Split decision on marriage equality?

[Brian37]

Some pundits even on the left are speculating that the decisions on Prop 8 and DOMA could be split. What the fuck? I expect this crap from Fucked News, but I have to wonder what year it is when even the left is saying this?

If this court does the right thing it should be a 9 to nothing vote striking down ALL institutionalized homophobia allowing ALL states to legalize same sex marriage.

[moog]

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If this court does the right thing...

What do you think the chances are of this?

[mnmelt]

It's such a clear and VERY SIMPLE civil rights issue.. What are the oppositions take??.. based on religion??.. Can't make laws with respect to religion.. How much more fucking simple does it get??

[Brian37]

It's such a clear and VERY SIMPLE civil rights issue.. What are the oppositions take??.. based on religion??.. Can't make laws with respect to religion.. How much more fucking simple does it get??

Thank you. They need to legalize same sex marriage or get the fuck out of the institution all together. But what government cannot do is say "Some are more equal than others".

Same fucking crap was argued over inter racial marriage. If this court has any fucking balls at all, the right thing will be 9 to nothing and the bigots will lose.

[Brian37]

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If this court does the right thing...

What do you think the chances are of this?

I think it will be a split decision unfortunately. The best case will be both will be ruled unconstitutional with a 5-4 or 6-3 decision. I could see that happening. But even with all the fancy legal ease they will use, if it is more split supporting states rights then what it ultimately would amount to is a Court afraid of starting a civil war.

It should be unanimous though. How many minorities in our country's history have to go through this before we understand the Constitution?

[SGOS]

It's such a clear and VERY SIMPLE civil rights issue.. What are the oppositions take??.. based on religion??.. Can't make laws with respect to religion.. How much more fucking simple does it get??

I remember a few years ago when the right wing was continually bashing the Supreme Court for "making law" rather than upholding it.  Don't hear that so much anymore since so many of the Supreme Court decisions have gone their way.

[Wheatthins]

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If this court does the right thing...

What do you think the chances are of this?

Very good actually.  EVEN if everyone in the papers and news think there's only going to be some half ass solution, consider just the fact that the court even took up this case in the first place.  They very easily could have pussied out and just deferd the whole case to the 9th's decision that would have only applied to California, letting the rest of the country slowly legalize marriage state by state.  The fact they took the case up more than likely means enough of the justices want to settle the issue once and for all.

[BarkAtTheMoon]

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If this court does the right thing...

What do you think the chances are of this?

Very good actually.  EVEN if everyone in the papers and news think there's only going to be some half ass solution, consider just the fact that the court even took up this case in the first place.  They very easily could have pussied out and just deferd the whole case to the 9th's decision that would have only applied to California, letting the rest of the country slowly legalize marriage state by state.  The fact they took the case up more than likely means enough of the justices want to settle the issue once and for all.

That's basically what I wrote in the thread in politics. Taking both cases at the same time, then copping out would kill the current court's credibility. I think the justices know it's time to make a real decision. I'm sure they're aware that with a definitive decision this will be the biggest landmark case since the 60's, one that will be studied in history classes. Hopefully, they aren't stupid enough to end up on the wrong side of history. Win or lose, there's no putting the genie back in the bottle at this point. Public opinion has swayed faster in the past 5-10 years on this issue than any issue I've ever seen. A dozen states are expected to pass same sex marriage laws in the next year or so.

[SGOS]

Public opinion has swayed faster in the past 5-10 years on this issue than any issue I've ever seen. A dozen states are expected to pass same sex marriage laws in the next year or so.

I agree.  I think it's unusual to see public opinion change so much.  So much of the time, public opinion just reflects a ideological even split between Republicans and Democrats.  When public opinion changes so fast, I tend to see the issue as uniquely transcending political ideology.  Why is it that this happens with the gay issue?  Is it that DOMA and Prop 8 are so blatantly discriminatory that people who might be only half awake actually notice the unfairness?  Or is there some other dynamic at play?

[Wheatthins]

That's basically what I wrote in the thread in politics. Taking both cases at the same time, then copping out would kill the current court's credibility. I think the justices know it's time to make a real decision. I'm sure they're aware that with a definitive decision this will be the biggest landmark case since the 60's, one that will be studied in history classes. Hopefully, they aren't stupid enough to end up on the wrong side of history. Win or lose, there's no putting the genie back in the bottle at this point. Public opinion has swayed faster in the past 5-10 years on this issue than any issue I've ever seen. A dozen states are expected to pass same sex marriage laws in the next year or so.

I was talking more about the prop 8 case than the DOMA one, but I would have to agree with that as well.  Plus this whole nonsense trying to compare the prop 8 case to Roe vs Wade is complete hogwash.  Ginsburgh and the rest of the justices(hopefully at least) realize the prop 8 case is completely different not only in substance, but that the debate and tone that goes with it as well.  I just can't see people going on bloody rampages and bombing places over gay people getting married.  There is no chance in hell anymore of there being a federal constitutional amendment over gay marriage either.  The most likely thing you might see is a few individual states try getting rid of marriage altogether,  and that is just laughable as well.  The chaos from that alone would be be more than enough to dissuade all but the most hardcore nutjobs.  And even if that somehow happened, the political backlash and anger that would follow would quickly put a stop to that.

[Minimalist]

If this court does the right thing it should be a 9 to nothing vote

You do know that Clarence Thomas, Antonin Scalia, Samuel Alito and John Roberts are still on the court, right?

[Wheatthins]

If this court does the right thing it should be a 9 to nothing vote

You do know that Clarence Thomas, Antonin Scalia, Samuel Alito and John Roberts are still on the court, right?

Don't count out Thomas on this one just yet.  I have a sneaking suspicion that his vote might surprise a few people.

[SGOS]

Even if gays win these cases, I will still be appalled if it isn't a unanimous decision.

[BarkAtTheMoon]

Even if gays win these cases, I will still be appalled if it isn't a unanimous decision.

I would be absolutely stunned if it is a unanimous decision or even a significant majority, though I agree that it should. An awful lot of newsworthy decisiosn in recent years have been 5-4 along "party" lines.

[Wheatthins]

//https://soundcloud.com/brianries/scotus-audio-hollingsworth-v
//http://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/12-144a.pdf
Links to audio and pdf of the court  transcript if anyone is interested