Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russia drops 3-ton bomb on Russia, Belgorod region

[Unbeliever]

Wow, talk about the middle of nowhere, this is it!

[Hydra009]

Thankfully, none of the three bombs exploded.  That's incredibly lucky or some safety feature unknown to me or they're not putting these things together correctly.

And telegram reports that Belgorod's governor is ordering fire extinguishers to be distributed among the residents, which is wild if you think about it.  There's an accompanying picture of an 84-year-old babushka hunched over carrying a fire extinguisher that's about half her body weight.  I'm not sure why professional firefighters aren't enough or why someone's grandmother has to bridge that gap.

In my mind, it'd be way better to send civilians to shelters - you don't want civilians near fire for pretty self-explainatory reasons so it's a bit strange to deputize them as volunteer firefighters for any conflagration worse than burnt toast.

Coincidently, Belgorod region has had power problems due to a Ukrainian drone strike, so maybe it's best to just evacuate that whole region.  Have Putin make that buffer zone he dreams of.

[Hydra009]

I wish there was an actual news write-up about this, sadly it takes a couple of days for the press to catch up to breaking news and telegram stuff, but this is too bizarre/silly to pass up:



This is the turret of a BMP-1 put on a trailer and used as towed "artillery".  Heavy air quotes on that one, because it takes them forever to brace it with some sort of bracing legs made out of metal.  It can theoretically fire, but I'd hate to be either the loader or the gunner, because who knows what sort of accuracy or range you get with the kludged mess.





I've seen similar pictures in Syria (pictured above), but those were at least mounted on trucks to make Mad Max style technicals or turrets that at least made some sort of tactical sense (nice touches on the "camouflage" on that last one, the bright orange with a decidedly minimal amount of vegetation on it practically blends right in as a normal bush).  Hell, there's even a non-crazy version of this very idea seen a month ago by a far more competent group of Russians in Ukraine.  Those might last as long as an ice cube in Death Valley, but I could picture them firing at least twice before everyone dies.

This latest kludge might be able to park and maybe be halfway to being ready to fire its first shot before it gets hit by a drone and ain't nobody having a fun day after that.  It'd probably be safer to camp in the Chernobyl woods than to be anywhere near that turret in Ukraine.  And the setup and breakdown is so labor-intensive and time-intensive that it's extremely poorly suited for shoot-n-scoot tactics required in this sort of war.  Honestly, you'd be way better off just surrendering without a fight.  That's the best case scenario with this thing.  Any return fire at all - drones, artillery, mortars, small arms, thrown rocks, and it's game over.

[Dark Lightning]

Seeing this silliness, I'm reminded of an old Johnny Horton tune about the US fighting the British so many years ago-

We fired our cannon 'til the barrel melted down
So we grabbed an alligator to fight another round
We filled his head with cannonballs and powdered his behind,
And when we set the powder off, the 'gator lost his mind!

[Cassia]

Geez, Russia is all about artillery. They must be really getting desperate. I wonder if drones outrange Russia's big guns?

[Unbeliever]

I haven't heard The Battle of New Orleans in decades, but we sang it often when I was just a little whippersnapper! 🤣

[Hydra009]

Geez, Russia is all about artillery. They must be really getting desperate. I wonder if drones outrange Russia's big guns?

I'm not sure.  All I know is that Russia loses around 40-60 artillery per day, though I wonder how many of these are high-quality SPGs or rocket artillery and how many are just crummy towed guns or mortars.  All are technically artillery, but have very different capabilities and roles.  Like other portions of the Russian military, there is a definite trend towards less costly and less capable but faster and more numerous pieces of equipment.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Even though Russia suffers tremendous losses, Ukraine suffers heavy losses as well

Russia recently hit parked Ukrainian jets, destroying two and damaging four.  There have been several incidents like that this year and last year, though this one appears to be the most damaging.

[Hydra009]

Orban is in Kyiv today, which is strange.  No idea why.

The only thing I do know is that Putin will not attack Kyiv while he is there - it's considered bad manners to attack a friend.

[Hydra009]

He called on Zelenskyy (the one being attacked) to issue a ceasefire.  Why he didn't start with Putin (the one doing the attacking and whom he has a much friendlier stance towards) is anyone's guess.

Peace is something that people have often talked about regarding Ukraine.  Everyone wants a return of peace.  Zelenskyy wants a return to a peace where Ukraine is controlled by Ukrainians.  Putin wants a peace where Ukraine is controlled by Russians.  Some people who like to how do you say collaborate on peace (something like that) want a peace where Ukraine is partially controlled by Ukrainians and partially controlled by Russian occupiers who may at some later date advance further whenever they wish and maybe aid for Ukraine is much slower to arrive, if at all.  To them, peace is not so much a cessation of hostilities, but a cessation of resistance against hostilities.

[the_antithesis]

The only thing I do know is that Putin will not attack Kyiv while he is there - it's considered bad manners to attack a friend.

Yaknow, you say that...

[Hydra009]

This was on telegram a few days ago, and while obviously, Russian propagandists are saying that these are going to the front to "defend" Russia, that's not necessarily the case.  But if they are, I suspect that some but maybe not all of them would be converted into turtle tanks or at least "uparmored" with cope cages and/or cope pavilions.

T-62 is a favored chassis for turtle tanks due to it's...I'm going to be blunt here...very limited utility in combat engagements otherwise.  Its armor is simply not strong enough to withstand much of anything beyond small arms fire.

While they're not great, they're better than nothing at all, and Russia simply is sending whatever it has in storage while its only tank manufacturing plant builds more.

It's not good at all for Russia that its T-62s are such a common sight on the frontline.  Russia may be running low at some of its tank storage sites, but it's difficult to tell.  So don't get your hopes up quite yet.  Though it will be an interesting day when Russia can no longer field tanks but Ukraine can, that day probably won't get here for at least another year, maybe two.