Author Topic: Trump Versus Biden  (Read 12905 times)

Offline Baruch

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #570 on: October 29, 2020, 11:13:29 AM »
Maybe America will elect Kanye West...

Absolutely!  If I considered myself not to old to vote, I would definitely vote for him.  Seriously.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ ła’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Offline Baruch

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #571 on: October 29, 2020, 11:16:07 AM »
I recently read that more than half of eligible voters in the USA don't vote.  The NYT interviewed a handful.  I don't know if interviewees were representative or not.  They were just felt disenfranchised by a system that did not represent their needs.  Apparently, being told by politicians that they would benefit if they voted for whoever was not convincing enough.  Non voters tended towards being uneducated and poor.  I don't think that necessarily disqualifies them from consideration, however.  But that's a lot of hopeless people.

Systematic class warfare against Black and White.  The Middle Class are part of the problem, not part of the solution, man.

Polls are COINTELPRO ... they don't measure politics, they move it
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 11:20:40 AM by Baruch »
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ ła’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Offline Baruch

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #572 on: October 29, 2020, 11:17:47 AM »
I envy you.

The banjo is the only musical instrument invented in America.  Jazz and rap are the only musical forms invented in America.  Which group did this?

Turks have belly dancing I guess ... not bad.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 11:21:19 AM by Baruch »
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ ła’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Offline Baruch

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #573 on: October 29, 2020, 11:18:48 AM »
According to the US Census Bureau, these are reasons given by eligible voters why they did not vote in the presidential election in 2016:

Did not like candidates or campaign issues (4.7 million)
Not interested (2.9 million)
Too busy, conflicting schedule (2.7 million)
Illness or disability (2.2 million)
Other reason (2.1 million)
Out of town (1.5 million)
Registration problems (0.8 million)
Forgot to vote (0.6 million)
Don’t know or refused (0.5 million)
Transportation problems (0.5 million)
Inconvenient polling place (0.4 million)
Bad weather conditions (0.01 million)

They forgot two ...

BLM/AntiFa will murder me
KKK/NeoNazis will murder me ...
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 11:21:37 AM by Baruch »
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ ła’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Online Hydra009

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #574 on: October 29, 2020, 10:38:48 PM »
I recently read a poll that gives Biden an 8 percentage point lead over Trump, and 5% to 8% Biden leads seem to be about standard for the last month.  I can't remember Hillary's lead, but I remember what I considered a similar small percentage for her.  5% to 8% (or even less) should not and did not guarantee a slam dunk on election day, which should not have been the huge surprise that it was.

I also read a poll that attached the standard of error of +/- 8 to Biden's 8 point lead which means his lead could also be zero.  Granted it could also be +16, but whatever.  It's like Biden has an 8% lead with a standard error of +/- 8, but there is also a standard error of +/- 22 that the standard error of+/- 8 is incorrect.

I've read that pollsters have said that they have taken note of their errors in 2016, and corrected for that, but honestly I have read nothing where a pollster explains what they have done to correct what they did wrong. And to make it more complicated, the chances that they have accurately identified their errors correctly has a standard error of +/- 87.  Do these guys know what they are doing?  OK, they are probably better than us asking our friends what they think.  What we may need are retired bookies who made their living coming up with odds on horses.  Oh wait.  They might be the same people that do presidential polls already.
That's a great question!  And the full answer could and likely will be a best-seller.  But we don't have that kind of time, so I'll try to be as brief as possible:

1) 2016 had more undecideds and less turnout than 2020, with generally poor favorability ratings for both candidatesThat has changed.
2) Biden has a larger lead than Clinton ever did, it's consistent, and the gap hasn't narrowed nearly as much, though it has narrowed in some of the battleground states, it's very different than 2016
3) Pollsters didn't weight the No College Degree category correctly in 2016, they've since corrected that.
4) Pollsters flubbed the Great Lakes states in 2016, they've since corrected that.

A lot of information there, honestly too much to really deal with all at once, so mull over it at your convenience and I'm more than willing to provide more info or take questions on specific points.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 10:45:05 PM by Hydra009 »

Online Hydra009

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #575 on: October 29, 2020, 10:41:53 PM »
In lieu of 1000 words:



If 2020 polls are off by the same amount they were in 2016, Trump would pick up some of the close states, but not enough to win.

Source
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 10:49:10 PM by Hydra009 »

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #576 on: October 30, 2020, 01:16:37 AM »
"Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound."
--Fulke Greville

Offline drunkenshoe

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #577 on: October 30, 2020, 04:05:08 AM »
The banjo is the only musical instrument invented in America.  Jazz and rap are the only musical forms invented in America.  Which group did this?

Turks have belly dancing I guess ... not bad.

Yeah because this is about black culture and music, right? Kanye West is a narcissist billioner who made his money from some sports wear and his fame, largely from his outbursts and his wife. It's a clever marriage business. He doesn't represent anything. He is one of the last people to represent African Americans. The fact that a large group of people deify figures like him is a result of modern culture and societies teaching children deify money & fame at every cost for the power that comes with it.

What does belly dancing have to with any of this? 
"I believe you find life such a problem because you think there are good people and bad people. You're wrong, of course. There are, always and only, the bad people, but some of them are on opposite sides." Havelock Vetinari

Offline Baruch

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #578 on: October 30, 2020, 11:32:15 AM »
Yeah because this is about black culture and music, right? Kanye West is a narcissist billioner who made his money from some sports wear and his fame, largely from his outbursts and his wife. It's a clever marriage business. He doesn't represent anything. He is one of the last people to represent African Americans. The fact that a large group of people deify figures like him is a result of modern culture and societies teaching children deify money & fame at every cost for the power that comes with it.

What does belly dancing have to with any of this?

The problem with communists, they are all envious murderers.  Like in the NT parable of the share croppers who kill the son of the landlord.  Capitalists are like the prodigal son however.

Yes, real African-Americans are like the Black antagonist in Black Panther.  As Mike CL will ironically say, fiction isn't real.  I have worked with dozens of African-Americans for 40 years, and none of them are like that.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 11:33:50 AM by Baruch »
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ ła’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Online Hydra009

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #579 on: October 30, 2020, 01:13:32 PM »


Do you guys remember when Trump ran as a populist and pretended to champion the working class?  That illusion is broken and has been broken for quite some time.

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #580 on: October 30, 2020, 01:28:41 PM »


Do you guys remember when Trump ran as a populist and pretended to champion the working class?  That illusion is broken and has been broken for quite some time.

My younger brother lives in a large housing development with less expensive homes at the entry to the community and more expensive homes further in. He commented that the entry-level homes all have blue political yard signs and as the home increase in cost the signs turn red.
“You are the sky. Everything else – it’s just the weather.”

― Pema Chödrön

Online Hydra009

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #581 on: October 30, 2020, 01:38:55 PM »
My younger brother lives in a large housing development with less expensive homes at the entry to the community and more expensive homes further in. He commented that the entry-level homes all have blue political yard signs and as the home increase in cost the signs turn red.
Yep, broadly true.

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #582 on: October 30, 2020, 03:31:25 PM »
When are the middle class / poor Conservatives going to finally realize Republicans don't care about them? The idea that making the richer richer is somehow going to result in that money trickling down to them, rather than in some offshore, tax free account is just delusional. They don't respond to getting more money by investing more in their employees.
"Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound."
--Fulke Greville


Offline Baruch

Re: Trump Versus Biden
« Reply #584 on: October 30, 2020, 04:02:16 PM »
When are the middle class / poor Conservatives going to finally realize Republicans don't care about them? The idea that making the richer richer is somehow going to result in that money trickling down to them, rather than in some offshore, tax free account is just delusional. They don't respond to getting more money by investing more in their employees.

When are Americans going to finally realize that Democrats only care about criminals and Chinese politburo members?
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ ła’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.