Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Dniper power plant in critical condition and no longer supplying electricity

While this year's winter bombardment of the electric grid hasn't been quite a crippling as it was last year, the Russians have done a lot of damage to the thermal plants and hydroelectric plants.  And Ukraine has faced rolling blackouts at times.  Though this year, Russia and Russian-held territory in Ukraine has also suffered damage to its electrical grid and rolling blackouts somewhat.

While last winter was mostly Russia inflicting heavy damage to Ukraine, this year it was both sides inflicting heavy damage to each other.  So, while bad, some progress has been made.  Hopefully, this situation keeps progressing, perhaps to the point when Russia is at Ukraine's mercy, though I'm not sure what Russia could say in its defense in that situation.

[Hydra009]

In terms of being able to use Western arms to hit military targets in Russian territory, both the USA and Germany have softened their opposition.

Denmark supports such action.

The Netherlands has gone all out in support, allowing Ukraine to hit Russian territory with donated F-16s

"If you have the right to self-defense, there are no borders for the use of weapons. This is a general principle,"

I gotta say, that makes sense.

Belgium is taking the opposite approach, not allowing Ukraine any use of the donated F-16s within Russian borders.

"However, the agreement is extremely explicit. We are talking about fighter jets that Ukrainians can use on Ukrainian territory. This is the arrangement that we reached, and I want to stick to it," the Belgian Prime Minister emphasised.

That's one way to spin it.  Leaving out of course that air defense becomes a lot easier when you take out the launchers.

This move leaves Italy and Belgium (and presumably, Hungary) as the main opponents of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

[Hydra009]

Russian telegram says that a column of Russian vehicles in Kursk region moving to join the war was hit.  First, the vehicles in the front and rear, then the ones in the middle.  Some of the smaller vehicles dispersed as best they could, but the losses were heavy and the convoy's mission was of course put on hold.

All of this is unconfirmed and not from a particularly trustworthy source, so take it with a huge grain of salt until confirmed by official/reputable sources.

But if true, it would be another example of Ukraine being very proactive with its mandate to hit military targets in Russia in self-defense and help show that such moves have a large and beneficial effect on the war effort (from the Ukrainian perspective)

[Hydra009]

In Belgorod - voted Russia's most flammable city two years running - one Russian official was killed by a (previously) unexploded bomb, three more are injured

They were inspecting the bomb when it detonated - presumably huddled around the thing while using the osha-approced safety squint.

I can't even say that it was definitely a Ukrainian bomb since there has been a string of "friendly" bombs there due to malfunctioning Russian glide bombs.

[Unbeliever]

I had always assumed that all bombs are "previously unexploded."
🤔

[Unbeliever]

Apparently, Russian journalists are pissed off at George Clooney! They're going to "hunt him down."

[Dark Lightning]

Apparently, Russian journalists are pissed off at George Clooney! They're going to "hunt him down."

He'd better stay away from the sushi.

[Hydra009]

Another Turtle tank got knocked out.  Hit a mine at almost exactly the same place as another destroyed tank.  What are the odds?

[Cassia]

Another Turtle tank got knocked out.  Hit a mine at almost exactly the same place as another destroyed tank.  What are the odds?

Probably hard for them to see where they are going....They need a 360 degree periscope which will be the first thing a drone destroys.

[Hydra009]

Press X to doubt

[Hydra009]

It's official, the Russian convoy in Kursk region of Russia was wiped out

Footage uploaded by Ukraine's Defense Ministry, and that's as official as it gets.

The Russians correctly described the front vehicle getting hit.  It smoked more than Cheech and Chong's van from the onset.  A few other Kamaz trucks got hit hard, mostly in the front of the vehicle until they caught on fire.  Whatever supplies they were carrying are gone.  I'm not sure how many escaped, afaik they didn't get them all, but they definitely got around half of them.

Kind of a pathetic convoy, to be honest.  No heavy vehicles, just kamaz trucks.  We've come a long way from that gigantic convoy headed towards Kyiv in 2022.  There are only shadows of that now.  While Russia's not out of tanks yet, I have noticed that they've been relying heavily on kamaz trucks, civilian vehicles, golf carts, and motorcycles.  Maybe they're prioritizing a more nimble approach, as Ukraine did long ago, which is pretty smart for them.  But in Russia's case, I feel like it's more due to ongoing logistics issues than tactical genius.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine destroys a s-300 launcher in Belgorod region

Russia's been getting hit hard along the border areas lately.  Good.

[Hydra009]

Elevated infantry losses continue, without major territorial gains.

65 artillery losses.  Very high, since they usually lose 30-40

There's recent footage a fairly big Russian armored column getting demolished.  So that and infantry losses near Vovschansk and Soladar/Chasiv Yar, that kamaz convoy getting hit, and various strikes in Crimea and Belgorod regions afaik makes up most of the losses recently.

[Hydra009]

Turkish official reportedly wants Turkey to join BRICS

Asked whether Turkey would want to join BRICS during a talk at the Center for China and Globalization on Monday, Fidan said "we would like to of course, why would we not?". However, he did not elaborate further.

[Hydra009]

They retired the Armata tanks and brought these bad boys to war.  Clearly, Ukraine is dealing with ultra-geniuses, lol.

While I don't doubt that these have some cross-country ability, I very much doubt that they're suitable for battlefield conditions.  There's a reason why their Ukrainian counterparts are using electric motorcycles instead of scooters.

At least they haven't festooned them with cope cages...yet.