Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

No backsies: Russia begs for exported weapons back

Russia has reportedly attempted to get back some of the weapons it has exported to countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Belarus and Brazil, in order to boost its arsenal for the ongoing war with Ukraine.

In this case, it's helicopter engines, which count as military hardware due to their obvious use in fixing up attack helicopters.  Egypt and Belarus complied, Pakistan says it wasn't asked, and Brazil refused to give them back.

[Hydra009]

No Russian reserves left

The Russian military has committed all available reserves to the frontlines in Ukraine, [according to] Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve Colonel and military expert Roman Svitan

This causes Russia several problems:

1) New hotspots (like say, south of a certain river) pose a problem because there are no reserves left to plug up the holes.

2) Redeploying troops necessitates a drop in combat strength in where they're redeploying from.  It's a zero-sum game.

3) Redeploying troops takes time, so it's actually temporarily a net negative.  This temporary drop in combat strength can be exploited.

[Hydra009]

Full Metal Jacket - Russian troops beat their commander to death in occupied Crimea

Minus one Colonel.  saves Ukraine the expense of sending a drone or missile after him.

And the soldier suspected of the murder reportedly changed into civilian clothes then somehow made his way back into Russia.  Security is evidently not very competent.

[Hydra009]

Anti-Putin Russian Volunteer Corps again raids Russia, kills Lt. Colonel

Both the Anti-Putin Volunteer Corps and Pro-Putin Russian telegram channels say that the Russian border guard vehicle came under fire and the FSB Lieutenant Colonel died on the scene.

[Hydra009]

As bad as things are on the frontlines, Russian classrooms are the true field of horrors

It's like Jesus Camp had a baby with a Stalin personality cult.

Once again, I can't help but notice that these people have an oddly familiar antipathy towards liberalism.  Reminds me a lot of a certain someone, who come to think of it, is quite fond of long and secretive talks with Putin.

Also, I feel like we should note that "only the force of arms will purify Ukrainians of anti-Russianism" is literally a call for genocide.  This stuff is everywhere in Russia and they aren't very secretive about it.  Anyone who thinks that you can hand Russia a chunk of Ukraine and peace will be restored is a gullible fool of the highest order.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

This might not seem like a big deal, since they're relatively small patrol boats.  But they allow for a relatively quick deployment of troops and equipment, so they're prime logistics targets.  Every little bit helps.

[Hydra009]

Lots of infantry losses and armored vehicles losses just broke 10k, which is quite the achievement.

[Cassia]

I don't understand these armored columns Russia deploys. About 8 vehicles in a line. I saw a video and it was brutal for them as one after another of the IFVs or tanks got blown up. Then the drivers panicked, backed up and ran over some soldiers and still got hit.

Comments on Twitter
-Sometimes you think you have seen those videos already until you realize, that they really do the same failed attack over and over again...
-Is it mandatory in russian military doctrine to squash at least two of the guys you just dropped off?
-Interesting concept of advancing over open terrain and minefields. What strikes me is that these attacks as a rule are single platoon or at best company level not any higher. Half a dozen vehicles riding into death again and again

[Hydra009]

Unfortunately, the situation is such that any advancement is detected quickly and artillery/drones pick off vehicles.  It happens to the Ukrainians too, though much less often.

Doctrine dictates an armored column for such assaults for various reasons, but Ukraine quickly found the hard way that such formations are easy targets and changed their doctine and continue to use a lot of unorthodox approaches.  Russian doctine is much less flexible and soldiers are often given specific instructions and have to follow it to the letter or risk getting shot.

[Unbeliever]

I read that there is a lot of drug use among the Russian military. Could that have anything to do with it?

[Hydra009]

No idea, but I wouldn't doubt it.  Alcoholism is of course a big thing.

But chances are good that the assaulting troops are stone cold sober before...you know, stone cold.

[Hydra009]

Russian state media publishes then retracts "goodwill gesture" to withdraw from south bank of Dniper river near Kherson

"There are a number of military operations (in the Kherson region) that we do not discuss, precisely so that the enemy has increased nervousness and moral disorder. This state of the enemy army satisfies us."

Ooh, they almost had me.  They're not particularly good at keeping secrets, either.  Troop locations gets leaked by partisans or disaffected Russians all the time.  Hell, sometimes they post them online and wait for the geolocation or just bring a traceable cellphone.

And no, they're obviously not happy with the situation.  A little over a year ago, they let Kherson slip through their fingers.  And ever since, they've dealt with pesky incursions across the river that they could never quite get rid of. 

Now, they've lost so many at this and other fronts (Adiviika in particular) that this seemingly easily-defensible territory is slipping from their grasp as well, and given the inherent difficult of a river crossing, that's quite a feat.  When the Ukrainians complete a bridge and start sending in heavy vehicles, they're pretty much donezo.  Especially because Kherson region wasn't fortified to the same extent as Zaporizhzhia.

[Hydra009]

The Russians are losing 14 vehicles for every one that the Ukrainians lose

In and around Avdiivka through Nov. 10, the same analysts have counted 16 Ukrainian vehicle losses versus 221 Russian losses.

The headline is somewhat misleading because the loss ratio varies a lot by location and date and obviously, some losses are much more painful than others (don't worry, I'll touch on that later), but overall, the Ukrainians are absolutely trashing Russian armor.

How Ukrainian forces held down their losses isn't hard to understand. Learning from the disastrous early assaults in June, commanders slowed the pace of their attacks—carefully preparing each battlefield with artillery and drones before flanking Russian positions.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has advanced just 10 miles or so along its main southern axes because Ukrainian forces have been cautious. The Russian countercounteroffensive around Avdiivka, by contrast, has been anything but cautious.

Ukrainian commanders clearly care whether their forces suffer losses in battle. Russian commanders clearly don't care.

Moscow is betting on ramming through on brute force alone and doesn't much concern itself with losses.  After all, Russian stockpiles are much, much larger and Western countries - while much more technologically advanced - have had difficulty meeting Ukrainian needs.

Despite this, the Ukrainians have inflicted punishing losses for every inch and it's starting to pay off as Russian stockpiles - while large - are not infinite and all aspects of the Russian war machine are strained to breaking point - high let's say "turnover" among Russian officers, severe logistics problems, a vanishing naval presence, poorly supplied and demoralized troops which can no longer reasonably expect either rotation out or reinforcements should things with the Ukrainians literally and figuratively go south.  As an example of this strain, a Russian regiment requested replacements for its destroyed T-72s and instead of receiving T-80s or T-90s, received an even older version of the T-72, lacking the upgraded engine and improved stabilization of the destroyed ones.  This seemingly reveals that the Kremlin has run out of anything better.

And when it comes to painful high-value losses, Russia is typically the one losing cherished equipment.  The Ukrainians managed to bag a rare Electronic Warfare system just a couple days ago and two other electronic warfare systems a couple days before that and they've steadily chipped through high-end Russian armor, artillery, air defense (s-300 and s-400), planes, helicopters, and last but not least, ships.  Though the Ukrainians have had losses as well - including some Bradleys and Leopards and 7 aircraft during 2023, the Russians have not and likely will not inflict equivalent losses on Ukraine.

Still, Ukraine needs continued strong support to keep it afloat or Russia will ultimately win, despite horrendous losses.

[Cassia]

Still, Ukraine needs continued strong support to keep it afloat or Russia will ultimately win, despite horrendous losses.

That is the Russian way, drown them in your own blood. By a 'win' are you thinking the entire country or the annexed regions?