Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

The Russians are probably going to throw everything they have at Western tanks, hoping to overwhelm them.  And since Western tanks will not be operating with nearly as much support as they normally would, the Russians may succeed in destroying some, albeit at enormous cost.  Ukraine will probably have to use Western tanks very cautiously at the beginning.

Though they can outrange Russian tanks, so depending on Russian morale, they might be able to inflict devastating first strikes, potentially causing nearby Russian tanks to flee.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine continues to hold onto Bakhmut

They've reportedly held their ground on both north and south positions.

[Hydra009]

Strat: assault with shovel.  It's not very effective...

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Mobiks from Irkutsk describe being woefully unprepared, appeal to Putin for help, ignored and then thrown into an even more dangerous assault

Update: they're almost all dead . Apparently, their fears were well-founded.

[Dreamer]

War sucks.

Putin doesn't see his soldiers as people, just pawns. He's so lost-he hasn't figured out that we're all a moment away from death, and you don't get to take this shit with you.

I vacillate between praying that he makes a miraculous change and ends the war, stops various humanitarian crimes, etc.... And also between his hastened death, though I would be concerned about what would happen then with the likely power vacuums..

[Shiranu]

Putin doesn't see his soldiers as people, just pawns. He's so lost-he hasn't figured out that we're all a moment away from death, and you don't get to take this shit with you.

Even if you can, what brainwashed fools think that genocide and greed will get them into any heaven?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - when Russia calls Moskva, "The Third Rome", we should listen - but people aren't ready to think about the implications that has for our own Roman-idolizing Western society.

Russia is the natural state of any people who idolize Roman ideology; we just took the slower country road and them the express highway.

Until the world is purged of these barbarian ideas, Western Romans and the Russian Cesars will never cease to oppress humanity.

[Hydra009]

I mean, it's possible to like some things about past cultures while disliking other things.  I think most people would intuitively guess that Rome didn't get that wealthy through trade alone...

There are lessons to be learned from history and I think that a lot of people understand those lessons.  Sadly, some people are further behind than others and those people are distressingly often in power. 

Also, sometimes when countries go through crisis - they look back at the "glory days" and try to do it over again.  It doesn't work that way and has never worked that way, so their efforts never yield the results they expect.

[Shiranu]

I think most people would intuitively guess that Rome didn't get that wealthy through trade alone...

You give most people far too much historical knowledge credit.

We live in a country where 30% don't know when the Holocaust happened; not even the war's name.
We live in a country where 55% don't know the casualties or that Hitler was democratically elected.

If we cant even teach World War II, an event with a small handful of people who lived through it still live in this country to this day... how can we expect anything further back to be accurately taught?

How many Americans do you think can tell you what even an "Anglo-Saxon" or a Norman is, or anything other than, "OH! 1066! Hastings!" despite being taught in school that these are two most important white groups to have ever existed (outside of Americans, of course)?

At least in America, people have the historical knowledge of a dried chewing gum wad - add ontop of that a society that worships the Romans as peak-civilization, who see Roman monuments any time they go into city or turn on their T.V. ...

No, the radicals I've seen have convinced me there are far too many cosplay-Romans who want to make it more than just a A S T H E T I C ... and we serfs don't have the luxury of assuming they are just cos-playing anymore.

Also, sometimes when countries go through crisis - they look back at the "glory days" and try to do it over again.  It doesn't work that way and has never worked that way, so their efforts never yield the results they expect.

Yep; those who refuse to learn history are doomed to repeat it.

[Hydra009]

Two invader bases in Melitopol struck

Possibly high deathtoll, though nothing is confirmed at this time.

[Hydra009]

Russian kludge: mounting a naval cannon on an armored transport



As the article correctly points out, the range is horrible against land targets, so it'd have to get nice and close (doubtful) and survive the engagement with its fairly weak armor (extremely doubtful).  Suffice it to say that there are lots of reasons why naval guns are mounted on naval vessels and not other vehicles.

Do the Ukrainians have similar kludges?  Yes.  But theirs are a lot more sensible, combining that same armored transport with an anti-tank gun to produce crude tank destroyers.

Bear in mind that they're the defenders and when your back is up against the wall, it makes sense to come up with some weird ad hoc stuff.  But the Russians are the aggressors, so sporting the occasional bolt-action rifle from WWI, tanks from the 1960s, kludged air defense launchers modified to work as crude artillery, kludged naval turrets on armored transports, etc - all that speaks to an enormous lack of proper equipment, and that's on side that wanted war and was presumably prepared for it!

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Russian brigade refuses to fight

155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet stationed near Vulhedar.  They were once the workhorse of the initial invasion, but have suffered tremendous losses to the point of almost being wiped out.  They have been reconstituted with mobiks.

the 155th Brigade has been reconstituted as much as seven times since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. A once elite unit is now made up almost entirely of poorly equipped conscripts. The ISW adds: "The combat effectiveness of this committed formation is likely negligible."

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has instructed his commanders to take Vuhledar at any cost which, for the 155th Brigade, would likely mean yet another incredibly costly offensive, with huge loss if life for little consequence.

The end result is an apparent mutiny in the works. A statement from a Ukrainian military spokesman said: "The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders - to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation".

Military analyst Oleg Zhdanov has reported that two "Cossack" Russian units, known as "Steppe and Tiger", had also refused to participate on the new offensive on the hilltop town.

[Hydra009]

Do ya feel lucky, punk?:  Russia hesitates on Iran ballistic missile purchase, fearing consequences

Among those potential consequences is the US providing long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Israel has also expressed its disapproval of involvement with Iran.  And certainly, Russia's attempts to recruit Palestinians for its war of aggression in Ukraine does not endear it to Israel.

At the same time, officials admit that Moscow may change its position on Iranian ballistic missiles. This is due to a shortage of its own ammunition and a drop in domestic production.

According to the estimates of the sources of the publication, the stocks of guided missiles and artillery have halved.

"Russians are in a terrible situation. They need missiles," said one European official.

Ultimately, Russia may purchase Iranian missiles out of desperation.  But then it'll have to contend with the consequences, and certainly the complete destruction of the Kerch bridge, among other things, will be devastating for Russia's already strained logistics and make holding onto the southern parts of Ukraine very, very difficult.

[Hydra009]

I really hoped I'd wake up today without witnessing a Nazi-esqe execution on social media, but here we are.  :/

Everyone participating in this war of aggression, from the head czar to the lowliest mobnik, bears moral responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine.  There should without a doubt be Nuremberg-style trials after this war is over.