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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Germany and the Netherlands to send 80 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine by June 1st

Ukrainian forces are already training, so they'll both be ready at about the same time.

Hydra009

Ukraine shoots down "uninterceptable" Russian hypersonic missile

Not only that, but the Ukrainians managed to destroy the warhead while leaving the rest of the missile largely intact.

My brother told me that US military intelligence is going to have a field day with that thing, figuring out all sorts of information about it in order to more successfully counter it in the future.

Unbeliever

And make our own... 🤔
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

#2478
Tbh, I doubt the need for it.  We typically don't go up against peer adversaries, though that might change in the distant future.

Hydra009


Unbeliever

That's a lotta spicy meatballs! 😱
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009


Hydra009

Ukrainian forces destroy Wagner ammo storage points near Bakhmut

Not sure if this was before or after the Wagner head's latest video bitterly complaining about lack of ammunition.  Either way, it really puts Wagner in a bind - forced to advance without proper supplies and therefore either has to either absorb enormous casualties that it can't replace or retreat and suffer a huge reputation loss.

My brother bet me that Wagner will effectively cease all operations in Ukraine within a month, either dying or returning to Russia.  I bet that they will continue to fight.  We'll see.

Hydra009

#2483
According to Ukranian intelligence, Russian warships are being evacuated from their beleaguered harbor in Crimea and moved to the eastern shore on the Black Sea at the Russian port of Novorossisk

This undoubtedly ends any lingering offensive operations and puts them squarely in the flight part of fight-or-flight, an odd strategy for an aggressor country, highlighting Russia's changing fortunes in war.

In the purely hypothetical case that Ukraine may attempt to liberate Crimea, the absence of the Russian Black Fleet Remnants would certainly simplify operations...

Cassia

Incredible bravery and sacrifice.

Hydra009

#2485
45 defenders of Mariupol returned to Ukraine from invader captivity

QuoteThe released include 42 men and three women who defended Azovstal. That is 35 private soldiers and sergeants, as well as 10 officers.
They were exchanged for three Russian pilots.  Not a bad deal!

Hydra009



Source

ERA on top of the tank + cope cage on top of the tank + ERA on top of the cope cage

Man, they are starting to get super superstitious with this ERA stuff.  Apparently, the logic is that more ERA = more protected, like it's a video game powerup or something LOL.  Even I know it doesn't work that way.  I can't imagine how a combat vet or someone with a passing familiarity with tank design would feel about building a pagoda on top of a tank and then slapping ERA on it like there's a fire sale in Belogorod or something.

Even a civvie like me knows that this stuff has some serious downsides.  For starters, it makes the tank super easy to spot, which is generally the first step to getting killed.  So, definitely not doing crew survivability any favors right there.  Additionally, the added weight probably slightly slows down the tank, hurts visibility (something already not great in Russian tanks), and from stuff I've read about cope cages, they can also interfere with comms.  And it's probably not super pleasant to have any of this stuff go off while poking one's head out of the turret or ferrying any troops on top or anywhere near the tank.

Basically, this stuff is like charging into a gunfight with a manhole cover as a shield and a motorcycle helmet to protect one's head.  Does it work?  Maybe in very, very, very specific circumstances against very specific sorts of attacks.  But in general circumstances, is this a good idea?  Nyet.


Hydra009

#2488
UK intelligence says Russia is experiencing its largest labor shortage in decades

QuoteRussia's population has reportedly decreased by two million more than expected over the past three years due to the impact of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine.
Out of those two million workers gone, Russia lost 100k IT workers - about 10% of the industry.  No wonder Russia is reluctant to do a full mobilization, that would likely tank an already crippled economy.

Additionally, Russia is going green in an unusual way - simply reducing its industrial activity.  A 6% reduction in pollutants emitted across the board. 

Tellingly, St Petersburg and Moscow have increased their emissions, while its more rural areas have reduced them significantly.  Those rural areas are where the bulk of the partially-mobilized soldiers come from.  I think we can safely rule out some new technology to explain this discrepancy.

Hydra009

New milestone: 3000 invader artillery destroyed!