Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

At least 6 Russians attending makeshift funerals for Navalny arrested then given draft notices for Putin's war in Ukraine

I've always wondered about this strategy of sending political enemies off to war - it seems somewhat...not smart...to give your political enemies guns and grenades and then ask them to die for you.  Anyone know if that works out well?  Shoigu?  Gerasimov?

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There's unconfirmed reporters of another strike on a Russian base/training center, this time in Crimea.  The Russians are very upset, with one guy demanding accountability from their leaders.  Ha!  That guy will either have a career doing standup or crushing rocks in Siberia.

Also, there's footage of the Ukrainians hitting a gathering of around two dozen Russians on some hill in Kherson region.  No caution or common sense of any kind.  They literally gathered everyone shoulder to shoulder and got in a nice little circle like they were planning on getting blown up.  They got absolutely flattened.  Game Over.

[Unbeliever]

Maybe it was a drunken circle jerk.

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Censored footage of the strike at 3:20.  Obviously, not safe for youtube, but the screenshot gives you the general impression of the sorts of casualties we're talking about and their moronically tight-knit formation, where everyone packed together tightly mere moments before the strike, exactly as depicted at 4:17.  Completely exposed and oblivious.  No one wandered away and survived by accident.  An extremely well-timed strike.

[Hydra009]

Dual American-Russian citizen arrested in Russia for donating to Ukrainian charity

Quite frequently, there has been a lot of negative attention directed towards people in Russia for expressing views against Putin's narrative or even just having something in their possession that offends Putinists' sensibilities, like wearing a light blue backpack, as one kid did during the early part of the war and was filmed being bullied because of it.  There was one today supposedly of a Russian displaying a Ukrainian flag on their roof, but it turns out that it was because of roof repair - the insulation folded back inadvertently created a blue-yellow "flag".

[Hydra009]

The past week has consistently been elevated, usually >1000 casualties with heavy artillery losses as well as logistics vehicle losses, an underappreciated contributor to the war effort compared to tanks and ships.

Plane losses have notably climbed as well.  I know one plane doesn't seem like much, but it's been one every day for the past week, which adds up quick.  Russia doesn't have a huge amount of aircraft operating in Ukraine to begin with, and notable because aircraft losses have normally not been high.

[Hydra009]

Sweden supplies Ukraine with anti-sub missile

Although Torpedo 47 sounds a tad generic (who named it, the Borg?) it can fire from a variety of platforms to hit ships/submarines with a range of over 20km.  As we have seen from Ukrainian sea drone footage, getting nice and close isn't a problem.  It also has a speed of >40 knots (~74km/hour) so it's fairly quick.  Might be handy against Russian submarines, the last uncontested *notes one submarine kill* ..mostly uncontested portion of the Black Sea Fleet Remnants.

[Hydra009]

Even funnier the second time:  Ukraine shoots down Russian AWACS

Ironically enough, not long after Russia threatened to shoot down a French AWACS operating in international waters (aka NOT Russian airspace)

[Hydra009]

A-50?  More like a 50% chance it lands in one piece.

And although the Russians say they shot it down themselves (4D chess move right there), they're likely motivated to do so to deny Ukraine agency, as is often the case.  They never admit that Ukraine has any power of its own.  And while it does have help, Ukraine is the one doing all the heavy lifting and making it happen.

Also, the Russians say that there's no way Ukraine could make such a long distance shot, but Patriots combined with Ukrainian ingenuity and maybe a little bit of audacity and there might be a way for Ukraine to use Patriots in an unexpected ways.  But who knows.  Only the Ukrainians know for sure, as the Ruzzian pilots are clearly not privy to such information.  Unfortunate for them.

*edit - Or a Ukrainian Soviet-era S-200.  Either is good.

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy says that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war

This is troubling, but not unexpected.  Considering that the Russians are now at >400k casualties, and Zelenskyy recently said that the ratio is 5:1, I would've expected that number to be higher.

Earlier in the war, when Russian casualties were a little less than half what they are now, the Ukrainian defense minister said their military losses were less than the losses Turkey experienced during their devastating earthquake.  A tactless comparison of course, but likely factually true at the time.

[Cassia]

Zelenskyy says that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war

This is troubling, but not unexpected.  Considering that the Russians are now at >400k casualties, and Zelenskyy recently said that the ratio is 5:1, I would've expected that number to be higher.

Earlier in the war, when Russian casualties were a little less than half what they are now, the Ukrainian defense minister said their military losses were less than the losses Turkey experienced during their devastating earthquake.  A tactless comparison of course, but likely factually true at the time.

Lots of talk from even younger Americans how Ukraine can't win. Right. What the world needs now is an emboldened, aging popular dictator with an evil plan who just won a major conquest by killing literal tons of people.

[Hydra009]

Russian casualties taking Adiivka likely surpass entire Soviet-Afghan war

More Russian soldiers are likely to have died seizing the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka than in the 10-year Soviet-Afghan war, the think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.

Russian forces began their brutal campaign to seize the town in eastern Ukraine in October and finally succeeded earlier this month.

However, the victory came at a high cost — Ukrainian military officials estimate that up to 47,000 Russians were killed or injured in the battle, along with scores of tanks and fighting vehicles.

By comparison, up to 25,000 Soviet soldiers are believed to have been killed during the entire Soviet-Afghan war.

War analysts and Ukrainian commanders noted that Russia's tactics to take Avdiivka often involved "human wave" assaults, in which Ukrainian positions were overwhelmed with large numbers of Russian soldiers on foot.

Many of these soldiers, who were often ill-equipped or poorly trained, died in high numbers.

It's worrying that Russia is capturing territory at all, but they're paying a high - and unsustainable - price for it.  Russia can't go all the way to Kyiv with these tactics - it's mathematically impossible.  But they can win short-term victories that dishearten Ukrainians allies and maybe sow doubt over Ukraine's ability to defend itself.  And it also gives Putin a poll bump - not that he needs it seeing as Russia hasn't had real elections in a very long time - but it keeps the Russian public behind him and minimizes the sway of potentially dangerous dissent...for now.

[Hydra009]

Lots of talk from even younger Americans how Ukraine can't win. Right. What the world needs now is an emboldened, aging popular dictator with an evil plan who just won a major conquest by killing literal tons of people.

Yeah, a guy a work noted it and said that the Ukrainians shouldn't get weapons since they don't know how to fight.  My neck spun around so fast I thought I would break it.  He took it back when the second A-50 went down in flames.

Almost any country in similar circumstances as Ukraine actually would have been conquered in a week.  While Russian forces didn't exactly live up to their pre-war reputation, they absolutely could have forced a capitulation if it weren't for dogged resistance, innovative tactics, and intense and largely successful lobbying for foreign aid.  These guys absolutely do know how to fight to the point that now they could teach European and US forces a thing or two.

[Hydra009]

Hungarian parliament approves Sweden for joining NATO

Of the 194 members of parliament who voted, just six rejected Sweden's accession.

Huh, I wonder why Hungary changed their--

The two sides appeared to reconcile, agreeing on a deal that would see Hungary acquire four new Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets.

Oh, there it is.  I suppose that's how the sausage gets made.

Afaik, there are no more snags.  Sweden will formally submit the paperwork to the US, they'll sign, and that's that.

[Hydra009]

Logged out: Ukrainian JDAMS hit two buildings used by Russian drone operators