Wuhan Corona virus

[Hydra009]

Washington orders insurance companies to waive copays, deductibles for coronavirus testing

Communism!  How can we possibly afford this as a country, we're practically stretched to our limit over here!  *kicks the wars and tax cuts for the rich under the rug*

[GSOgymrat]

Washington orders insurance companies to waive copays, deductibles for coronavirus testing

Communism!  How can we possibly afford this as a country, we're practically stretched to our limit over here!  *kicks the wars and tax cuts for the rich under the rug*

That's not a tough sell for the insurance industry simply because they have a financial incentive to avoid costly inpatient levels of care. They really, really don't want people getting seriously ill. The average cost of being on a ventilator is approximately $20,000 ADDED to the total cost of the hospital bill.

[Hijiri Byakuren]

I have some extra-strength dayquil and nyquil on standby in case I get this thing. Orange juice and vitamin-C gummies will also be consumed at the first sign of trouble.

I happen to live in Washington State, so I won't be totally fucked if I miss work. We have pretty good laws about sick leave here, relative to the rest of the US at least.

[Baruch]

Relevant ...

If the world is destroyed by a plague, don't just stand there and let a crazed MSM cult leader (Cenk) toss a spear into your chest!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsrSXyPk7tk

[Baruch]

Hard math ...

Given first US fatality was 2/29 ... assuming doubling of total fatalities every 2 days ... assuming 60% of population gets it, assuming 20% of the cases are severe, and 10% of the severe cases are fatal ... 10%x20%x60%x330 million people = 3.96 million deaths.  How long until we get there, to burnout?  How ugly is the exponential function ...

Total US Deaths:
128 - 4/14
65536 - 4/31
8388608 - 5/14

So we reach Covid-19 burnout about the 11th of May.

GB first fatality was 5 days after first fatality in the US.  Given the same percentages against a smaller population ... GB reaches Covid-19 burnout about the 16th of May.  With a final total of 810,000 deaths.

What if the doubling time is 4 days instead of 2 days?  Then it takes twice as many days from initial fatality to reach burnout.  Basically still this calendar year.

The worse problem is, there are only 100,000 ICU beds in the US.  All the beds will be filled before the end of April.  At that point the fatality rate will go up.

[Baruch]

"Former British Supermarket Boss Warns Of Potential Covid-19 "Food Riots", Army Patrols" ... so much trouble over so little Marmite!

"Media Vilifies Preppers And Those Stocking Up As "Selfish Hoarders" As Potential Mass Quarantine Looms" ... there might not be enough supplies left for the paid-for talking-heads and their families when they hunker down in the millionaire's fortresses.

"Shocking New Study Concludes That "Best Case Scenario" For A Covid-19 Pandemic Is 15 Million Dead" ... we can hope for a better best-case than that, I hope!

"Expect Up To 40% Of Tehran's Population To Be Infected In 2 Weeks: Iranian Health Official" ... note to self, don't live like it is 500 years ago if you have any choice.

[Baruch]

How are the US numbers trending ...

Feb 29 - first US fatality

Mar 7 - 16 total US fatalities

The statistics of small numbers are expected to be unreliable.  But in which direction?  A quick check says that the total fatalities are doubling approx. every 2 days.

[PopeyesPappy]

Hard math ...

Not hard math, but I did this yesterday.

Given an Ro of 1.8, which is less than the 2 to 3 I have seen bandied about on the Internet, and an incubation rate of 14 days, which is on the long side of what they currently think, this is what the COVID-19 infection rate is going to look like.



I got the Ro and incubation rate numbers by tweaking them until I hit about 90,000 after 90 days which is about where we are now. If this is right, and I'm sure it isn't, and the Ro remains constant, there should be about 1.8 million cases 30 days from now. In 60 days it will be 67 million. 2.5 billion in 90 days. 10 days after that everybody on the planet then some will have been infected.

If these numbers are close (which I doubt) and the death rate stays about 3.2% there will be 2.1 million dead in 60 days, and 80 million dead in 90.

That doesn't take into account the death rate going way up once the hospitals are beyond capacity.

[Baruch]

No sign of panic in the streets or stores here (Farmington NM is in the middle of nowhere).  I did have to run over a few seniors older than me who were hoarding the hand sanitizer and holding up the check out line ;-) If the zombie apocalypse happens it will happen in Albuquerque and Las Cruces first (Albuquerque is the largest city, and Las Cruces is uncomfortably close to El Paso TX).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxFAJAgAvbo

Right now most cases are in those Third World shitholes known as metropolitan areas, like Seattle, San Francisco, NYC and Miami.  Fortunately I am as far away from that shit as I can get, you dig?

On exponential curve calculation above ... if this really started in December, then 100 days later is March 10 to April 10.

[Baruch]

More happy thoughts ...

"With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis" ... one estimate when the US runs out of hospital beds.  Don't know if this is ICU or all hospital beds.  But the timing is about right.  Fortunately my Ex just complied her operation last month.  So if you have a surgery scheduled, you might want to recheck availability.

""It's Like Scenes From A Mad Max Movie" - Americans Continue Epic Run On Costco" ... this only happens in Ausi-American neighborhoods ;-)

"Police Quarantine California Neighborhood After Coronavirus Death" ... just quarantine the whole state.  Don't let any more Californians migrate ;-)

""It's An Awful Situation": Washington Moves To Take Over Nursing Home At Epicenter Of Outbreak" ... mother passed in nursing home 3 years ago.  But friend has mother-in-law in a nursing home.  Will pray for her.

[Munch]

It is fascinating to watch how the populous reacts during this time.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0zSmycYlyHc

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_TWHQUXutw

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wc9XN259D0w

It's like watching the evolutionary process de-evolve and people becoming their primate ancestors

Things like empathy, community, sharing, rationalisation, nope, let's just become apes to one another

[Baruch]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmX7K8noikE

Dem bones, dem bones ...

Still waiting for our Lunar colony.

Structuralism/Post-Structuralism in philosophy ... the individual and collective personality is a construct, a house of cards.  Push on it hard enough and it falls over.  Now pass me that banana ... you dirty ape!

[PopeyesPappy]

More happy thoughts ...

"With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis" ... one estimate when the US runs out of hospital beds.  Don't know if this is ICU or all hospital beds.  But the timing is about right.  Fortunately my Ex just complied her operation last month.  So if you have a surgery scheduled, you might want to recheck availability.

""It's Like Scenes From A Mad Max Movie" - Americans Continue Epic Run On Costco" ... this only happens in Ausi-American neighborhoods ;-)

"Police Quarantine California Neighborhood After Coronavirus Death" ... just quarantine the whole state.  Don't let any more Californians migrate ;-)

""It's An Awful Situation": Washington Moves To Take Over Nursing Home At Epicenter Of Outbreak" ... mother passed in nursing home 3 years ago.  But friend has mother-in-law in a nursing home.  Will pray for her.

I posted this on another forum on Friday.

If it gets really bad to the point where the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed you can expect the death rate to go up. One of the MSM networks did an interview last night with a doctor that was worried about the availability of ventilators. The doctor said they were already looking at how to put 2 people on a single ventilator. If it spreads beyond that point they'll be stacking dead old people like cord wood in the hallways.

Numbers are hard to come by, but according to one study in 2009 there were only about 78,000 critical care beds in US hospitals. That number represented a 15% growth since 2000. Assuming the same growth rate between we would be looking at about 91,000 critical care beds today. Another study said that in 2015 critical care beds made up about 14.1% of the total. A different place says we currently have about 924,000 total hospital beds so 14.1% of of that is about 130,000. In any case we don't have 150,000 critical care beds and at any given point in time a lot of them are occupied by people with other problems so the total available for critical COVID-19 patients is only going to be a fraction of the total. None of that even takes into account a significant portion of the medical staff being unavailable because they are sick.

BTW according to the same news segment some areas are already seeing shortages of antibiotics because the Chinese plants that make most of the ingredients are shut down. While that does not affect Corona virus patients it sure could affect a lot of other sick people.

[Sal1981]

3Blue1Brown has made a video on the growth of the virus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

[Baruch]

14 million still in quarantine in Wuhan alone ... but Italy just declared a 16 million quarantine for N Italy .. and some asshole leaked the proclamation so that more chaos would result.  Anarchists strike again.