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Trump Versus Biden

Started by Jason Harvestdancer, July 03, 2020, 09:46:46 PM

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Hydra009

Quote from: SGOS on November 05, 2020, 06:13:07 AMA record turnout probably helps Democrats, but it does not lessen Trump's staggering, if un-explainable popularity.
But it should.  It really should.

Let's assume that everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 is back at the same trough in 2020.  Can't fix stupid.

There were a TON of people who voted in 2020 who didn't vote in 2016.  They didn't drink the Trump flavor aid.  And if that vote accurately reflects the presidential approval/disapproval polls, that's enough to crush Trump in the battleground states, states that he just barely won in 2016.

Unbeliever

I doubt I'll believe the election result until I see who gets inaugurated in January.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Cassia

Quote from: Baruch on November 05, 2020, 10:38:27 AM
Some people have an obsession about Russia.  Probably they want Putin to "do" them.
Trump would like that. Also, some people are idiots too. And some are not as smart as that. It's OK because they don't even know it!

GSOgymrat

Quote from: Cassia on November 05, 2020, 10:31:57 AM
Mango Mussolini, LOL.  That is good. Tangerine Idi Amin was another that made me chuckle. There is a whole reddit just for such a thing. Dоиаld Ñ,гцмр, LOL. Sorry, I obviously have too much free time lately.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpNicknames/


President Tweety😊

drunkenshoe

Strike and stirke and strike and strike and strik x 100 till you have victory...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1324175651515949056
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

SGOS

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2020, 11:11:48 AM
But it should.  It really should.

Let's assume that everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 is back at the same trough in 2020.  Can't fix stupid.

There were a TON of people who voted in 2020 who didn't vote in 2016.  They didn't drink the Trump flavor aid.  And if that vote accurately reflects the presidential approval/disapproval polls, that's enough to crush Trump in the battleground states, states that he just barely won in 2016.
I actually made a half ass comparison by comparing Biden numbers to Trump popularity.  They are two different things that don't equate.  So what did I really mean?  First, what we actually do know is that it was a record turnout and both parties managed to get roughly equal numbers to the polls. That's where my facts end.

So the record turnout can only be half accounted for by the addition of lazy Democrats (not voting thinking Clinton was sure to win) and disaffected liberals (who have given up on the Democratic Party).  I think that's our assumption, and I believe Trump's behavior was abhorrent enough to warrant that assumption.  There could be other assumptions that work better.

So the remaining question is what woke up the half interested Republicans and got them to the polls this time?  The only thing I can think of is increased popularity of Trump.  Why?  That's a hard question, but we do know Republicans and potential Republicans were motivated.  And the "why" question can more accurately be answered by his constituents.  It's also possible that lazy Republicans and potential non-voting Republicans read the coming blue wave correctly and responded to it.  But I favor the popularity theory.  I think he did a lot for Republicans.  He woke up elements of our society and changed the country dramatically, not necessarily in what I consider good ways, but he made changes, and that in itself is extraordinary for a president IMO.

Hydra009

Quote from: SGOS on November 05, 2020, 01:38:02 PMSo the remaining question is what woke up the half interested Republicans and got them to the polls this time?  The only thing I can think of is increased popularity of Trump.  Why?  That's a hard question, but we do know Republicans and potential Republicans were motivated.  And the "why" question can more accurately be answered by his constituents.  It's also possible that lazy Republicans and potential non-voting Republicans read the coming blue wave correctly and responded to it.  But I favor the popularity theory.  I think he did a lot for Republicans.  He woke up elements of our society and changed the country dramatically, not necessarily in what I consider good ways, but he made changes, and that in itself is extraordinary for a president IMO.
Trump certainly took over the Republican Party (9 out of 10 support) and Trump certainly did his all to dominate the airwaves and connect with Republicans - through parasocial twitter relationships and through nonstop rallies, even during the pandemic (RIP Herman Cain).  Trump doesn't so much have constituents as he does adoring fans.  Republicans and Democrats certainly differ there.

But even if every conservative in the US is pro-Trump (35-40% of the US, iirc), that's still not enough to account for the election results.

Hydra009

Okay, I found data that makes the election results make sense.  Though it's from polls (I wish I could quit you)



Look familiar?

Bonus map:
[spoiler][/spoiler]

Hydra009

#713
Quote from: drunkenshoe on November 05, 2020, 01:36:44 PM
Strike and stirke and strike and strike and strik x 100 till you have victory...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1324175651515949056
https://twitter.com/Soapmoine/status/1324286193106898944

Actually pretty entertaining if you ignore what she's supporting.  I wish more people reacted like that guy in the back instead of encouraging this sort of cultish magical thinking.

Mr.Obvious

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2020, 02:04:22 PM
Okay, I found data that makes the election results make sense.  Though it's from polls (I wish I could quit you)



Look familiar?

Bonus map:
[spoiler][/spoiler]

I legit can't read that map. I can't see the difference in color between 'More conservative than average' and 'about average'.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

drunkenshoe

#715
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2020, 02:09:02 PM
https://twitter.com/Soapmoine/status/1324286193106898944

Actually pretty entertaining if you ignore what she's supporting.  I wish more people reacted like that guy in the back instead of encouraging this sort of cultish magical thinking.

Yeah...but isn't this better? E: Hydra, apparently, he is her son...LOL

https://twitter.com/i/status/1324299839140605953/video/1


"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

SGOS

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2020, 01:55:49 PM
But even if every conservative in the US is pro-Trump (35-40% of the US, iirc), that's still not enough to account for the election results.
It that percentage cannot account for Trump Support, then I don't know where else that support comes from.

Hydra009

Quote from: SGOS on November 05, 2020, 03:07:43 PM
It that percentage cannot account for Trump Support, then I don't know where else that support comes from.
Low-information voters?  Even then, I don't see how anyone who's been through the last 4 years could possibly want seconds.  Apparently, they do though.

Hydra009

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on November 05, 2020, 02:18:37 PMI legit can't read that map. I can't see the difference in color between 'More conservative than average' and 'about average'.
You might have some form of color blindness where pink is indistinguishable from gray.  Or a bad screen.

Pink (more conservative than normal): Ohio, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona
Gray (about average): Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, Nevada

Mr.Obvious

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2020, 04:02:10 PM
You might have some form of color blindness where pink is indistinguishable from gray.  Or a bad screen.

Pink (more conservative than normal): Ohio, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona
Gray (about average): Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, Nevada

Both. I cn tell the difference on my phone, I can see now.
But I do have daltonisme.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.