Please ignore Hong Kong ...

[Baruch]

but the Chinese have already blamed it on Trump.  They got that idea from the D-party ...

"Hong Kong Riots Reveal A Looming Crisis At The World's 6th Largest Bank" ... HSBC may be joining Deutschebank.

[fredd47]

 Be fascinating to see how the PRC spin it once the shooting stats and the bodies start piling up. Funny, most of those HK demonstrators would be too young to remember/be aware of the the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre

Was always amazed that the citizens of Hong Kong trusted a promise made by the PRC about autonomy.  (or anything else, apart from a promise to arrest dissidents) .  I guess it may have been Hobson's choice.. I suspect most could not simply leave, except to go to the PRC.

I remember the time of the hand over of Hong Kong. A big deal was made of the fact that Jackie Chan had chosen to remain in Hong Kong.

HK was my favourite city in the world from 1984 to 1990 . Then London, and still is.. Irrelevant  now because I no longer travel long haul anywhere; my body has betrayed me.

[Shiranu]

Funny, most of those HK demonstrators would be too young to remember/be aware of the the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre...

I don't know how it is in HK given their special status, but I know for the majority of China the government has gone to great length to make sure that if you ask someone on the street about it... they don't have a clue what you are talking about, or worse think it's a Western conspiracy that never happened.

Giving Hong Kong back to the Chinese was one of the biggest mistakes the West made, because it's massive economy was a huge boon (and still is) for the Chinese government. The people of HK should have been given a choice on what they wanted to do, and if they chose to stay independent or a part of the UK they should have been protected like Taiwan is.

Perhaps that would have lead to war with China, but one way or another that war is inevitable anyways... we should have fought it when we were the more powerful of the two sides. Now, it's just a matter of time before China beats us... if not with guns, by sheer economic and cultural power.

[Baruch]

Or Hong Kong a poison pill?

[Shiranu]

Or Hong Kong a poison pill?

It is, though Taiwan much more so. China has sworn to reclaim it by 2049 IIRC, and our defensive ties to it is much higher.

My guess is when China sends the military in to reclaim it, we will kowtow and let them get what they want. I don't see a politician with a spine taking power in the West any time soon.

Though with the current wave of populism... perhaps the pendulum will swing back and give us a dictator before then. The West has been due one for awhile now. Hopefully they are at least of the benevolent variety, and hopefully I am out of the West long before then... or at least in the mountains...

[Baruch]

It is, though Taiwan much more so. China has sworn to reclaim it by 2049 IIRC, and our defensive ties to it is much higher.

My guess is when China sends the military in to reclaim it, we will kowtow and let them get what they want. I don't see a politician with a spine taking power in the West any time soon.

Though with the current wave of populism... perhaps the pendulum will swing back and give us a dictator before then. The West has been due one for awhile now. Hopefully they are at least of the benevolent variety, and hopefully I am out of the West long before then... or at least in the mountains...

With support, China doesn't presently have the ability to totally conquer Taiwan (unless they go nuclear).  It is simply hard to get troops across the strait.  Others claim that Xi is willing to choose nuclear war, because he believes there will be one nuclear power in the 21st century, and it will be China.  if that is true, then there is no stopping nuclear war.  It all depends on the reasonableness of the belligerents.  If Hitler hadn't been greedy, there would have been no WW II, and Chamberlain would have been vindicated.

[Cavebear]

With support, China doesn't presently have the ability to totally conquer Taiwan (unless they go nuclear).  It is simply hard to get troops across the strait.  Others claim that Xi is willing to choose nuclear war, because he believes there will be one nuclear power in the 21st century, and it will be China.  if that is true, then there is no stopping nuclear war.  It all depends on the reasonableness of the belligerents.  If Hitler hadn't been greedy, there would have been no WW II, and Chamberlain would have been vindicated.

A favorite alternate history thought I sometimes contemplate is Hitler taking Continental Europe, and then keeping peace with Stalin, his dear friend, even making a claim they were both true Socialists.  Dictatorships can last a long time.  Adolph III might well be trading comfortable with Great Britain and the US in French wines, German cars, and Italian clothes and have economically defeated Communist Soviets.

I'm not suggesting that would be a good thing, just possible if he hadn't been both insane and greedy.  A lesser lunatic might have actually done better.

[josephpalazzo]

It's sad to hear that Beijing is sending troops to quell the protest in Hong Kong. I was there in 2008. It's not only a beautiful city but one of few (Barcelona and Florence are the other two) on my list I wouldn't mind living there. But now forget it, I wouldn't live there no more than I would have wanted to live in Nazi Germany in the 1930's. It's just a question of when Beijing will crush this fragile democracy, which up to now was a glimmer of hope that perhaps mainland China would have its Jeffersonian moment one day. Ain't going to happen. Xi wants to prove he deserves to be lifetime president and he will do it Tienanmen style.

[Sal1981]

I look at China's gov dealing with Hong Kong riots as testing the waters for how they can win minds and hearts in rest of the world. I mean, even with the aggressive censorship in China, you can't really stop the flow of information coming in and out of the country - people will know one way or another. They will obviously try and win an information war with Russian style trolling and disinformation and just old fashioned propaganda.

It's easy to say you should submit to the authority of the government, to actually get people to do that convincingly is an else thing entirely.

I actually hope they will cave to the demands of the rioters and change the law about extraditing people to China. That alone would be a big win for democracy in China. The alternatives are terrible.

[aileron]

Giving Hong Kong back to the Chinese...

The UK didn't "give" it back. The UK lease expired. Seriously, they leased Hong Kong for 99 years and the lease was up.

[Unbeliever]

And of course the people who actually lived in Hong Kong in those days had no say at all in the matter.

[josephpalazzo]

It's easy to say you should submit to the authority of the government, to actually get people to do that convincingly is an else thing entirely.

Big brother is already watching.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/02/china-surveillance/552203/

[Baruch]

It's sad to hear that Beijing is sending troops to quell the protest in Hong Kong. I was there in 2008. It's not only a beautiful city but one of few (Barcelona and Florence are the other two) on my list I wouldn't mind living there. But now forget it, I wouldn't live there no more than I would have wanted to live in Nazi Germany in the 1930's. It's just a question of when Beijing will crush this fragile democracy, which up to now was a glimmer of hope that perhaps mainland China would have its Jeffersonian moment one day. Ain't going to happen. Xi wants to prove he deserves to be lifetime president and he will do it Tienanmen style.

Xi declared himself "Chairman for Life" aka the Emperor.  Not heard since Mao.  So yes, the inevitable conflict over the Opium Wars between GB an China in the 1840s continue.  Ultimately Xi will have to revert to total dictatorship and continuous destruction of any progressive movements, same as Mao during the Cultural Revolution.  And that, not US intervention, will destroy the Chinese economic miracle.  Red Guards and running dogs of Capitalism don't mix.  The Jeffersonian Moment in China is what neo-Liberalism, the opening to China starting with Nixon, was all about.

[josephpalazzo]

I must give credit to Trump for his tweet, alerting the world that Xi has sent troops to the borders of Hong Kong. He's telegraphing to Xi that the world is watching. Hopefully it will deter the Chinese from firing and killing innocent people. Of course that remains to be seen. 

[Baruch]

I look at China's gov dealing with Hong Kong riots as testing the waters for how they can win minds and hearts in rest of the world. I mean, even with the aggressive censorship in China, you can't really stop the flow of information coming in and out of the country - people will know one way or another. They will obviously try and win an information war with Russian style trolling and disinformation and just old fashioned propaganda.

It's easy to say you should submit to the authority of the government, to actually get people to do that convincingly is an else thing entirely.

I actually hope they will cave to the demands of the rioters and change the law about extraditing people to China. That alone would be a big win for democracy in China. The alternatives are terrible.

4000 years of Chinese authoritarianism, doesn't bode well.  I would be surprised if China were ready for liberalism.  Like Japan 100 years ago, they like Western economics but not Western culture.