What are the odds of a Venezuelan civil war?

Started by GrinningYMIR, December 16, 2015, 02:38:35 PM

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GrinningYMIR

For those of you who don't know Venezuela is a nation in the southern Americas that tries after a pure socialist ideal (so it says) based on the ideas of its former leader Hugo Chavez. His death led to his successor Nicolas Maduro taking power and leading through the current petroleum glut. This is a country that suffers a severe case of Dutch disease, also known as overrelyiance on one product for its economy. It has the largest oil reserves in the world, even of Saudi Arabia

Now, with the recent drop in oil prices, from 150 dollars a barrel to the most recent 34,50 a barre, and maybe as bad as 20 a barrel next year, the economy has tanked. Shortages on everything from diapers to medicine to food.

Naturally Maduro has played the card Chavez always played, blame the US. Saying the United States is running an economic war against the country. This isn't working how it has in the last however as a major opposition has one the most seats in their democratic assembly. Weakening the socialist party significantly

Now, here's the thing. Maduro won't lose power willingly and it seems like he's eating ready to declare himself dictator, he's mobilized the army and such. My question is do you think the opposition will win and he'll bow down, will the socialist policies work again without OPEC money to keep them running or will a civil war break out in the country?

Say whatever you want, this is an open topic for debate
"Human history is a litany of blood shed over differing ideals of rulership and afterlife"<br /><br />Governor of the 32nd Province of the New Lunar Republic. Luna Nobis Custodit

stromboli

I don't see an upside to violent actions from any viewpoint, but I'm not living there. They have a 91% literacy rate, so involvement in politics by the populace should be fairly high and hopefully well informed. My hope would be some resolution that involves other economic initiatives.

But their economy is frankly shit, and shortages are huge, so anything is possible.

Baruch

Civil war happens when regionalism aligns with unforgiving politics.  This is the barrios against everyone else.  In Latin America, this is usually achieved by a coup, using officers from the School of the Americas ... in the US.  Bolivia and Ecuador are also at risk.  Colombia is going where the US wants it to go, post FARC.  Brazil is in crisis, and the Argentine Black Spider has been voted out of office, for not giving the whole country of Argentina over to blood suckers in NYC.  But nobody's hands are clean.  These folks, the locals vs other locals vs outside capitalist forces ... play for keeps.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

GrinningYMIR

Anti western rhetoric aside, I'm genuinely curious about the whole situation. Given that look prices are going to dip further before hey get better, witch the addition of Iranian and US crude exports, I'm wondering what will happen down there.

A lot of anger to be unleashed, but South America isn't as violence stricken as say Africa or Asia, of the Middle East. So I'm wondering if violence will occur
"Human history is a litany of blood shed over differing ideals of rulership and afterlife"<br /><br />Governor of the 32nd Province of the New Lunar Republic. Luna Nobis Custodit

stromboli

#4
A former friend was from Colombia, a Mormon convert (long enough to get to the US as a BYU student) and majored in Political Science. After a few discussions, I determined that "science" and SA politics don't exist together. Later, he and I got pulled over in Mexico for speeding. I was driving. He was reading a pamphlet about Communism. He didn't say anything and I pretended to know no Spanish (partly true). The Federale finally gave up in disgust and waved us on. I think the $5 bribe might have been an incentive.

I learned that this Americano don' know shit about Hispanic politics, ese. I also learned the Tequila with the worm in it is the best.

Oh yeah; if you drive in Mexico, 80 KPH ain't the same as 80 MPH.

Baruch

Venezuela ... in my POV ... hasn't historically been particularly violent, unlike Argentina or Chile.  The price of petroleum dropping, is part of the undeclared war between the US and Russia over the last 2 years.  Venezuela founded OPEC, and SA is not playing by any OPEC rules at this point ... they are on a holy war to destroy Shia and Russia.  The badly run socialism (compared to say Norway) in Venezuela has resulted in many materials shortages ... Chavez' model was Castro.  The nationalization of the oil fields  under Chavez (they weren't fully nationalized before) was very offensive to the professional classes (including petroleum workers), plutocrats invested in petroleum, and the oil companies involved.  An abortive coup has already failed several years ago.  Chavez bringing back the gold owned by the Venezuelan state and his delusions of being a new Simon Bolivar ... were extremely offensive to ... conservatives everywhere.

I believe that ... mescal has the worm ... if you want one ... not tequila.  Mexican police are not to be fooled with ... they are often affiliated with the drug gangs.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

stromboli

Hard to call. there are a lot of different ethnicities in Venezuela, but as far as I know, that is not part of the equation. But I'm sure feelings against the US are pretty strong; no doubt looked upon or else labeled as the culprit. Without other resources or forms of income- and apparently because the state didn't prepare with any contingency funds or alternative funding sources- it will get even uglier. But personally  don't see civil war as a way out or even considered a viable solution.