Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Muslim terrorists are at work again in Russia.

One year to the day of Prigozhin's almost-rebellion.  The Dagestan locals are looking to make it a tradition.

I've read some preliminary reports about this incident.  I can't go into details because the details are still coming in.  But suffice it to say that it was shockingly violent and chaotic - it just goes to show how much Moscow's hold over the other regions has deteriorated.

[Hydra009]

In footage that I'm surprised isn't even the 4th most shocking thing I've seen today, a russian infantry took a grazing hit by a small fpv drone and was very quickly and casually Old Yellered by his nearby "comrade", who barely paused his march.

This dude almost certainly could have survived.  At the very least, there could've been some perfuctory attempt at first aid.  Instead, the other guy did his best Kristi Noem impression.  Barbarous.  Anybody like that in a western military unit would get court martialed or perhaps killed on sight by the rest of his squad.  Because you can't work with someone you can't trust and you can't trust someone who does stuff like that.

It just goes to show how little Russian lives are valued by other Russians.

[Hydra009]

Top recent news:

Ukraine hit a Russian command post  The telegram post reports several Russian officers as well as the commander KIA.  Awaiting confirmation.

Crimea river: Russian air defense reportedly did successfully intercept an ATACMS missile, but they bizarrely did it over a crowded beach, which inadvertently (I hope it was inadvertent) rained cluster munitions near civilians - civilians vacationing in AN ACTIVE WARZONE not far from a military base in a country they definitely weren't invited to - the dictionary definition of invasion.  I feel sorta bad that some civilians were reportedly hurt/killed - but jeez louise, Crimea ain't exactly known as the safest place to be.  They knew it was risky AF.  And it's not like the Ukrainians didn't warn Russian civilians to stay away from Crimea.  And this isn't exactly the first time Russians got a rude awakening at a Crimean beach, so there's a zero percent chance they didn't know it wasn't safe.  No excuses.

Speaking of excuses, Russia of course blames the US for this.  And once again, Ukraine only has ATACMS because Ukraine is at war.  Ukraine is only at war because they're invaded.  Putin is responsible for everything, so save the bellyaching for Putin.  Everything Russians have sown, he's planted.  He decided to invade Ukraine, so he's responsible for every single Ukrainian and Russian death there as the result of his war of choice.  He's also responsible for the enlargement of NATO, the complete alienation of Ukraine from Russia, and the isolation of Russia from the world, replaced with the embrace of tin-pot dictators like Kim Jong Un.

Satellite images confirm destruction of Russian warehouse used to store shahed drones

[Hydra009]

Russia summons US ambassador over Crimean missile attack

I hope they send this guy:


Russia again threatens

"You should ask my colleagues in Europe, and above all in Washington, the press secretaries, why their governments are killing Russian children," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

At least two children were killed in the attack on Sevastopol on Sunday, according to Russian officials. People were shown running from a beach near Sevastopol and some of the injured being carried off on sun loungers. Kyiv did not comment on the attack but denies targeting civilians.

That sort of grandstanding is giving off serious Kane in Tiberian Dawn vibes ("how could GDI do this??" *shoots cameraman*)

But I love answering dumb questions so I'll answer his dumbass question:

Every Russian who crosses from the internationally-recognized Russian border into Ukraine without permission should be considered dead.  Soldiers, men, women, children, etc.  All dead.  Dead from the instant they step foot onto Ukrainian soil without permission.  This is not to imply that they are targeted as Ukrainian children are targeted by Russian soldiers - Ukraine is full of landmines and unexploded bombs and drones and burning Russian vehicles and living Russian soldiers - all of which are a threat to children.

Russians entering Ukraine are entering a warzone at best and participating in atrocities at worst.  All of that is criminal activity - from simple trespassing all the way to crimes against humanity, like the intentional slaughter of civilians at Bucha.  If, by some miracle, these people don't die and are merely apprehended or escape back to Russia or some other fate, they should count their blessings and reflect on the recklessness of their behavior.

If Boris and Natasha decide to recklessly drag little Putin to Crimea and they get hurt, it's their own choice and their own fault and they should take accountability for their own actions.  Similarly, Tsar Putin should accept his own role in the deaths of thousands of Russians and should make good on his stated desire for peace and immediately put an end to the bloodshed by withdrawing invading Russian troops.

A nation waging a war of aggression - waging an especially cruel and brutal one at that - cannot cry over spilled blood.

[Cassia]

Holy crap. Just saw video where a Russian BMP slows, and the sappers working the road direct him through a cleared path marked with yellow tape......and the BMP follows the path and immediately hits a mine.....BOOM !

[Hydra009]

Holy crap. Just saw video where a Russian BMP slows, and the sappers working the road direct him through a cleared path marked with yellow tape......and the BMP follows the path and immediately hits a mine.....BOOM !

Filled with crew, too.  Possibly meat on top as well, afaik.

[Hydra009]

Shoigu!  Gerasimov!

ICC issues arrest warrants for Russia's two foremost war criminals after Putin and his Czar of child abduction

[Hydra009]

A bunch of bad news lately:

North Korea to send over some of its troops to Ukraine within a month or two.  Not to imply that they're some fearsome fighting force - they're not and they know that.  That's why they'll mostly be doing construction/engineering work in Donbass, freeing up Russian soldiers for more frontline duties.  At least, that's the theory.  In reality, it'll probably be the North Koreans on the front.

Russia has this weird habit of recruiting other countries' people to die in their wars (just ask Cuba, Syria, Nepal, India, and several African countries).  The theory is that Russians are willing to accept just about anything from Putin so long as they're not really affected, so they need catspaws to deflate Russian casualties.  But given just how willing both Putin and Russian citizens are to throw Russian lives away (~1200 casualties virtually every day with no end in sight) I dunno if I buy this idea.  I think that most Russians are perfectly okay with whatever and Tsar Putin no longer has to worry about what they like or don't like, it's just that Putin is desperate for more troops and he'll get them however he can.

I don't think this'll work out so well for Putin.  Ukraine chews through around 1200/day, so unless North Korea is planning on committing massive numbers, this is a delaying tactic at best and won't make any difference at all at worst.

Russia also expects to sign some sort of deal with Iran soon, likely on "energy projects" (Iran's nuclear program)  As much as I'd love to see Israel pull a South Korea and ramp up its aid to Ukraine in response, they've been pretty disappointing lately, so I wouldn't exactly hold my breath.  Though I do foresee unexplained explosions in Iran in the future.

And finally, US diplomat found dead in Kyiv Hotel which sounds super serious and possibly some sort of assassination.  But for those rare few of us who read beyond the headlines - it was an embassy attaché and the death was from natural causes, as far as anyone knows.  Sometimes, real life isn't like a Tom Clancy novel.  Sometimes, people just drop dead.  No shadowy assassin.  Hug your pets and pet your kids, folks.