Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russia has declared it's now a "Holy War", LOL.

Yeah, it's pretty disgusting.  Even moreso considering the Russian Orthodox Church got its start with the Kievan Rus and its first church was built in none other than Kyiv.  Russia has so far bombed over 100 church sites in Ukraine, including the Seke of All Saints which burned down as a result of Russian shelling.  What they are doing right now is sacrilege.

Of course, Patriarch Krill knows a lot about sacrilege, considering that this Putin sycophant has become a billionaire under his ultimate master, owning all sorts of gaudy and excessive signifiers of wealth - mansions, yacht, even a $30,000 watch that he was photographed wearing and poorly airbrushed out.  So Christ-like.

[Hydra009]

Russian HQ in Melitopol explodes

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The Russian flag is gone from the Kherson regional state administration and several checkpoints in that area have been abandoned.

[Hydra009]

ISW assessment November 2nd

Sanctions and war and mobilization have hit the Russian economy hard, coffers are draining, Russia is still having problems paying its soldiers, causing tensions (part of the reason why pillaging is such a high priority and why fistfights among Russian soldiers are somewhat common).  Russia continues to offer cash incentives to its soldiers, rely heavily on mercenaries like Wagner, and pay Iran and North Korea for much-needed munitions and/or drones - and all of that costs money.  Lots of money.

You can't make less money and pay more money for long.  Sooner or later, something is going to give.

[Cassia]

ISW assessment November 2nd

Sanctions and war and mobilization have hit the Russian economy hard, coffers are draining, Russia is still having problems paying its soldiers, causing tensions (part of the reason why pillaging is such a high priority and why fistfights among Russian soldiers are somewhat common).  Russia continues to offer cash incentives to its soldiers, rely heavily on mercenaries like Wagner, and pay Iran and North Korea for much-needed munitions and/or drones - and all of that costs money.  Lots of money.

You can't make less money and pay more money for long.  Sooner or later, something is going to give.

[Hydra009]

Russia loses 840 troops in past 24 hours

Ukraine's normal tactics of severe attrition followed by rapid advances seems to be working yet again, as Russia is in the final stages of abandoning the Kherson region.

[Hydra009]

Unfortunately, it appears that the Russians are not abandoning Kherson and the removal of the flag is a deliberate attempt to draw in Ukrainian forces into a trap

Russians have dug in and tried to disguise themselves as civilians to attempt to ambush Ukrainian forces.

So the smart move for the Ukrainians is to wait, keep damaging logistics, and pick off remaining Russians instead of just rushing in.  That means a considerable delay in its liberation, but it unfortunately can't be helped.

But if the opportunity presents itself, they could encircle the city, and that would speed things up considerably.  Russia's best (well...remaining best) would be cut off from supplies and reinforcements and would inevitably degrade until death or capture.  Such a move would rob Russia of both prized territory and skilled troops, and would be devastating for morale...

[Hydra009]

Can't argue with that logic.

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This infographic is shocking but can't possibly be right.  There's no way that roughly a third of Russian troops have been killed, wounded, or taken prisoner at some point.

Russian active duty personnel: 900k.  Okay, well I guess that's plausible.

September and October have been especially bloody months for the Russians, much higher body count than the lull during the summer.  So that percentage could definitely change.

[Hydra009]

In a month, about 25% of conscripts Wagner recruited from prisons have died

At least 500 kia out of around 2000 known to be at the frontlines

[the_antithesis]

Can't argue with that logic.

Jesus Christ. Ukraine is being invaded by a third world country.

[Hydra009]

Putin made the galaxy brain decision to send instructors to war and now Russia is having a hard time training its conscripts, opting mostly to skip training altogether and forming whole battalions of FNGs with pitiful results.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are going to the UK or other countries for a couple months and coming back with PhDs in blowing up conscripts.

If only they had the planes and tanks that they need, this war would be over quickly and a lot of lives would be saved.

[Hydra009]

Speak of the devil... Battalion of conscripts wiped out along eastern front

"We were dumped into the forest and ordered to entrench; we had only three shovels for the battalion, and there was no support at all. We entrenched as best we could, and in the morning the [Ukrainian] attack started. [Ukrainian forces used] artillery, Grad MLRS, mortars and copters; we were just shot.

When it all started, the officers immediately ran away. In between the attacks, we tried to entrench, but the copters immediately spotted us and just shot us. Out of 570 people, 29 managed to survive, 12 more were wounded, and the rest are all dead".

Jeez, 3 shovels among 570 people??!  You might as well use your hands at that point!

And it seems suspiciously like they were purposefully set up to fail, but why?  What does Putin gain?  I guess maybe to test the strength of Ukranian forces or serve as a distraction?  Or maybe dictators just make mistakes, especially cheapskate dictators to whom human life is worth nothing.

Apparently, even though the conscripts are of dubious quality, Russia has been able to put increased pressure on some frontlines and even though Ukrainian forces chew through the conscrips, they do take increased casualties.  Putin would sacrifice hundreds of Russians to kill dozens of Ukrainians.  What a disgusting, Hitleresque dictator.

[Hydra009]

War on a shoestring budget: Ukraine shows drone dropping 40mm grenades on tanks (no gore)

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https://i.imgur.com/6cGAt5e.mp4



Definitely the perfect thing to use on a country famous for its MANPADS.