Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Cassia]

So Finland AND Sweden. Way to go Putin. And if Ukraine pulls this off, they could be next. Russia has friends too, lol. The new Soviet shall be N Korea, Iran, Belarus, Syria, and Russia lol.

[Hydra009]

Lots of bad news lately.

An Abrams was destroyed in Ukraine.  An Archer, too.  Sadly, there are losses in war and even though Ukraine knocks out on average a little more than 3 vehicles for every one they lose and generally lose less important equipment, they lose some important stuff too from time to time.  It happens.

Ukrainian forces have pulled back from Sieverne and Stepove villages, both of which are close to Adiivka.  In the 2001 census, Stepove was 62 people, so village is a generous way of putting it.  Ukraine once again has to cede some ground to preserve its fighting strength.

Several Ukrainian grain trucks stuck at the Polish border were cut open and their contents spilled out into the road.  There has also been reports of nails and screws strewn all over the road near one of the border crossings.  Ukrainian civilians die as a direct result of this halting of supplies and it seems that the Polish "protestors" don't care (one had a sign welcoming Putin to Poland, complete with a Soviet Union flag).  The Polish government doesn't seem particularly keen on breaking up these roadblocks or arresting perpetrators of criminal activity.  It's such a shame, because Poland and Ukraine had such great relations, albeit with some hiccups, before this.  Now, Poland is associated with provocateurs and saboteurs and fellow travelers.

North Korea has sent 6,700 shipping containers to Russia, perhaps 3 million shells in total.  Meanwhile, Europe struggles with handing over 300,000 shells.  Granted, the European shells are vastly better quality than the North Korean ones.  Still, it's not enough and it would be a crying shame - as well as a completely avoidable humanitarian catastrophe - if Russia takes a swathe of territory simply because Ukraine runs low on shells.  And as far as the US goes, despite Biden applying a lot of pressure on Johnson to pass Ukrainian aid, Johnson has yet to commit to anything with Ukraine and as far as I can tell, the situation there has not changed.  So I remain cautiously...cautious as far as Ukrainian aid goes.  Would be a nice time to crack open those frozen Russian funds though, hint hint Biden.

US allies have been watching this unfold and Taiwan is understandably upset.  It seems that democracies cannot come to each other's aid as effectively as dictatorships since democracies can be stalled at several vulnerable junctures while dictatorships only have one.  I sincerely hope this is only a short-term hiccup and not a long-term reality or Putin may be proven right, facilitating further aggression by knowing that Western unity is fleeting and easily disrupted by bad actors.

[Hydra009]

In better news, Russia lost two jets today and a Russian war criminal who had personally murdered captive soldiers was himself killed in a car bomb.

[Cassia]

I can see the future. It's easy if you try. With the Russian dictatorship controlling Kyiv, a madman in the Whitehouse, a very Christian senate and church-run court, and the urban voting districts destroyed, the Republican patriots can celebrate with a goose-stepping military parade attended by our new friends, Putin, Assad, and fat Kim. The xtreme Dems who went "independent" because old Joe did not inspire them enough, better change their style when they venture outside their doors; they are often very easy to spot with their ear gauges, tats and blue hair. I'm sure Musk will rally around Trump and create a start-up build that giant wall around the country. Finally, we will all be safe from dirty criminal immigrants as we accelerate towards climate Armageddon and that pending nuclear war with China, China, China. Trump's revenge against the false Republicans will be very entertaining. Social Security gets repealed because we have mandatory 401ks for some. Finally, we will fix the election fraud and voting machines, and end the Clinton/Soros/Jewish elite child sex ring. We can kill off all the damn lizard people, give out free Ivermectin for all and put those pesky urban blacks back in jail, Yey!

[Hydra009]

Don't get me wrong, it's not all doom and gloom.  No one's taking Kyiv, at least in the foreseeable future.  There is still significant aid coming to Ukraine despite setbacks.  It's just that I post about Russian stuff going boom so much that I don't often cover the equally real other side of the picture - Ukrainian hardships and uncertainty.

I said this during 2014 and it feels equally apropos now - I feel like this is very much a rehersal for similar acts of aggression down the line.  If we don't put up a united front and put a stop to this in an unusually forceful way, then dictatorships will take this as weakness and license to commit even worse stuff down the line.

[Hydra009]

Silver linings:

Half of North Korea's shells don't work properly.  I'm not quite sure what exactly they mean by that.  Don't explode at all?  Don't fully explode?  Explode in the chamber?

Also, Russian munitions have gotten worse, though I'm not sure how much of that is due to sanctions and how much of that is due to disruptions caused Ukrainian drones and saboteurs.  Also, just the strain of sending people who would otherwise be factory workers off to war might be affecting things.

This is very much a resource war, decided by the acquisition and deployment of resources.  Whoever runs out of shells or tanks or soldiers first loses, and Ukraine starts with less of everything than Russia, so this aid is literally the difference between life or death for hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions or tens of millions.

[Cassia]

Don't get me wrong, it's not all doom and gloom.  No one's taking Kyiv, at least in the foreseeable future.  There is still significant aid coming to Ukraine despite setbacks.  It's just that I post about Russian stuff going boom so much that I don't often cover the equally real other side of the picture - Ukrainian hardships and uncertainty.

I said this during 2014 and it feels equally apropos now - I feel like this is very much a rehersal for similar acts of aggression down the line.  If we don't put up a united front and put a stop to this in an unusually forceful way, then dictatorships will take this as weakness and license to commit even worse stuff down the line.

There are not a lot of examples of dictators turning peaceful once they start invading. Ah, but it will be pretty gloomy this time if Trump wins. The first US dictator. And it won't be for a day.

[Hydra009]

Estonia detains 10 Russian agents

[Hydra009]

GOP.ru

[Hydra009]

Ukraine shoots down three more Russian jets



Here's an article about Russia's dwindling air presence in Ukraine that was published 9 hours ago and is somehow outdated already and undercounts Russian losses significantly.  The Ukrainians work fast!

[Hydra009]

Meanwhile, Russian air defense in action:

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

I saw the video of the failed Russian assault he talked about.  Basically, a Russian armored transport went down a dirt road, nearly got hit by Ukrainian artillery but managed to get to the disembark point intact.  Most of the troops dismounted and took point by shrubs and a wooden fence (probably not the best idea, but there's hardly any cover to speak of there - everything is flat)  The armored transport tried to get away but a Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit it and it was quickly engulfed in a secondary explosion.  No one got out, so presumably that's a total loss.  Then a Bradley took cover behind a burned-out vehicle and started annihilating the dismounted Russian infantry.  They never stood a chance.  They took "naps" next to something that was on fire.  The Russian troops were unfazed by the spreading fire and no one moved away from it or at all.  Unless some escaped off-camera (unlikely but possible), that's a 100% loss.

Bottom line: using infantry against an infantry-fighting vehicle seems like a bad strat.

On Russian telegram, there was a poster bitter that none of the Russian soldiers were supplied with anti-vehicle weapons.  Hey, you get what you pay for.  If you want to give them each a mosin and airsoft armor, be my guest.  No such thing as a cheap war.  Pay now or pay dearly later.

[Hydra009]

Germany refuses to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, worries about the consequences

Oops, my bad.  That was actually an article about Iran agreeing to supply missiles to Russia to rain down on Ukrainian cities.  Curiously, there's nothing about worrying about the consequences here.  Weird.  Real article

Finland: Ukraine is free to bomb Russia with our weapons

'Everything' on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says

I don't want to be too hard on Germany because they've done a lot of good things lately, but now's a great time to step up to the plate.

[Cassia]

I think that same video of the Bradely just popped up on the twitter. Yeah, I'll just drop you rookies right here in front of this chain gun with its 30mm exploding ammo. Good luck fellas!

At least some Muscovites showed to Navalny's funeral.