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Trump Versus Biden

Started by Jason Harvestdancer, July 03, 2020, 09:46:46 PM

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SGOS

Trump is petitioning the court to stop the ballot counting in Michigan?  This is crazy.  Just stop counting before Biden gets ahead.  The scary thing is I'm never surprised by some of the shit the courts do:  "Sure, sure.  We'll halt the ballot counting.  It's the only fair thing to do for you, Mr. Trump."  I think Trump wants a riot.  More chaos.  More excitement.  More fodder for an SNL skit.

Baruch

Just like 2000, hang all the Chads.  I feel sorry for those guys ;-)
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Hydra009

Quote from: SGOS on November 04, 2020, 05:28:03 PMTrump is petitioning the court to stop the ballot counting in Michigan?  This is crazy.  Just stop counting before Biden gets ahead.  The scary thing is I'm never surprised by some of the shit the courts do:  "Sure, sure.  We'll halt the ballot counting.  It's the only fair thing to do for you, Mr. Trump."  I think Trump wants a riot.  More chaos.  More excitement.  More fodder for an SNL skit.
That could be a good thing.  It means Trump thinks the remaining votes are not in his favor, which is good news for Biden.  And that sort of disenfranchisement would surely result in a lengthy legal battle and that sort of power grabbing behavior would surely de-legitimize Trump.

That sounds better in my head, where idealism isn't trampled over by goosestepping battalions of cultists and enablers and forgotten in a week.

drunkenshoe

It feels like, as it happened with the first one, he doesn't actually expect to win but just been acting around from the beginning.
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

trdsf

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 04, 2020, 09:31:39 AM
How the hell does that happen?  If anyone has a guess, lay it on me.
Been trying to sort that one out myself.  Polling isn't an exact science, but it is a science.  I have heard anecdotal evidence that Republicans are less likely to respond to a pollster (and one idiot on another forum I'm on who proudly admits he deliberately lies to pollsters) but can that really be widespread enough for this kind of variance?

It may be a phenomenon with Trump's cult of personality and might disappear if (I'm not confident in the GOP enough to say 'when', especially when the early buzz about who they might run in 2024 is Tucker Carlson) they run a more normal candidate again.

Republican politicians need accurate poll numbers too, so this isn't just something they can sit back and enjoy.  Either the pollsters will find the systemic flaw, or it'll go away when Trump does, and they don't want to be blindsided by assuming there's a hidden five point swing in their favor and finding out there isn't anymore.

Mostly I think it's a function of Trump's cult of personality and the mindless devotion of his base, and this is a danger sign for the GOP in the future, because they don't really have another Trump waiting in the wings who whips up the same levels of religious-type fervor.  If (when, preferably) he loses this year, and when (not if) the party elders try to reassert control, he very well might threaten to take his followers and set up Trump: The Party.

Whither the GOP then?
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Mr.Obvious

#695
News is a bit dodgy here, and not up to date. But is it true that Biden took Michigan? And if he takes Nevada, with 6 representatives, does he win?
The news as far as I can see it says he has 264 out of the needed 270. And he's leading be it marginally, in Nevada.
I don't want to get my hopes up just to get them dashed again.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

SGOS

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on November 05, 2020, 01:59:28 AM
News is a bit dodgy here, and not up to date. But is it true that Biden took Michigan? And if he takes Nevada, with 6 representatives, does he win?
The news as far as I can see it says he has 264 out of the needed 270. And he's leading be it marginally, in Nevada.
I don't want to get my hopes up just to get them dashed again.
That's what I read.  However, I'm cautious about this because I've read headlines that Biden won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona before he actually won them.  Yesterday, I even got a message from the Democratic Party saying Biden had won the election, so there's a lot of unofficial bullshit out there.  Trump declared he won the election two days ago, and that made it to the headlines too.  The Associated Press does call winners before all votes are counted, but they are pretty fussy about the way they do it. Still, they can make mistakes.  I'm cautiously, very cautiously, optimistic that Biden could win the election at this point.  Two days ago, I thought Trump had it in the bag.  Now it's doubtful.

But if Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, he "wins" is it's pretty much what I'm reading now.  Yesterday, the source I follow had him as "won" Arizona, but all this stuff is constantly changing, it could change in the time it takes to post.

GSOgymrat

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 04, 2020, 09:31:39 AM
...
How the hell does that happen?  If anyone has a guess, lay it on me.

From what I have read, there isn't consensus at this point why so many polls were off. From the New York Times:

Not every pollster fared poorly. Ann Selzer, long considered one of the top pollsters in the country, released a poll with The Des Moines Register days before the election showing Mr. Trump opening up a seven-point lead in Iowa; that appears to be in line with the actual result thus far.

In an interview, Ms. Selzer said that this election season she had stuck to her usual process, which involves avoiding assumptions that one year’s electorate will resemble those of previous years. “Our method is designed for our data to reveal to us what is happening with the electorate,” she said. “There are some that will weight their data taking into account many things â€" past election voting, what the turnout was, things from the past in order to project into the future. I call that polling backwards, and I don’t do it.”

SGOS

QuoteHow the hell does that happen?  If anyone has a guess, lay it on me.
It's easy to overthink this, but my first thought is that Trump has a very strong and passionate following.  While I can't understand why, it's easy to see that he does.  A record turnout probably helps Democrats, but it does not lessen Trump's staggering, if un-explainable popularity.  Biden does not have this sort of energy behind him.  Many Democrats and most disaffected liberals are voting for him mostly because he's not Trump.  This is not the kind of energy that leads to an overwhelming rout in an election.

Baruch

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on November 05, 2020, 01:59:28 AM
News is a bit dodgy here, and not up to date. But is it true that Biden took Michigan? And if he takes Nevada, with 6 representatives, does he win?
The news as far as I can see it says he has 264 out of the needed 270. And he's leading be it marginally, in Nevada.
I don't want to get my hopes up just to get them dashed again.

Probably, Biden has 50.6 % ... not that elections matter anymore or ever did.  But several states are contested, so it is unlikely either will get over 270 until the SCOTUS decides.   Which means whatever the CIA has decided.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

trdsf

Quote from: SGOS on November 05, 2020, 05:37:35 AM
That's what I read.  However, I'm cautious about this because I've read headlines that Biden won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona before he actually won them.  Yesterday, I even got a message from the Democratic Party saying Biden had won the election, so there's a lot of unofficial bullshit out there.  Trump declared he won the election two days ago, and that made it to the headlines too.  The Associated Press does call winners before all votes are counted, but they are pretty fussy about the way they do it. Still, they can make mistakes.  I'm cautiously, very cautiously, optimistic that Biden could win the election at this point.  Two days ago, I thought Trump had it in the bag.  Now it's doubtful.

But if Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, he "wins" is it's pretty much what I'm reading now.  Yesterday, the source I follow had him as "won" Arizona, but all this stuff is constantly changing, it could change in the time it takes to post.
Fox, the AP and the BBC have called Arizona for Biden, and Fox's call prompting a screaming purple fit over the phone at Rupert Murdoch by the Mango Mussolini; Wisconsin and Michigan have been called for Biden by the AP.  At this point, any of Nevada, Pennsylvania or Georgia will seal the deal; Biden currently leads in Nevada, and is rapidly closing the gap in both PA and GA, though whether that's going to be enough remains to be seen.  So of course Lord Dampnut's legal team is demanding they stop the count while he's still ahead, because voting is only a right if you vote for who he wants.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Cassia

Mango Mussolini, LOL.  That is good. Tangerine Idi Amin was another that made me chuckle. There is a whole reddit just for such a thing. Dоиаld Ñ,гцмр, LOL. Sorry, I obviously have too much free time lately.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpNicknames/

Baruch

Some people have an obsession about Russia.  Probably they want Putin to "do" them.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

SGOS

Quote from: trdsf on November 05, 2020, 10:17:13 AM
Biden ... is rapidly closing the gap in both PA and GA
I heard that on NPR this morning.  Two days ago, I thought both those states were forgone conclusions for Trump. 

Hydra009

Quote from: trdsf on November 05, 2020, 10:17:13 AMFox, the AP and the BBC have called Arizona for Biden
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with that news, but I'm looking at the New York Times map and it has Biden with a ~2% lead in Arizona with only 86% of the results.  Does AP have more recent info?