Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Bread and circuses.

It's smart of Russia to finally take its morale problem seriously, but it's beyond stupid that they apparently think that opera singers are going to make up for high casualties, poor leadership, bad equipment, expired rations, drinking out of puddles, frostbite, alcoholism, etc.

[Hydra009]

Wagner pushed back three blocks on the eastern suburbs of Bakhmut

Progress is being made, but they're still dangerously close and the situation is very tense.  Ukraine is still very much in need of heavy equipment like tanks and aircraft, as well as much longer-ranged missiles to threaten Russian logistics.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians getting into the holiday spirit.  They're even celebrating with some sort of elf.

*bites into a blue-yellow cookie wafer*
Oh yeah, that's the stuff.

[Hydra009]

Not so friendly fire - Russian tank deliberately blew up Russian checkpoint back in the summer

Factional feuds are emerging, with Russians split between the regular armed forces, Rosgvardia, Wagner, and Kadyrovites.  Limited coordination between them and no real unified command (they're off doing their own things and reporting through their own chain of command)

Yet another vulnerability.  Deliberately stoked tensions or miscommunication could lead to an unfortunate incident, and that would be very helpful for the Ukrainians...

[Hydra009]

Please take this with a grain of salt and await official confirmation before busting out the bubbly, but it appears that a Ukrainian counterattack has pushed the Russian invaders out of Bakhmut.  Still a tense situation though, but definitely welcome news.

[Hydra009]

Russia preping for a repeat of Kherson retreat at Melitopol

"Everything is going according to the very same scenario they followed on the right bank [of the Dnipro river – ed.]. Seems like they really liked it [the scenario – ed.].

At first they were accumulating troops around Kherson, building fortifications, then they reported that they were going to retreat from some settlements, then were preparing for street fights, then were saying that there is still hope for them, then stole what they considered valuable from banks and other institutions.

Basically, they are repeating themselves, they love stepping on the same rake. We will let them follow the same scenario as we already know how it all will end."

I love the Ukrainian sense of humor.  Very dry and sardonic.

And we do indeed know how it will end.  Ukraine will be liberated.

[Hydra009]

Rouble takes a dive, mostly over fears of oil restrictions

Something to bear in mind the next time Russia threatens to cut off Europe: there are consequences for Russia as well, and much more severe ones for a pariah state with an already shaky economy.

[Hydra009]

Russian losses to date:



Materiel losses have somewhat slowed as they have largely been depleted, with the remainder focused more on self-preservation than aggression.  Manpower losses continue to spike until those too are depleted.

And yes, they're very nearly at 100k KIA.  At the current rate, it shouldn't take more than a couple of days.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Entire Russian battalion refuses to fight

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Zelenskyy was at Bakhmut recently (his security detail must be top notch!) and now he's in the US to lobby for more aid.

[Hydra009]

Red-on-red: Russia shoots down its own attack helicopter...again

[Hydra009]

Russia now at 99740 KIA (increased by 510 since yesterday)

They're definitely going to hit 100k tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Russia has officially lost over 3000 tanks in less than a year of fighting.

[Hydra009]

Mysterious fire engulfs Russian base in Mariupol

[Hydra009]

Latest round of US aid for Ukraine:



One patriot battery is sort of a misnomer; that's for the whole system/network - multiple radar and launchers.

Additional ammo is also vital.  And the JDAMs kits and night vision is extremely useful and will help save a lot of Ukrainian lives.

The satellite money would act as a hedge against the possibility that Musk again threatens to stop funding them. Musk shipped the first Starlink terminals to Ukraine just days after Russia invaded in February, and as of October there were more than 2,200 of the low-orbiting satellites providing broadband internet to Ukraine.

Muskov can't afford the alleged $20 million/year for Ukraine but he can afford $44 billion for some dumb website (enough to pay for Starlink in Ukraine for 183 years) and otherwise spends money with abandon.  What a faker.