Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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It can't be too hard to buy off a few Russians either.

Yeah.  If money is what motivates them to fight Ukraine, money can also motivate them to fight Russia.

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Russia accidentally bombs it own territory

The strike basically gutted six buildings but miraculously, no one was harmed - according to Russian authorities.  Maybe they were all out shopping for milk that day, who knows.

Local residents complain that an entire street was destroyed and about a dozen houses were damaged.

6 houses, a dozen houses.  A tiny, tiny minor discrepancy.  But definitely no one was hurt, every Russian source stressed, unsuspiciously.

I'm kinda late to this story because yet again, I mistakenly thought it was old news - basically the same thing happened last April.  History certainly does rhyme.  Also, when this story first broke, Russian telegram denied it or claimed that the Ukrainians did it, so it took a while for the truth to come out - and perhaps it hasn't completely come out.  It's something to bear in mind when Russian media tries to pin civilian damage on Ukraine.

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The one day where I don't check breaking news...

Crimea was hit hard today, Ukraine struck air defenses and an important command center

Ukraine earlier said it had struck a Russian military command post near Sevastopol and a military unit near the city of Yevpatoria, in separate strikes on the Black Sea peninsula, which was annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2014.

"Not only one command post was hit, really powerful combat work took place over the past 24 hours, including causing serious damage to the defense system on the Crimean peninsula," Ukraine military spokesperson Natalia Gumenyuk said, RBC Ukraine reported on Friday.

Unconfirmed reports circulated on Russian Telegram channels on Friday that 23 Russian military personnel were killed in the attacks, including five high-ranking officers and at least nine special forces soldiers.

Unfounded rumors also swirled that Russia's top general, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, was killed in the attack.

For those who don't know, Gerasimov, along with Shoigu and Putin are essentially the head of the snake so to speak and oversee the whole invasion.  Those three people are also the only ones with access to Russia's nuclear arsenal.  Suffice it to say that him buying the big one would be HUGE.

But don't uncork the champagne quite yet.  This isn't confirmed and likely wouldn't be confirmed either way and we'll just have to wait and see if he makes any personal appearances.  If he disappears for weeks or months, then it'll be pretty clear that something has happened.

The fact that he hasn't said a peep in these past 12 hours is somewhat encouraging.  So don't uncork anything, but it's a good idea to set the bottle on the counter along with some nice glasses, bottle opener, and maybe some confetti (technically, trash) just in case.  In lieu of champagne, Ukrainian vodka (called horilka, which means flammable spirits) is also acceptable.

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[Unbeliever]

Apparently Putin is begging his remaining allies to supply him with weapons.
Any country that supplies such weapons should be sanctioned.

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Apparently Putin is begging his remaining allies to supply him with weapons.
Any country that supplies such weapons should be sanctioned.

Agreed.  And indeed pressure is put on such countries, but it is too sporadic and slap-on-the-wrist imo.

Sponsoring a war of aggression and genocide-in-progress should make headlines and be extremely alienating, through both public sector and private sector reactions.  Countries should be scarced of the consequences should their support of Putin become known.  Sadly, this is not the case.

And of course, Putin's biggest supporters are already pariah states, and it's not like you can cut off someone who's already been cut off.

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Ukraine conducts border raid on Russia

Russian border guards were expecting a visit from the brass, but got an entirely different sort of visit instead.  One designed to hamper reinforcements and also further degrade the enemy's morale.

According to the intelligence, the top leadership of the Russian Armed Forces planned to conduct an inspection at Russian positions in the Grayvoronsky district of Belgorod region due to complaints from personnel about service conditions.

Before the arrival of the Moscow "inspectors", the ordinary invaders began to fuss and they began to carry out active engineering work.

In order to inflict losses on the enemy and to undermine their moral and psychological state, officers of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine planned and carried out a special operation.

The Ukrainians mined the road, set up an ambush, and attacked Russian forces.  Losses are currently unknown.

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Ukraine hits command post at Saki airbase in Crimea

The Ukrainian Air Force wrote that all targets were destroyed.

Russia partially confirmed this, stating that it "intercepted" four missiles there.  I note that it has become something of a in-joke on telegram that Russia considers a direct hit on its equipment to be a neutralization of a Ukrainian missile.

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I can confirm what he says about Krynky.  The footage I saw made it out to be a mini-Vulhedar, with at least 5 burning Russian armored vehicles and some drones handing out naps.  Though of course, I was watching the highlights as opposed to the raw feed, giving me a somewhat misleading impression.  The official figures are a bit more modest.  Though taking out a Grad rocket launcher, a mortar, a boat, 5 armored vehicles, and various surveillance/comm/observation/UAV points is not a bad day's work at all.

Free tip for the Russians: no more than 1 man per foxhole.  5 in one hole makes for an incredibly tempting target and very efficient use of Ukrainian munitions.  Let's just say that everyone fears dying alone except for Russians.

I have heard stories about Krynky being some sort of deathtrap for Ukrainian troops - and to be fair, they are heavily attacked by Russian forces, particularly Russian artillery and gliding bombs dropped from plane (this decreased dramatically but only temporarily after Russia mysteriously lost several of its planes in quick succession).  And it is true that it really, really sucks on the ground level and of course is a very dangerous posting.

But on the strategic level, holding this territory - much less expanding the bridgehead - does several very important things for Ukraine:
1) ties up significant amounts of Russian forces, particularly their paratroopers and aviation
2) generates very disproportionate attrition
3) undermines Russian morale - it drives them crazy that the Ukrainians are not settling into static positions on their side of the river but are instead menacing Russian positions and threatening Crimea
4) quite literally paves the way for an eventual counterattack towards Crimea

F-16s from Denmark have been delayed - the headlines say 6 months, but the text is more like up to 6 months - as in a 6-month deadline.  The bottom line is that both Ukraine and Denmark expect Ukraine to have F-16s in the first half of 2024, which I guess is likely by May or June at the latest.

And Denys's dark humor about Putin's meeting with bereaved Russian families and being jarringly upbeat about human tragedy is quite spot on.  This is nothing but a photo op for him.  Obviously, he doesn't care in the slightest if Russian soldiers live or die.  He cares about spending the lives of 1000 troops like I care about spending $2 for a Coke at the vending machine.  In fact, the great dictator just issued a decree allowing for abducted Ukrainian children to be given Russian citizenship - in other words, have their Ukrainian identity completely erased and replaced with a Russian identity.  I remind everyone that this meets the textbook definition of genocide.  He also wishes to grant foreign mercenaries citizenship.  Suffice it to say that Putin is currently like Omniman towards the end of Invincible season 1, talking about human mortality, the family pet, and the effortlessness of "making another kid".  Truly despicable stuff.

Anyway, on a more positive note, Ukraine received a Skynex air defense system from Germany.  Turns drones into swiss cheese at a fraction of the cost of a Patriot.  The article says 31 mile range but Europe in general and Ukraine in particular use kilometers so I'll translate - 50km range.  Stick one of them near the frontline or a major city and suddenly Russian drones and aviation have to watch their step or risk getting shredded.  Ukrainian air defense already destroy a majority of Russian drones whenever Russia launches a mass drone strike.  Expect that figure to rapidly increase in the vicinity of a Skynex.

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For want of a nail...

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Reportedly - and I'll still kinda iffy on this story - the Russians shot at their own paratroopers at the base near Rostov-on-Don (major military base in Russia)

Stormtrooper marksmanship, so reportedly only bagged two.  Too incompetent to be very deadly while being incompetent, sadly.

It dovetails nicely with a Ukrainian statement that Russian friendly fire incidents surge

While it is tempting to chaulk this up to the Ukrainians "casting shade" and obviously having a vested interest in portraying their enemy negatively, as the article states, "While Shtupun did not provide further details of Russian friendly fire incidents, there have been numerous documented cases in recent months."  A lot of this stuff is documented, so it's not like it's just being made up.

The artillery fire on the Russian soldiers retreating near Opytne back in September was widely reported and discussed by both sides, with the Russians lamenting the poor communications between infantry units and artillery units leading to friendly fire incidents, something that hasn't greatly changed since then.

Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Tavria grouping of troops, said continuing heavy losses among Moscow's troops means "the level of morale and psychological condition is very low."

Speaking to national television, he added: "The invaders are scared so they shoot at everything that moves.

"There have been more friendly fire incidents lately, involving both infantry and drones."

Shtupun also said there has been an increase in the number of Russian soldiers refusing orders to assault Ukrainian positions.

"Russian armored vehicle crews are sabotaging participation in assaults in various ways," he said.

All of that makes logical sense considering Russia's ongoing meatwave tactics with poor odds of survival and Ukraine's mastery of FPV drones.  Some Russian units have shown before and after footage of such advances and it's the stuff of nightmares.  Such soldiers are undoubtedly highly motivated to find some sort of reason to not advance.

This is fantastic news for Ukraine, but unfortunately, it's not as widespread as it could/should be and afaik Russian surrenders are still more involuntary than voluntary.  Every little bit helps, though.

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The Ukrainians released footage of the friendly fire incident, taken by a Ukrainian drone.  It happened at night.  Russian soldiers on foot travelling down a road followed closely by sustained artillery bombardment.  The drone operator was very surprised and remarked that "they shoot their own" and then said that Ukrainian forces were long gone from that position.  Apparently the Russian soldiers were misidentified and heavily bombarded by Russian artillery for considerable time, suffering an unknown amount of both kia and wounded.

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Ukrainian Intelligence secures $1.5 billion usd worth of Russian military tech documents

The Defense Intelligence press service reported receiving 100 gigabytes of classified data from the Russian company Special Technological Center LLC (STC).

This company produces military equipment used by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine.

According to blogger Apostle Dmitry, whose project was involved in the operation, the secret information was seized from the Russian enterprise due to employees who were dissatisfied with corruption and the policies of the company's management.

The technical data obtained from the Russian military-industrial complex should help the Ukrainian military fight more effectively against the Russian army's weapons.

Some of the acquired documents pertain not only to existing technologies but also to prospective developments that could contribute to the advancement of Ukrainian weaponry.

Drones, electronic warfare systems, communications including satellite radio, computer chips used in various Russian missiles (though not the long-range bombardment ones afaik).  This opens up a LOT of potential vulnerabilities to be exploited.  Hopefully, the Russians may get hit with surprise system failures at inopportune moments...

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Also, there was footage yesterday of an impromptu launch for the emerging Russian Space force - Russian tank crews who apparently decided to quit war and become cosmonauts.

A group of 3-4 armored vehicles was rocked when the tank in the middle became atomized in an explosion so massive that it also likely destroyed/damaged surrounding armored vehicles and it's a miracle that the Ukrainain drone wasn't also consumed by it.  Did the crew break the 200m world record?  Only the Kremlin knows.