Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Unbeliever]

I hope it doesn't turn out to be a clusterfuck...

[ferdmonger]

120 countries have banned the cluster bombs because they don't want to waste all that resources and manpower, and then look like complete idiots when they miss one and mother of a couple of toddlers die.

120 countries have banned the cluster bombs because they don't want to waste all that resources and manpower, and then look like complete idiots when they miss one and mother of a couple of toddlers die.

It's war and it's nasty... and Vlad needs to learn how to read a map. 

[ferdmonger]

"Russia... not Russia." comes to mind.

[Hydra009]

Russia propaganda shows are endlessly entertaining. It's like if Borat told people that Kazakhstan is the most advanced country on Earth and all other countries were backwaters.

My favorite one is the assertion (without evidence, of course) that Canadian police are obliged to provide anyone who asks with heroin and thus the whole society is strung out and that's why Canada is on unfriendly terms with Russia.  They even had the gall to attack my favorite filming location of British Columbia! 

If I were to approach 100 random people in St Petersburg and offer them the opportunity to permanently move to British Columbia or stay in St Petersburg, how many people do you think would take me up on it?  60?  70?  80?

Afterwards, they somehow managed to top that BS casserole with a real whopper - the US is afraid of Russia because only Russia can seriously threaten the US.

Wrong!  The answer is China.  In the 50s and 60s, the USSR was a threat, but those days - and the USSR - are long gone.  Russia is really only a threat to the eastern half of a country bordering NATO.

Let me put it this way, if US adversaries were Spider-Man villians, China would be Doc Ock, Iran would be Scorpion, and Russia would be The Vulture.  And not the cool one from the movies, but the lame one from the 60s comic books.  It could be worse.  North Korea is Stilt-Man.

[the_antithesis]

Which one is Paste Pot Pete?

[Hydra009]

Which one is Paste Pot Pete?

Cuba?  Idk.

[Hydra009]

Bayraktar factory under construction in Ukraine

When this was first proposed, Russian propagandists were very worried and made a lot of empty threats.  I anticipate them moving to the "it's no big deal" phase soon.  It's still a big deal to Russian conscripts, though.

[Hydra009]

I just saw a pretty funny video of a bunch of Russian soldiers filming themselves riding around in an armored vehicle with excitement and eagerness to fight.

Smashcut to them being captured.  LOL

[Cassia]

I just saw a pretty funny video of a bunch of Russian soldiers filming themselves riding around in an armored vehicle with excitement and eagerness to fight.

Smashcut to them being captured.  LOL

It's a surprisingly unprofessional military. A mix of mercenaries, draftees, and poor/ethnic volunteers who after a year still seem oblivious to their own peril.

[Hydra009]

Sweden is reportedly joining NATO now that Turkey is giving the go-ahead.

Turkey got some concessions out of it, as predicted from the start.  I'm not sure if this sets a good precedent, since the whole system is one of mutual aid and altruism and holding out for concessions seems like it runs counter to that (it's a bit me-focused, as opposed to us-focused) and encourages foot-dragging in the future.  But I guess that's how the sausage gets made and if that's what it takes, it's worth it imho.

[Hydra009]

On a positive note, the Baltic Sea will be Lake NATO!



Russia's strategic situation has deteriorated greatly.  NATO has greater capabilities (now able to construct pretty much anything with a few planks of wood and an allen wrench) and a long border with Russia.  It'll be an even longer border when Ukraine joins NATO.

Both the Baltic and Black Seas are more and more unwelcoming.  Russia can technically still use both, but both will have a considerable NATO presence, especially after Crimea is returned to Ukraine.

Russia's entire western half will be hemmed in by NATO, except for the Caucasus region.  Any further westward expansion is pretty much impossible, so Putin's mad dream of a Russkiy mir (Russian order) in eastern europe is completely dead.

[Hydra009]

When he says that a kadyrovite (pro-Putin Chechen) unit was attacked and he's unable to show the results, he ain't kidding.  That is some *rough* viewing.  Let's just say that they're no longer able to make Tik-Toks.

Also, hearing that Ukrainian grain ships may be protected by Turkish ships if the deal with Russia falls through is fantastic news.

[Hydra009]

A collaborator, a "governor" of Zaporizhzhia region showed off some very crudely-made grenades and said he'd throw one down the hall if the Ukrainians come to take his office.  I'm pretty sure a HIMARS strike wouldn't be dissuaded by a grenade...

These people really are clowns of the highest order.  This guy is like 5'5" and 300 pounds.  He looks like he gets out of breath walking to his office.  He's not doing anything.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine reportedly already using the cluster munitions supplied by the US.

Russian general killed by Storm Shadow strike on a hotel converted to barracks near Berdansk.

[Hydra009]

Take this with a grain of salt as it just appeared on my Telegram feed without a source

...but Erdogan denies that he violated any agreement by allowing the Azov commanders to leave Turkey and return to Ukraine.

According to him, the agreement to have them sit out the war in Turkey was purely between Ukraine and Russia and the government of Turkey didn't agree to anything.

If true, this is downright hilarious rules-lawyering.  Quite literally off on a technically!