Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Along the southern front, Russia lost 4 companies' worth of troops in one day

A Russian company is anywhere from 30-150 troops, so we're talking 120-600 troops, probably closer to the first number considering how most Russian units have been consistently understaffed throughout the war.  We'll have to wait for more details to find out exactly.

Either way, Ukraine has really been putting the hurt on Russian lines lately.

[Hydra009]

Apparently, that report about high Russian casualties along the southern front was no joke, because today's numbers are high!



High infantry and artillery losses.  And notably towards the south, where a counterattack would be most logical...

[Hydra009]

Biden apparently browses the same memes as me, because his response to Russia's claim that Ukraine getting F-16s represents a "colossal risk"

Biden:  "it is...FOR THEM"

(apologies for bad quality, but it's the only one I could find that was short and sweet)

[Hydra009]

Wagner appears to have mostly succeeded in capturing Bakhmut, depending on how you define success.  An argument could be made that they still haven't taken Bakhmut's western outskirts, but that's a pointless debate.

So congrats, after 9 long months, 20k+ KIA and 80k+ wounded, Wagner managed to take Ukraine's 56th largest city (iirc) which is of course evacuated and demolished.  King of a mountain of rubble and russian bodies.

The end result is not some glorious, decisive victory, but a bloody, costly victory which halted any further Russian advances and exhausted Wagner forces.

With a Ukrainian counterattack imminent, and Ukrainian forces poised to encircle Wagner forces, it's unlikely that Russia will be able to do much with its new gains.  And thanks to their efforts of leveling every building, there's nowhere left to hide.  I hope Prigozhin likes the area, because he's likely to be staying a long time.

[Hydra009]

Russia trying to create "elite" air assault unit

Why they didn't have one from the get-go is anyone's guess.  Putin has reportedly been deeply unsatisfied with his air force for some reason *smashcut to helicopters getting shot down by Ukrainians, air units bombing own troops, an airplane bombing Belogrod, an airplane crashing into Russian apartment buildings, air units exploding on the tarmac, and air units being shot down near Belogrod* but I don't think Putin understands that you can't just wave a magic wand and get a competent air force.  Besides, a lot of their best pilots are either kia or clearly want no part in the war.  Slim pickings.

[Hydra009]

I almost skipped posting this one because I thought it was a repeat.  But no, this is very much a "same stuff, different day" type of situation for Russia:



Almost identical numbers as yesterday, with one notable exception - the Ukrainians reportedly downed a Russian Su-35 bomber.

[Hydra009]

Also, something is happening in Beloorod region of temporary Russia or maybe it isn't.  Maybe little green men.  Maybe little blue-white men.  Who knows.

Whatever is happening (or not happening) it is a purely internal affair.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

[ferdmonger]

The days of special operation and three day takeover of Ukraine are long gone.

I've no doubt the Biden administration assisted in defeating Vlad's efforts. Well done.

[Hydra009]

The days of special operation and three day takeover of Ukraine are long gone.

I've no doubt the Biden administration assisted in defeating Vlad's efforts. Well done.

It's a team effort, but both international aid and Ukraine's ingenuity and bravery are key.

[Hydra009]

Seven Ukrainian soldiers capture 22 vatniks

It wasn't a fair fight.  One Ukrainian soldier is worth far more than three vatniks.

[Hydra009]

Less troop losses, but man oh man, 40 artillery!  Those guns are being silenced quick!  Russia definitely can't replenish those sorts of losses.

[Hydra009]

"Russia is facing an increasingly serious multi-domain security threat across its border regions" is a very fancy, very polite way of saying that Russia's borders are #$@*ed and its war efforts are being frustrated at every turn - from the frontline to the rail line to its military hardware within its own borders.

[Hydra009]

In yet another Belogorod incident, a Russian attack helicopter was downed