Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Winged JDAMs now in Ukrainian hands

Not knowing a JDAM from a HEAT round, I took the liberty of looking it up.  Basically, it's a little kit used to convert unguided "dumb" bombs into guided bombs.  A Ukrainian drone or aircraft fires one of these in the general direction of the enemy, and then it sails for the next 45 miles (72.4km) to the target and then BaBOOM!

Bottom line: expect previously untouched targets to suddenly burst into flame.

[Shiranu]

I really hoped I'd wake up today without witnessing a Nazi-esqe execution on social media, but here we are.  :/

Everyone participating in this war of aggression, from the head czar to the lowliest mobnik, bears moral responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine.  There should without a doubt be Nuremberg-style trials after this war is over.

If their goal was to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people, showing a video of a man dying both honorably and defiantly in the name of Ukraine probably wasn't the best move.

But from the Russian remarks I have seen translated - so take of that what you will - it seems like it was more just... they legitimately think this behavior is normal, "bad ass" machismo-ism.

I've now seen two Russians defend Russian corruption as a "strength" - it means the strongest man beats his way to the top, and thus the most qualified man for the job is there; and the guy will beat up all the people they don't like (gays, women, minorities) and get away with it, so that's a "plus" as well.

It's a strange cult.

[Hydra009]

Back up to 4 figures!  9 tanks isn't bad, either!

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians return 307 abducted children and 130 POWs

[Blackleaf]

I really hoped I'd wake up today without witnessing a Nazi-esqe execution on social media, but here we are.  :/

Everyone participating in this war of aggression, from the head czar to the lowliest mobnik, bears moral responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine.  There should without a doubt be Nuremberg-style trials after this war is over.

Sometimes people make me wish there was a Hell. Too many evil people spend their whole lives living in luxury, with little to no consequences. People like Putin should suffer.

[Hydra009]

I can kinda see why Putin thinks he's winning even as he's losing.  At the start of the war, Russia had a huge advantage on paper.  Attacking Ukraine from north, east, and south simultaneously.  Superior numbers.  Deep stockpiles.  Even the ability to influence governments from Washington to Berlin.  If all had gone according to plan...

But it didn't and much of Russia's power has proven to either be illusory or exaggerated.  And nearly every assumption - from being greeted as liberators to Private Conscriptovich personally destroying 1,991 HIMARS with his trusty AK to successfully using energy/famine to push other countries around to using turncloaks like Matt "preteen" Gaetz to stop US support dead in its tracks have all been shown to be faulty assumptions.

Putin is waay over his head and isn't thinking irrationally - he's like a gambler at Vegas and thinking if he keeps playing long enough, all his luck will change, even as he's losing his shirt.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian forces push invaders back somewhat near Bakhmut

Still a tense situation.

[Hydra009]

[PopeyesPappy]

Winged JDAMs now in Ukrainian hands

Not knowing a JDAM from a HEAT round, I took the liberty of looking it up.  Basically, it's a little kit used to convert unguided "dumb" bombs into guided bombs.  A Ukrainian drone or aircraft fires one of these in the general direction of the enemy, and then it sails for the next 45 miles (72.4km) to the target and then BaBOOM!

Bottom line: expect previously untouched targets to suddenly burst into flame.

Not trying to nit pick here, but do the Ukrainians have any drones capable of deploying JDAM's? As far as I know the only drone capable of deploying a JDAM is the MQ-9 Reaper. There was some talk a while back about maybe sending a few Reapers to Ukraine, but as far as I know that hasn't actually happened.

That being said the JDAM's will probably be deployed via conventional aircraft and not drones.

[Hydra009]

General Atomics offered to sell them two Reaper drones.  And the Ukrainians are working on their own drones, including some that are fairly beefy as far as drones go.  Since I couldn't rule it out, I tried to account for all possibilities, even though you're right that it'd likely be from aircraft.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Hmmm...well, this is a rather telling comparison.  Definitely gave the game away that this is more of a Putin-style jackboot legislation than legitimate reform.

Plus, the Maidan Revolution was largely positive in the long-term, and is credited with removing a lot of corruption in Ukraine.  As a result of this and several other things, Russia decided to invade.  To say that this war has been hard for Ukrainians is an understatement, but we can safely say that we know who causes them such hardship.  And while the war has devastated much of Ukraine, it will prove to be downright ruinous for Russia.  Ukraine will be rebuilt with help from its allies, Russia has no such assurances.  And Russia is currently in no position to threaten Georgia and might not be able to for quite a long time (especially if Georgians predict such a move and prepare, which could happen if they get tipped off somehow)

*edit - I suspected that this tweet was fake because it seemingly was too brazen and arrogant to be true.  It's real.  :/  A lot of the replies are quite witty comebacks highlighting Russian casualties, plus it's a goldmine of anti-Putin memes.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Japan considers sending weapons to Ukraine

Jeez, if it already wasn't enough of a zoo over there.  They'll have Gundams before this is all over.

But seriously, Japan's not normally very aggressive on the world stage anymore, so this is a huge departure compared to how Japan normally does things.  The reasoning for this change is interesting: 

there is an opinion among Japanese politicians that the diplomatic authority of the country may suffer due to such a pacifist position. Japan is closely monitoring the situation in Taiwan, there are increasingly calls to support Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia.

Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on lawmakers to change arms export rules. Expanded military exports "will become a key political tool to help countries that have been aggressed against international law," Kishida said.

"In case of unforeseen situations, we will have to ask other countries for weapons and ammunition, otherwise we will face their shortage. Do you think we can ask for [weapons] when we are in crisis if we don't give to other countries during their own crises?" Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Masahisa Sato said on Monday.

Faced with reckless foreign aggression, a pacifist position no longer makes moral or practical sense.  Further, Japan itself could one day be such a target and rely on foreign aid so it is necessary to take a strong stand now to ensure that its allies return the favor in the future.

[Hydra009]

ISW: Wagner forces near Bakhmut appear to be "on pause"

Wagner forces have taken a tremendous amount of attrition and are likely in poor shape and likely unable to perform the river crossing that would take them into the heart of Bakhmut.  However, Russian reinforcements have been streaming in, including what's left of their airborne, which could take the initiative and begin fresh advances.