Previously 'The big ol' 2020 debate', turned Baruch's personal waste bin.

Started by Mr.Obvious, January 27, 2020, 06:37:30 AM

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PopeyesPappy

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 07, 2020, 06:39:51 PM
Well, I refuse to accept yet another defeat.  So, before it's too late (though it probably is already to late), I am pleading with people to not vote for the "safe" candidate and instead vote their goddamn values like they should have from the very start.
Yeah, well, good luck with that.  I guess we'll find out for sure and then we can revisit this discussion in the fullness of time.

You're fucked then. Conservatives and moderates together outnumber liberals 7 to 3.



A liberal presidential candidate is going to have to pull more than 65% of the moderate vote to beat the conservative opposition, and the further to the left a liberal gets the harder it is going to be to get those moderate votes. 
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.

Hydra009

Quote from: trdsf on March 07, 2020, 07:16:24 PMMy apologies for daring to have a nuanced take on modern American politics, and goals beyond the aspirations of one politician.
You do know my whole thing is to reinvigorate the Democrats with actually leftist policy goals and save it from its emerging status as a status quo party?  Suffice it to say that this is a LOT bigger than just Bernie.

QuoteAnd I defy you to assert that a Biden presidency would be the bigoted, moronic kleptocracy currently in operation.  You cannot with any legitimacy say that it would be the same or worse; it may not be what you think is the best, but it would be better.
Yes.  A dwarf pony with a penchant for arson would be a better president.  Your point?

QuoteI just want to ask one question: if the Democratic nominee is Biden rather than Sanders, is getting rid of Trump important enough to you that you'll go out and vote anyway?  If yes, fine, we simply have a difference of opinion on how best to move the nation forward and I'll be happy to debate the matter further if you can back down from your hyperbolic tone.
*noticeable hesitation* Yes.

If Biden keeps it together and the VP pick isn't godawful.  If it's Bloomberg, I'm going to jump out of this Party like my pants are on fire and re-register as an independent.

QuoteOh, and where that progressive infrastructure's going to come from?  Do what I'm doing: I quite like our current Congresswoman.  I have no objection to her continuing to be my Congresswoman.  She's being primaried from the left this year even though she's already quite progressive... and I'm voting for her challenger because of that.
I voted for a Progressive in the local races as well. 

Quote*sigh*  This is why Bernie supporters have such a bad reputation.  It's such a cult of personality, and it's like arguing with a creationist.
Oh jeez, what'd I do this time?  I'm sorry that I like my candidate, I guess?

You know, this whole time, I've been talking about the big policy ideas and trying to talk as little as possible about the man himself just to avoid that sort of erroneous stereotyping.  These are powerful, nation-changing policy changes and lives hang in the balance.  But if you want to talk about how he's a socialist with wacky hair (and did you know he had a heart problem?  I haven't mentioned it in the last 5 minutes, thought I'd bring it up again) that's certainly your prerogative.  A tragically short-sighted prerogative.

Hydra009

Quote from: PopeyesPappy on March 07, 2020, 07:34:32 PM
You're fucked then. Conservatives and moderates together outnumber liberals 7 to 3.

A liberal presidential candidate is going to have to pull more than 65% of the moderate vote to beat the conservative opposition, and the further to the left a liberal gets the harder it is going to be to get those moderate votes.
Take a look at head-to-head polls (and/or generic ballots) and get back to me.

And predictably, your implication that Sanders' popularity extends only to super liberal (where do you guys keep getting this shared talking point?  I'd love to know) is dead wrong.

QuoteAt the same time, Sanders was formidable in his core groups. He won voters younger than 30 by a smashing 58-13% over Biden and those age 30 to 44 by 44-20%. “Very” liberal voters backed him by 47-18%, independents by 38-24%. On one of his signature issues, he won voters who support a government-run, single-payer health care system â€" 56% of all those who voted â€" by 43-22% over Biden.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/late-support-lifts-biden-sanders-base-takeaways-super/story?id=69381829

Independents voting for guy who was himself an Independent for a long while.  Go figure.

trdsf

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 07, 2020, 07:36:46 PM
Oh jeez, what'd I do this time?  I'm sorry that I like my candidate, I guess?
No, it's that you can't do it without being rude towards someone who has a perfectly legitimate difference of opinion.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

trdsf

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 07, 2020, 07:52:42 PM
Take a look at head-to-head polls (and/or generic ballots) and get back to me.
I have looked at the head-to-head polls.  Statistically there's no difference between Biden's lead over Trump, and Sanders' lead over Trump.  Either one is in a position to beat him, and neither one has a statistically significant advantage over the other.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Hydra009

Quote from: trdsf on March 07, 2020, 07:55:40 PM
No, it's that you can't do it without being rude towards someone who has a perfectly legitimate difference of opinion.
And here I was thinking that I was just voicing my perfectly legitimate difference of opinion, the same as you.  How come that is okay for you to do, and not for me?

Hydra009

Quote from: trdsf on March 07, 2020, 07:57:50 PM
I have looked at the head-to-head polls.  Statistically there's no difference between Biden's lead over Trump, and Sanders' lead over Trump.  Either one is in a position to beat him, and neither one has a statistically significant advantage over the other.
That's true.  Actually, I think Biden might have jumped up a little in recent days.  YoGov had Biden 50-43 with Sanders at 48-45.

GSOgymrat

If the priority is to defeat Trump then whether Biden or Sanders is the best candidate is a legitimate conversation. If the priority is to elect a president with progressive values then Sanders is the obvious choice. Frankly, I don't put much faith in polls when public opinion is changing so quickly. I don't know which one has the better chance of defeating Trump.

I've inquired with family, friends and coworkers and yet to talk to anyone supporting Sanders. This has really surprised me because I know some pretty liberal people but also these people are all over 30. Everyone says they will vote for Sanders if he is the Democratic candidate. My husband and his conservative friends absolutely hate Sanders but that is no surprise. I currently feel like I don't really understand where things are going.

trdsf

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 07, 2020, 08:02:08 PM
And here I was thinking that I was just voicing my perfectly legitimate difference of opinion, the same as you.  How come that is okay for you to do, and not for me?
No, you were misrepresenting my statements.  You will note that, unlike your statement "But if you want to talk about how he's a socialist with wacky hair (and did you know he had a heart problem?  I haven't mentioned it in the last 5 minutes, thought I'd bring it up again)", I never once said that Sanders can't be elected, or that he's too liberal to be elected.  I mentioned his health precisely once.  So no, you aren't voicing your opinion, you're attacking things I did not say and did not assert.  You haven't mentioned policies once.  So don't play this bullshit word game with me.

If you have anything of substance to say, I'll be interested to hear it.  So far, I have been disappointed, and have low expectations going forward.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Baruch

On polls ... worked for Hillary (they are echo chambers, like Twitter, but with more math to finagle the results with).

On one-dimensional analysis of voters (conservative vs liberal) ... obviously simple minded ... and based on polls.  Even if polls were 100% accurate, a one-dimensional analysis is how the political-wonks perform magic tricks for fools who pay real money for their analysis.  There are approximately 330 million different American opinions on anything.  How that can be successfully aggregated in a political campaign (yes, non-voters influence voters, so they vote indirectly) is part of the art, not science, of political campaigns.  Which are essentially popularity contests over people that we really don't know anything real about.  IQ people constantly get things wrong, that EQ people understand intuitively.  This is why women are right all the time, and men are wrong all the time ;-)
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Hydra009

#295
Quote from: trdsf on March 07, 2020, 08:50:50 PM
No, you were misrepresenting my statements.  You will note that, unlike your statement "But if you want to talk about how he's a socialist with wacky hair (and did you know he had a heart problem?  I haven't mentioned it in the last 5 minutes, thought I'd bring it up again)", I never once said that Sanders can't be elected, or that he's too liberal to be elected.  I mentioned his health precisely once.  So no, you aren't voicing your opinion, you're attacking things I did not say and did not assert.
That's true.  Well, partially true.  I wasn't complaining about you specifically, just the common centrist line of attack.  It does get a bit grating, though I'd imagine it's also grating to hear about it.  My bad.

Though this was after you accused me of being rude, so it's a bit strange to claim that as a cause of the initial offense.

QuoteYou haven't mentioned policies once.  So don't play this bullshit word game with me.
Oh?  I haven't mentioned medicare for all?  That's a pretty glaring false accusation.  I thought much better of you than that.

And since you brought it up, I've noticed that your case for Biden can mostly be summarized in three points:  1) he can beat Trump 2) Biden has more experience 3) an incrementalist approach will work

Is that a fair assessment?

Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but I think it is actually you who hasn't mentioned policy.  What exactly do you favor policywise with Biden over Sanders?

QuoteIf you have anything of substance to say, I'll be interested to hear it.  So far, I have been disappointed, and have low expectations going forward.
Yeah, I'd love a couple answers.  Let's say Biden gets the nomination.  How do you plan to garner enthusiasm for Biden?  How do you plan to reach out to non-Biden Democrats or to independents or conservatives?  (Heads up, calling us cultists typically doesn't go over well)  How do you plan to actually take down Trump - who as Shiranu pointed out, still has a steadfastly loyal following?  And finally, how does a Biden win actually translate into progressive victory?  That last one is something you could have possibly won me over with, had you taken that opportunity instead of telling me to watch my tone and telling me that Biden would be a better president than a guy I consider the worst president in human history as if I were so oblivious that I didn't already know that.

Baruch

#296
Appropriate dance for Sanders supporters if he gets to be POTUS ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXpnuyqloKU

Ricky Ricardo says, Si.

Here is the appropriate dance for Biden supporters if he gets to be POTUS ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3aeMrwxe88

The credit card lobby says, charge it!
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

GSOgymrat

Quote from: Baruch on March 07, 2020, 09:16:15 PM
Appropriate dance for Sanders supporters if he gets to be POTUS ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXpnuyqloKU

Ricky Ricardo says, Si.

My husband and his family immigrated from Cuba and Sander's comments regarding Fidel Castro were a HUGE fail. It came off as a "Hitler made the trains run on time" comment.

Shiranu

#298
QuoteMy husband and his family immigrated from Cuba and Sander's comments regarding Fidel Castro were a HUGE fail. It came off as a "Hitler made the trains run on time" comment.

I mean... it's not like he just randomly made that comment. He didn't just randomly praise Castro.

The hosts continued to pressure him on, "Are you SURE you're not a communist like Castro? Like... sure, sure? Cause we think you are a communist like Castro!" and he finally just said, "Okay, yes he did some things I actually agree with... that doesn't somehow mean that the other 99% of shit he did wasn't horrible."

Imagine ANY other candidate being held to that standard... of being called out for supporting capitalism even though there are horrible capitalists, supporting the military even though they commit war crimes, etc. ...it would be ridiculous. But they got the soundbyte they wanted and left out the context or the full point.

Imagine if someone continued to harass you about, "Are you SURE your not in favour of slave labour? After all the slave traders were just capitalists, and you like capitalism, so you probably like slave labour right? I mean capitalism is pretty bad, because slave labour happens you know?"... if you pointed out that capitalism does things right does that somehow mean you are also showing an unspoken support for slave labour?

"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

trdsf

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 07, 2020, 09:11:42 PM
And since you brought it up, I've noticed that your case for Biden can mostly be summarized in three points:  1) he can beat Trump 2) Biden has more experience 3) an incrementalist approach will work

Is that a fair assessment?
Yes, that's reasonably accurate.  Right now my priority is executive experience, to clean up the shitstorm domestically and internationally that Trump is going to leave behind.  I believe that is more important right now -- we are damaged goods internationally, and catastrophically divided nationally.

And it's not so much that I think an incremental approach is the best approach; it's that in this election it's the only realistic way forward.  We're only going to get a center-left Congress at best and flipping the Senate is iffy at best, so I will take the small steps we can realistically do.

If (big if, but not impossible) after the primaries are over, there are a bunch of centrists knocked off by progressives, that calculation will change radically, but that doesn't look like it's on the cards right now.  It's likely that our local progressive challenger Morgan Harper is going to be crushed by our local nearly-as-progressive incumbent Joyce Beatty in the primary -- and I'm lucky in that regard, especially since winning the Democratic primary is virtually a lock on winning the election in this district -- but I will vote for the challenger because that's the path forward, so far as building the progressive infrastructure goes.  I need local progressives to know that the votes are out there to be had, and local incumbents to know that there is support for moving leftwards.

And hey, if Biden (or Sanders) picks Congresswoman Beatty as his VP (which would be a brilliant choice, putting Ohio fully into play and providing ethnic and gender balance -- and she would absolutely eviscerate Ayatollah Pence in the VP debate), Harper is pre-positioned to take over the seat in the ensuing special election.

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 07, 2020, 09:11:42 PM
Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but I think it is actually you who hasn't mentioned policy.
No, you're not mistaken, I haven't mentioned policy.  For me, this isn't a policy election.  Outside of Williamson and Bloomberg and to some extent Gabbard, I would have been happy with any of the Democratic candidates getting the nomination.  There is one goal and one goal only, and that's getting that lying bigoted sack of shit out of our White House.  And the thing that causes me to tick Biden over Sanders is Executive Branch experience.  It is my view that that is what we're going to need most, to right the ship of state nationally and internationally.

What's going to change my perspective on the matter will be the facts on the ground.  If a bunch of centrists get knocked off by progressives throughout the primary season, then maybe we can have revolution rather than evolution and I will cheerily admit my miscalculation.

Until then, my view is that we have two good candidates, and one has the executive experience the other doesn't.  It really is as simple as that.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan