Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Oct 21st ISW assessment

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack.

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that duty.

Everyone like that already died early in the war.

The deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, assessed on October 20 that Russian military leadership may withdraw "the most combat-capable units" from the west bank part of the region to the east bank of the Dnipro river and leave mobilized soldiers in contact to cover the withdrawal.

...

If Hromov's assessment is correct, then Russian forces would be setting conditions for a Russian withdrawal to become a rout. Russia's poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces chose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces. The collapse of a mobilized reservist detachment left in contact would likely lead to a Ukrainian rout of Russian forces on the same scale as Ukraine's rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv.

[Shiranu]

If they surrender, doesn't that just give Putin more of a reason to blow up the dam and flood the area?

"Oh no, the ethnic minorities I forced to go sacrifice themselves in a meat grinder (lol, didn't even train them or give them gear either, I'm so naughty) have turned to the enemy  - and I have a massive tool at my disposal to destroy not just them but a large chunk of Ukrainians at the same time. We can get water to Crimea later, this will just make the local people even easier to kill off and replace. And if the nuclear plant cant get the water it needs to cool itself... oh well, we already shell that same facility anyways."

[Hydra009]

Putin flooding the region is always a risk but it's pointless to worry about what Putin may or may not do, much less let it influence operations. 

Ukraine must liberate itself and the only way to do that is to advance and push the invaders out.

[Shiranu]

Putin flooding the region is always a risk but it's pointless to worry about what Putin may or may not do, much less let it influence operations. 

Ukraine must liberate itself and the only way to do that is to advance and push the invaders out.

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."  - Sun Tzu

It seems more and more that the intelligence community thinks this is a serious threat, so to send troops in there for a political victory at the expense of a particularly brutal military and moral defeat seems like a massive, unnecessary risk - the type Putin would make, not the West. To not worry about what he would do is both strategically unsound and, given his failures, a real missed opportunity to learn from his mistakes.

Let them starve over winter, maintain enough troops to lay siege to the city until the last troop flees and move the focus eastward; they are already in the process of evacuation, give them a "good-will" gesture in return and let them do so in peace - don't turn a Ukrainian victory into a crushing defeat.

[Hydra009]

There's an ever so slight difference between being totally ignorant about the enemy and becoming so engrossed in their potential behavior that you're vulnerable to coercion or decision paralysis.

And I very much doubt Sun Tzu would say to not press one's advantage in warfare, especially when a vulnerability can be exploited.  Elon Musk might say that, though.

As much as it'd love to believe that Russian forces are so poorly supplied that they'll literally starve if left alone and leave their torture rooms in peace, I very much doubt this rosy conclusion stems from an intelligence assessment or any combination thereof. 

Nor does it seem likely that Zelensky, formulating these counteroffensives with the input of the Ukrainian brass as well as expert Allied advisors, intends to send troops into Kherson for a "political victory at the expense of a particularly brutal military and moral defeat" (lol wat)

Such a scenario might have happened months ago as Zelensky was first announcing his intent to counterattack, though obviously, he did not push hard against the rapidly reinforcing Russian units along Kherson front, but instead focused on destroying logistics there to weaken it over time, while pressing his advantage and exploiting vulnerabilities in the Kharkiv region, a strategy that seems to work pretty well.

[Cassia]

The ultimate path out of this is very unclear. A complete military defeat of Russia would ruin Putin, so he cannot let that happen at almost any cost. Tactical nukes are gonna look really attractive to him if the mobilization (and drone attacks) fail to get results.

Russians seem way too brain washed and apathetic to toss Putin out. They would need the military to help. If Ukraine starts pushing Russian troops back in several regions, does anyone see Putin coming in to talk peace as a defeated dictator? Or is it more likely he will resort to tactical nukes and chemical warfare?

The other possibility occurs if Ukraine's offensive push is stopped and that would be a prolonged stalemate with both sides digging in deep.

[Hydra009]

Yeah, things could get dicey.  Lots of things could go bad.  Lots of things could always go bad at any time.  But Russian lines have been pushed back and again and again, and Russia makes threats again and again and has brutalized civilians again and again.  That's all we know for a fact.  That and liberated areas suffer much less from Russian aggression.

[the_antithesis]

And I very much doubt Sun Tzu would say to not press one's advantage in warfare, especially when a vulnerability can be exploited.  Elon Musk might say that, though.

Especially if he was on the other side of that advantage.

[Hydra009]

After a bit of a lull, back up to 400+ kia/day, and pretty standard vehicle/drone/helicopter destruction

[Hydra009]

Russia obstructs Ukrainian grain deliveries to impoverished countries

[Hydra009]

Russia builds "Seigfried line" in Luhansk border and curiously, along Russian border

I see they're taking notes from the finest tacticians in the world...during WWII...and fighting for the Axis.  Don't spoil the ending for them, I want it to be a surprise.

[Hydra009]

Israel launched airstrike on Iranian drone factory in Syria

I don't know if they're motivated by helping Ukraine or punishing Iran/Hezbollah, but I'll take it.

[Hydra009]

Russian fighter jet crashes into a house in Siberia

Both pilots may have been dead before impact, possibly from hypoxia.

[SoldierofFortune]

I LMAO at people who try reading what's in Putin's mind.

[Hydra009]

Russia's bringing more of its D-1 howitzers to the frontlines: