Previously 'The big ol' 2020 debate', turned Baruch's personal waste bin.

Started by Mr.Obvious, January 27, 2020, 06:37:30 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Hydra009

#645
The police brutality protests are coinciding with a surge in voter registration.

It would be a real shame if our bunker-withered Orange got thrown out in the trash.

QuoteAlthough the group can’t make a direct link in the surge of registrations to the protests, DeWitt said it suggests that voters are looking for extensive changes to their government.
Understatement of the year.

Baruch

"Rasmussen: Black Approval For Trump Surges To Over 40%" ... turns out, decades of Black on Black crime isn't a positive for the Democrats.  Supporting riots and looting offends most people of most colors.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Shiranu

Polls are now showing Biden and Trump tied in Texas, which is fucking mindblowing.

If my vote will really count, it looks like I will be voting Biden instead of Green this election. Was looking forward to my first protest vote, but what do you know... Trump really managed to make himself THAT unpopular that even in a conservative state there is a chance to beat him.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Baruch

Quote from: Shiranu on June 06, 2020, 05:08:39 PM
Polls are now showing Biden and Trump tied in Texas, which is fucking mindblowing.

If my vote will really count, it looks like I will be voting Biden instead of Green this election. Was looking forward to my first protest vote, but what do you know... Trump really managed to make himself THAT unpopular that even in a conservative state there is a chance to beat him.

It doesn't matter who does polls or who votes, but who statistically massages the polls or counts the votes.  Texas has been infiltrated by Californicators for several decades ;-)
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

trdsf

I want to take a quick look at the Senate races right now, because those are getting quite interesting, as several places that should be "red wall" states are not only competitive, but too close to call, and some are even veeeeery slightly leaning Democratic.

Let's start off with Doug Jones in Alabama, who's really only going to survive if the GOP nominates the kiddie-fiddler again (and they're not going to) and there's another wave year like 2018 (which is at least possible).  This may turn out to be the only bright spot for the Republicans all night this November.

First on the list is Montana, where the term-limited Democratic governor is running for the Senate, and polling is starting to drift in his direction.

It's even more interesting in Kansas where the likely nominee is a former Republican who switched parties because "Morally, the [Republican Party] is not going where my compass resides.  I’m looking forward to being in a party that represents the ideals that I do...."  Statewide polling shows she's in a statistical tie with any of the three potential Republican nominees currently.  The fourth Republican in the primary is running as a (this is not a typographical error) "Republican Socialist".

The latest poll in Iowa shows Joni Ernst down by two (within the MoE) against Theresa Greenfield, and it's been trending away from Ernst over time.

Likewise in Georgia, where they have a primary on Tuesday to determine who's running against David Perdue this fall, Jon Ossoff is back, and he's polling strong against the incumbent, recently having taken a (within the MoE) 2% lead.  The other seat formerly held by Isakson is 'jungle primary' style, where if none of the candidates takes 50% on Election Day, the top two will have a runoff in December, and there's just too much going on to even hazard a guess which way it's going to break.  The incumbent installed by the governor earlier this year is currently tied for fourth with 'Undecided', behind another Republican and both Democrats.

South Carolina is oddly enough in the mixâ€"Lindsey Graham is not popular.  Both candidates have a favorability rating of 35%, but while Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison's unfavorable rating is 28%, Graham's is 56%, and the latest poll has them both on 42%.

Lastly, I have to wonder why there's no polling in Kentucky.  Senator Yertle is also not popular, or more accurately NOT POPULARâ€"the only senator with a higher disapproval rating in their state is Susan Collins, and she's in political freefall right now.  Granted the local politics of Maine and Kentucky differ, but that still won't make this an easy year for Moscow Mitch, and if it turns into another wave year his likely opponent (primary is later this month), retired Marine Lt-Col. Amy McGrath, may be exactly the kind of Democrat that can attract Kentuckians.  Curiously, I can't find any head-to-head polling more recent than February... which had them in a dead heat.

As matters stand right now, we're looking at no worse than a divided Senate... but if it's another blue wave, there are definitely some unexpected targets within reach.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Shiranu

Also in Kentucky is Charles Booker, basically a Green who is running as a Democrat and is fighting for Mitch's seat. I don't know how well he is doing, but I'm rooting for him.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

Quote“This fall, it’s time for new leadership in this country â€" Republican, Democrat or independent,” said William H McRaven, the retired Navy admiral who directed the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. “President Trump has shown he doesn’t have the qualities necessary to be a good commander in chief.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-presidential-us-election-republicans-george-w-bush-mitt-romney-a9553111.html

Plus, Colin Powell is supporting Biden.  I dunno if that's much of an endorsement, considering Powell's infamous WMD speech (I guess we all make mistakes, but that was a hell of a mistake), but every bit helps.

Mike Cl

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 07, 2020, 11:19:43 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-presidential-us-election-republicans-george-w-bush-mitt-romney-a9553111.html

Plus, Colin Powell is supporting Biden.  I dunno if that's much of an endorsement, considering Powell's infamous WMD speech (I guess we all make mistakes, but that was a hell of a mistake), but every bit helps.
At one point, I was willing to vote for Powell for president.  Then he gave him famous WMD speech and he became a traitor in my eyes.  As a former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he knew intelligence inside and out.  He knew he was not telling the truth.  Yet he did it anyway.  I cannot excuse him for that; he should be in prison with with Bush, Cheney and Rice--at the very least.  But at least he isn't backing the orange monster.   
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?<br />Then he is not omnipotent,<br />Is he able but not willing?<br />Then whence cometh evil?<br />Is he neither able or willing?<br />Then why call him god?

trdsf

Quote from: Shiranu on June 07, 2020, 10:12:27 PM
Also in Kentucky is Charles Booker, basically a Green who is running as a Democrat and is fighting for Mitch's seat. I don't know how well he is doing, but I'm rooting for him.
I haven't seen any polling on the primary, but the general assumption is that it's kind of a formality at this point.  McGrath has the statewide name recognition that the other candidates don't have, as well as the campaign war chest.  She's certainly running on that basis -- her primary ads are about getting rid of Moscow Mitch and not the other candidates.

With a good showing this year, though, Booker can position himself well for the next time Paul has to face the voters.  Build for the future, always.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Baruch

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 07, 2020, 11:19:43 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-presidential-us-election-republicans-george-w-bush-mitt-romney-a9553111.html

Plus, Colin Powell is supporting Biden.  I dunno if that's much of an endorsement, considering Powell's infamous WMD speech (I guess we all make mistakes, but that was a hell of a mistake), but every bit helps.

Unfortunately Coliin Powell forever shamed all the "affirmative action" hires.  He might not have known that Cheney was playing him (George W was busy choking on potato chips).  From the WH, it wasn't a mistake, it was a lie.  The love Michelle Obama has for George W is creepy, but then her husband is an even bigger war monger than George W ;-(
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

SGOS

#655
Quote from: Mike Cl on June 07, 2020, 11:26:37 PM
At one point, I was willing to vote for Powell for president.  Then he gave him famous WMD speech and he became a traitor in my eyes.  As a former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he knew intelligence inside and out.  He knew he was not telling the truth.  Yet he did it anyway.  I cannot excuse him for that; he should be in prison with with Bush, Cheney and Rice--at the very least.  But at least he isn't backing the orange monster.   
I watched that speech on CNN with Powell holding up out of focus satellite images of what "might be semi trucks."  But no one ever got to look inside, because the Iraqis kept moving them around (a highly suspicious thing to do with semi trucks, especially from Iraqis).  And then he showed diagrams of a typical bio-weapon machine, done with the childlike simplicity of a Bayer aspirin diagram showing how a pill goes down the esophagus and relieves pain: "See now the germs and germ food stuff goes into the open vat, and then the germs come out the spout and flow through a funnel into another container.  Yep!  That's a bio-weapon machine all right.

Semi trucks
Semi trucks that don't stay put
Diagram of bio-weapon machine

Oh, wait I get it.  There are bio-weapon machines on trucks.  I know this because he showed us the diagrams.  It had arrows and everything showing the way germs flowed.  After the speech Wolf Blitzer was smiling (thinking of how much money CNN was going to make off this).  He said, "There you have it; A speech from Colin Powell that will make the invasion of Iraq a given."  He never posed the question, "How does all this prove WMDs?"  He was just delighted with the speech.  Well, OK, he's not a journalist.  He's just another talking head, although he's the main talking head.  He's not supposed to ask hard questions, or in this case, just obvious questions.  I stopped watching CNN after that, and my regard for Blitzer went down the toilet, along with Colin Powell.

Would this have been as convincing if America was not in hysterics after 9-11?  Who knows?  Probably, I guess.

Baruch

The problem with "intelligence analysis" ... is seeing what you want to see.  The data is ambiguous.  As long as there is no direct contradiction to the narrative you want to see (Iraq will nuke the US) ... then the narrative is viable, and preferred if it makes you look smart to the boss.  For example ... Trump is a Russian agent.  There is no proof he isn't, and if that is your preferred narrative (for whatever reasons) then you can take it as a working hypothesis ;-)

So in 2003, there was no proof that the Iraqis didn't have nukes (the Pakistanis did, and could have supplied them to Iraq).  So if it works for you, to have that narrative (pushed by Iraqi exile Chalabi, who wanted to be our vice-roy in Baghdad), then push it.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

Pelosi, Schumer and Nadler swear allegiance to Wakanda ...

"How is it not "cultural appropriation" for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, & Jerrold Nadler to show up to the Capitol wearing West African "Kente Cloth""  ... all Democrats are Dolezal.

"if anyone can’t understand why Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and them dressed up like they’re trying to sneak into Wakanda is disrespectful and appropriative you have a great deal to learn." ... liberals are G-d's gift to mankind.  They aren't virtue signaling, they are saints.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

Valuable infographic on cognitive bias ...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/11-cognitive-biases-influence-politics/

This is why I don't support democracy.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

"Biden's team rules out supporting 'defund police' movement" ... sorry to see this.  If he went full Bernie, it would lower his chances ;-)

"Lawsuit claims Michigan risks fraud, as county has more registered voters than people who can vote" ... has happened before in other counties.  Dems leave no fake vote un balloted.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.