Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Ukraine to soon receive US Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB)

Russia condemned the possible transfer of GLSDBs as the first reports emerged, saying it would be an "extremely dangerous" escalation of the war.

Let's hope!  Shouldn't have poked the hornet's nest, Vlad.

150km range.  Longer range than HIMARS, shorter range than Storm Shadow and ATACMS.  They're also much, much cheaper.  One GLSDB missile costs about $40k, while each M31 missile (the ones fired by the M270 MLRS) costs about $500,000 and ATACMS which can cost over a million usd and Storm Shadow which can cost over 2 million usd.

This will help Ukraine hit longer-range targets - a good chunk of their supply lines and Crimea - on the cheap.  And on targets not important enough to waste a Storm Shadow on.  Conserving ammo is an unfortunate necessity with substantial US aid still very much in doubt.

Additionally, the missile itself can adjust its trajectory to hit targets from any angle, which is big.  We saw in St Petersburg that Russian air defense had a difficult time hitting Ukrainian drones because they attacked from an unexpected direction.  Presumably, Ukraine could use that same trick again and again.

[Cassia]

I saw a report that Putin is finally getting a small degree of pushback from angry soldier's wives out in the streets with signs. He will probably wait till he wins his sham election and then bust them.

[Mr.Obvious]

I saw a report that Putin is finally getting a small degree of pushback from angry soldier's wives out in the streets with signs. He will probably wait till he wins his sham election and then bust them.

So many widdows. So many windows, so little time.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine strikes Russian airbase in Crimea

The extent of the damage isn't clear yet, but there were multiple explosions at that location as well as explosions in other parts of Crimea.  Like a radar station hit in the northern part of Crimea (the airbase is located in the southwestern tip)

Russia, as is typical, claims that everything got shot down, air defense is working perfectly, and no damage to aviation happened.  We shall see.

[Hydra009]

CIA chief says Russian economic isolation destines it to be an economic vassal of China

Before anyone sees that headline and assumes that Russia's economy just implodes and they can't afford a pitchfork to attack Ukraine with...yeah, that's not true.  We're talking about decades here.

It's more like Russia's economy sags and sags and Russia becomes more beholden to China for just about everything, especially military hardware.  I mean, it's not quite even two years into a major conflict and we're seeing some serious economic damage and a major demographic crisis that has been exacerbated by the war.  That sort of thing doesn't get better quickly or easily.  And it definitely doesn't get better with a prolonged and increasingly costly war.

Like everything else, we shall see.  But barring a complete 180 by EU countries (we're talking really unlikely stuff like all the sanctions are lifted, Germany switches on NordStream, other countries reconnect to the Russian electric grid, etc), Russia's very much reliant on its few remaining allies, a handful of 'Stans, and China.

[Hydra009]

Here's a doozy from Russian telegram:



"defenseless peaceful missile ship" Suuure.

Also, simultaneously claiming that it's a dastardly terrorist attack and that it's not true (pick a lane!) while also apparently denying Ukraine even the agency to lie - nope, it's Lenin for some strange reason.

This is the kind of pants-on-fire lying that is incredibly common in Russian telegram/media about Ukraine.

When Ukraine and Russia make claims and counter-claims, figuring out exactly what happened can be tricky, but figuring out who is lying is the easiest thing in the world.

[Hydra009]

There's now footage of the "defenseless missile ship" which destroyed all Ukrainian drones attacking it (with what?  I thought it was defenseless)  It is technically true that at least one of the drones was destroyed, since they detonate on contact.

(Moneyshot at 1m25sec - a shot roughly $60-70 million in the making!)

Reportedly, the ship began sinking, rolled to the side, and sank not long after getting hit.  Ukraine at least claims that it was destroyed.  I hope those "peaceful" Russians were really good swimmers or they're likely to embark on a peaceful journey to the Moskva.

[Hydra009]

[Cassia]

Huh. Looking around a bit. The US ended up with one of those boats by the way of Germany. It was scrapped last year.

Chris Nardi, the Chief Operating Officer for Battleship Cove, also noted that "The Hiddensee, as designed by the Russian shipyard ... they were designed to be definitely disposable in terms of the way they were

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_corvette_Hiddensee

[Hydra009]

Ecuador to transfer Soviet equipment to the US, drawing Russian ire

The Ecuadorian government announced last month that it would send what it called "Ukrainian and Russian scrap metal" to the U.S. in exchange for modern equipment worth $200 million, according to Reuters.

Washington reportedly plans to transfer the arms received from Ecuador to Ukraine to help the country in its fight against Russian invading forces.

Fantastic deal for them.

Russia reportedly urged Ecuador not to transfer the equipment, claiming that it violated the terms of the sale.

Aww what'sa matter?  Did some big bad country break the terms of the deal?  Like Russia violated the security guarantees it gave to Ukraine?  Like Russia is violating pretty much the entire Geneva Accord every day in Ukraine?

[Cassia]

Huh. Looking around a bit. The US ended up with one of those boats by the way of Germany. It was scrapped last year.

Chris Nardi, the Chief Operating Officer for Battleship Cove, also noted that "The Hiddensee, as designed by the Russian shipyard ... they were designed to be definitely disposable in terms of the way they were

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_corvette_Hiddensee

Looking at it a little more, that vessel has a radar-controlled gatling gun. How the heck did drones get past that? Was Ivan having a little Putin branded wodka party

[Hydra009]

Russian telegram/twitter can be downright hilarious sometimes.



Apparently, this guy needs a new set of glasses.  Kinda hard to miss the cannon, lol.



For comparison, Ukraine started the war with about 1000 tanks compared to Russia's 3,400.  And Ukraine did lose roughly 550 tanks and an unknown number of armored vehicles.  Still, unless Russia counts every single vehicle - including civilian vehicles - in that tally, it doesn't add up to 15k.

[Hydra009]

Another General bites the dust

Lieutenant General killed at Belbek airbase in Crimea on the 1/30/2023 strike, likely from a SCALP/Storm Shadow explosion.

https://i.imgur.com/dJJsU8D.mp4

[Hydra009]

A Russian pilot was shot at Engels airbase in Russia

Ukrainian media speculates that it might be an assassination plot, though it could be a run-of-the-mill attempted murder or possibly accidental.

HUR didn't claim responsibility for the assassination attempt but hinted that it was involved.

"We remind you that retribution awaits all war criminals - we know your names, addresses, car numbers, usual routes and habits," the agency said.

Intriguing.  But that's their boilerplate statement whenever anything bad happens in Russia.  Sometimes, they cause some very unexpected, very distressing events within Russian borders.  More often, they don't.  I suppose we won't know for sure until after the war.

But for now, all I can say with certainty is that the Russian pilot was shot.  We don't know who did it or why or even his current condition.

[Hydra009]

Russian tanks playing bumper cars is certainly a sight I didn't think I'd see today.  No wonder Russia criminalized insulting the reputation of the Russian military.  But what reputation is there to insult?

And for almost two months now, there is still no appearance by Gerasimov.  Shoigu!  Gerasimov!  Marco!  Polo!

Jeez, after seeing those Russian POWs on the return trip to mother Russia, it seems Russia not only has a demographic problem, but also an inbreeding depression problem.  Probably also a fetal alcohol problem.

Also, I looked it up and I'm pretty sure that Article 105 refers to murder and Article 160 refers to embezzlement, but I could be wrong.  Article 105, Cargo 300, why do you guys always have to have euphemisms or code words for stuff??  I feel like I have to use a code wheel to understand half of what these guys are saying.  Just be direct!