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Trump Versus Biden

Started by Jason Harvestdancer, July 03, 2020, 09:46:46 PM

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Hydra009

#675
So...a lot to unpack about this election while I'm calm enough to type it out.

For starters, the polling is deeply flawed.  No doubt about that.  I'm decisively in the wrong about polling. 
Whoever was skeptical about the polls going into this election was absolutely right.

I hooked my ship up to 538 and boy, were those forecasts incorrect.  538 gave Biden a 90% chance of winning.  The Economist gave Biden a whopping 97% chance of winning.  Biden was up 8 points nationally - a steady and sustained lead since May.  He polled better in much of the battleground states as well - up 5 points in Pennsylvania, 8 points in Michigan, 8 points in Wisconsin, 9 points in Minnesota.  So even if the polls are off by 3-4 points, that's still a Biden lead.  Apparently not!

So riddle me this:
*  Record-breaking turnout (which tends to favor the Dems)
*  Independent voters favor the Dems
*  Historically unpopular incumbent
*  Massive unemployment (which tends to favor the challenger)
*  Horrific crisis that's people's #1 concern and the incumbent says it's no big deal, goes golfing, hosts superspreader events, praises demon sperm lady, gets sick himself, then blames China.  I mean FFS people...
* Incumbent reportedly slipping with some of his demographics
* Challenger leads in the polls

Election Night result: (Probable) Incumbent victory

How the hell does that happen?  If anyone has a guess, lay it on me.

Hydra009

Quote from: drunkenshoe on November 04, 2020, 02:36:42 AM
Why is everything so familiar. We had the same thing in the local elections. The obvious party made a victory speech before the results were in. It was very close. Then re-election, re-count and they have lost.

What is he doing? Is it that certain? This alone would cause violence if he loses in the end because all those groups are now brainwashed with a Trump Victory. Like instant soup.

What is going on?
I have absolutely no idea, and that scares me.

This is like The Mule in the Foundation Series, except with no Second Foundation to bail us out.  Today, Hari Seldon's hologram is turning on and he's currently telling us to transition our economy away from fossil fuels, repair our strained relationships with our allies, watch out for an incoming wave of knuckle-dragging democratic backsliding, and resist authoritarian "strongmen" who might try to claw their way to power.

I can safely say that it is every bit as shocking and disheartening in real life as it was in the books.

Hydra009

One final thing, all the ballots aren't in yet, and it's not a done deal till they are:

https://twitter.com/onikasgivenchy/status/1323857811734933504

PickelledEggs


Hydra009

Quote from: PickelledEggs on November 04, 2020, 12:05:24 PMI hate the red states
Some of the red states are getting bluer and vice versa.  NC, Georgia, Arizona are all toss-ups.  Meanwhile, the Great Lakes states plus Pennsylvania are no longer reliably blue.

It's not too late to pull an India (circa 1947) and breakup into the United States of Canada and Jesusland.  Educated southerners could move north and the inverse could move south.  Both parties are dying to run a simple experiment: does a Western european-style democracy or a theocratic state (with fascist undertones) fare better in the world?  We could settle that question once and for all.

Baruch

#680
Quote from: PickelledEggs on November 04, 2020, 12:05:24 PM
I hate the red states

China can have the blue states ;-)

Half of America hated the other half, in 1860.  They still do, but they can move around ... because cars.  The British and French Empires were tempted to intervene on behalf of the Democrats.  The Russian Empire prevented that.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

drunkenshoe

Meanwhile in the Middle East...Turkish Trump supporters and Biden supporters here have been insulting, cussing and cursing each other the whole day. It's disgusting. Also the fascist group banned by the French a few days ago has been supporting Trump very loudly and moronically considering the slogans, wtf? They sound like they want to adopt him.

I wouldn't be surprised if violence broke out. Oh everything is so stupid.



"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

Baruch

#682
Quote from: drunkenshoe on November 04, 2020, 02:35:57 PM
Meanwhile in the Middle East...Trump supporters and Biden supporters here have been insulting, cussing and cursing each other the whole day. It's disgusting. Also the fascist group banned by the French a few days ago has been supporting Trump very loudly and moronically considering the slogans, wtf? They sound like they want to adopt him.

I wouldn't be surprised if violence broke out. Oh everything is so stupid.

That isn't nothing compared to how much America hates non-American countries ;-)  There is a reason why we were isolationist in 1940.  I am odd man out on that.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Mr.Obvious

Quote from: drunkenshoe on November 04, 2020, 02:35:57 PM
Meanwhile in the Middle East...Turkish Trump supporters and Biden supporters here have been insulting, cussing and cursing each other the whole day. It's disgusting. Also the fascist group banned by the French a few days ago has been supporting Trump very loudly and moronically considering the slogans, wtf? They sound like they want to adopt him.

I wouldn't be surprised if violence broke out. Oh everything is so stupid.

The world of stupid
Man kills man who kills again
The ride never ends
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Cassia

I just had to cash out and sell some shares today (very unexpectedly.)  Nothing makes sense anymore.

Baruch

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on November 04, 2020, 03:08:15 PM
The world of stupid
Man kills man who kills again
The ride never ends

Do you morally judge cats and dogs?

The longer it takes ... particularly if the SCOTUS has to judge it, as in 2000, the higher stocks will go.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Hydra009

Quote from: drunkenshoe on November 04, 2020, 02:35:57 PM
Meanwhile in the Middle East...Turkish Trump supporters and Biden supporters here have been insulting, cussing and cursing each other the whole day.
Is...is that a thing?  I've been so preoccupied with US politics that you could tell me that all of South America got swallowed up by the sea and I'd probably take your word for it.  Also, 3 hours sleep.

SGOS

Well having gotten my predictions all wrong, all I can say is this is a Hell of a ride.  And after making a big deal about going to bed, I couldn't sleep.  I think you got more than I did.  I was up making coffee before midnight.

drunkenshoe

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 04, 2020, 05:08:58 PM
Is...is that a thing?  I've been so preoccupied with US politics that you could tell me that all of South America got swallowed up by the sea and I'd probably take your word for it.  Also, 3 hours sleep.

It's real. Most of the people are watching the US elections and fighting about it here. Well, that can't be called a discussion.  Biden doesn't have real supporters, it is more like Trump supporters and people against Trump and his supporters.

So I didn't really know what to say to the pic you have posted -or SGOS's question- lol. Trump vs People? It's so weird, I don't know what to think about anything.
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

drunkenshoe

"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp