So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm

Started by Minimalist, December 13, 2018, 07:21:51 PM

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Mr.Obvious

Quote from: Baruch on October 21, 2019, 06:25:29 PM
Harbor masters in Calais and Dover say ... nothing to worry about.  But they are all secret agents of Putin, right?

As I understand it, there will be no immediate change in trade Nov 1 at all.  Only a few electronic changes that commercial/government units can easily handle (and that grandmothers can't comprehend).  No individual persons crossing either way will be effected who have legitimate reasons to travel.  Except no more Schengen BS.

There will be revised free trade arrangements, between GB and EU, over the next 2 years.  Those arrangements are subject to change over time anyway, because EU is a moving object, not static.  Are you expecting GB to embargo EU goods in either direction?  That would be an act of war.  Is there an undeclared war (see US vs Japan in 1941) between EU and GB?

That's not the case in case of no-deal. If Boris get ls it through Parliament, I'm not worried. Prices will still go up, but antwer has a major storage capacity so on our end checks will be less of a bother.
In case of no-deal, however, many companies in the Harbour simply aren't allowed to trade with the UK. And even if the application process is sped up in case of no-deal, it's stil going to inflate prices.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Baruch

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 22, 2019, 01:14:05 AM
That's not the case in case of no-deal. If Boris get ls it through Parliament, I'm not worried. Prices will still go up, but antwer has a major storage capacity so on our end checks will be less of a bother.
In case of no-deal, however, many companies in the Harbour simply aren't allowed to trade with the UK. And even if the application process is sped up in case of no-deal, it's stil going to inflate prices.

A zero-impact political action ... is mythical.  Either it increases prices, or decreases them.  Usually with any government action, prices increase (except for tariff reductions).  Prices decrease only if there is a productivity increase in the private sector, and the private sector in competitive mode chooses to pass the savings along to the consumers.  Unless there is compensating political action to increase paperwork/regulation ;-)  Per entropy, generally prices increase ... it is the cost of being alive.  Purchases drive prices upward.  The alternative is recession.

So the "meaningful vote" will definitely not happen.  They are grinding thru the "civil agreement" today thru whenever.  And that civil agreement will have the force of law (but not of treaty).  Meanwhile Parliament is reviewing what a Speaker will or will not be allowed to do in the future, after Bercow violated a number of "traditions" aka more of the GB constitution will get written down.  Currently the committee is arguing over whether or not the changes should be written or considered revised "tradition".

In the American view, the attempt by the Republic of Ireland to grab Northern Ireland is an act of war.  And the attempt by the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments (which somehow don't represent their publics ... SNP has very little support in Scotland, Plaid Cymru has little support in Wales) ... are acting like rebels.  In our "tradition" both would be dealt with violently ;-( and with collusion by EU with domestic anti-Brexit parties and with separatist movements, would mean war between GB and the EU.

So to an American mind, rising prices are the least of your problems ;-((

Schedule ... civil agreement to be narrowly approved by Commons late Thursday.  Same approved by Lords late Friday.  Thus 4 business days next week open, with Brexit Withdrawl (not Brexit Free Trade) done by Nov 1 aka Friday of next week.  Parliament threatens to kill the civil agreement with amendments (for example, demeaning new referendum or extending tentative delay past Jan 31 2020 to May 5 2022 etc) ... and Johnson threatens to withdraw the civil agreement if necessary to effectively prevent that.  Technically, the deal is a treaty, and thus can't be micromanaged by Parliament (because EU input required).  In which case .. no-deal Brexit at either EU or GB initiative next week.  Right now EU is in a holding pattern, waiting to see if their collusion with anti-Brexit bears fruit.  Macron says no more delay, Merkel says more delay.
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Don't do that.

Baruch

First time any Brexit deal vote got past first hurdle, since initial rejection of the PM May deal on 15 Jan 2019!  Not a done deal mind you, Parliament loves to slice the salami infinitely thin!  But a PM Johnson accomplishment, that PM May couldn't do.  So the civil legislation is paused, and Parliament moves on to eviscerating the Queen Speech bill.  And the EU gets to decide between Macron and Merkel.  And if Merkel, how much further delay will be offered.  Meanwhile the clock goes tick, tick, tick.  Unless the civil legislation fully get thru by EOD 31 Oct 2019 ... current law says ... no-deal Brexit (in the event that EU says no delay, or Parliament rejects the delay offer (say if EU only offered one day delay)).
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Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
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Mr.Obvious

Why do they want to alter the timetable? Spite?
I mean, it's pretty much May's deal. Just worse for the UK in a Few ways. They should pretty much know it by now.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Baruch

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 23, 2019, 11:32:36 AM
Why do they want to alter the timetable? Spite?
I mean, it's pretty much May's deal. Just worse for the UK in a Few ways. They should pretty much know it by now.

All of your European political parties are based on ideology.  With ideology, the facts don't matter.  We are seeing that more and more here with the Democrats ... they have nothing organic to propose, so they pull ideas (Green Deal) out of their asses which is to say out of European political party manifestos.  Not spite ... MPs are thick as thieves, like lawyers after the trial.

Ha ... little bird says, Franco/German emergency.  They can't get a decision on King Bercow's delay, for a few more days (maybe Friday?).  There is a little shortage of sausages and brie they have to deal with first.
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Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
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Don't do that.

Mr.Obvious

Quote from: Baruch on October 23, 2019, 11:57:58 AM
All of your European political parties are based on ideology.  With ideology, the facts don't matter.  We are seeing that more and more here with the Democrats ... they have nothing organic to propose, so they pull ideas (Green Deal) out of their asses which is to say out of European political party manifestos.  Not spite ... MPs are thick as thieves, like lawyers after the trial.

Ha ... little bird says, Franco/German emergency.  They can't get a decision on King Bercow's delay, for a few more days (maybe Friday?).  There is a little shortage of sausages and brie they have to deal with first.

Brie and sausage are serious business.
As long as we don't cause a potato famine, I'm fine though
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Unbeliever

How long after Brexit will Putin initiate another exit of a European nation from the Union? Which nation is next? I suspect Putin wants the European Union and NATO to fall apart, so he can have free reign to form a new Soviet Union. Then perhaps he'll ally with China, with whom Russia has a very long common border, to take whatever is left of the European nations. And America, which is being destroyed from within by Putin's minions in America's political arena.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Baruch

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 23, 2019, 12:24:13 PM
Brie and sausage are serious business.
As long as we don't cause a potato famine, I'm fine though

The potato famine was an act of nature.  But it was made worse by the British Corn Laws aka guided-economy.  Solidarity with the Republic Irish, that the EU referendum screwed?  Being part Irish, that trick, deserves a nuclear mushroom over Berlin and Paris.  Too bad WW II didn't fully exterminate Europe??  Or should the US have joined with the Soviet Union in the Warsaw Pact to oppose the cuck W Europeans?
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

Quote from: Unbeliever on October 23, 2019, 01:21:01 PM
How long after Brexit will Putin initiate another exit of a European nation from the Union? Which nation is next? I suspect Putin wants the European Union and NATO to fall apart, so he can have free reign to form a new Soviet Union. Then perhaps he'll ally with China, with whom Russia has a very long common border, to take whatever is left of the European nations. And America, which is being destroyed from within by Putin's minions in America's political arena.

I would vote for Putin if on the ballot.  He is an alpha male who hates gays.  I don't hate gays, but I would sell tickets to that show-and-tell (the Jewish thing) ;-)  Really, just a much bigger and diverse version of Rue Paul's show ... think of the advertising opportunities.

He is allied with China now, Jesus-farts.  Russia is China's Russian wolf hound.  Democrats are tools of China (California depends on it).

All nations are destroyed from within by the Left.  Last time I checked that was the slave-welfare-loving Democrats.  Log-Cabin Republicans show that being gay isn't Left or Right.  Your voting pen isn't determined by how your relate to another person's gonads.

We need a "acts like Jesus" show to match up with all the Elvis impersonators.  Would you compete?
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Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
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Don't do that.

trdsf

I will give credit where credit is due: I genuinely did not think BoJo could get a new agreement of any sort before the deadline, although the way he's handled matters, it's pretty clear he doesn't give a shit whether they exit with a deal or not.  I'm not entirely convinced he even actually gives a shit about Brexit at all, except as a means to getting the keys to No 10.

I mean, if he actually cared about both his plan and an orderly Brexit, he'd give a decent chance for MPs to actually read the bill that implements the exit so that they could hold a vote on it.  There's nothing magical about 31 October; if he'd belt up and let things take their course, they could be out by 11/11 no doubt.  He already got a majority for his deal, which is a lot more than May could manage; he should be willing to dot the i's and cross the t's.

Instead he's determined to cross the i's.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Baruch

Not just 10/31 deadline ... but avoiding further amendments that want to make the current deal, a poison pill.  Parliament now has to wait on Brussels again.  It was Brussels that chose 10/31, not Martians or Tories.  And if Brussels doesn't change that date, it is still possible for Parliament opposition to force a no-deal Brexit.  The Letwin law is now being questioned as illegitimate.  Eight more days of shadow boxing to go.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Mr.Obvious

Quote from: Baruch on October 23, 2019, 04:32:21 PM
The potato famine was an act of nature.  But it was made worse by the British Corn Laws aka guided-economy.  Solidarity with the Republic Irish, that the EU referendum screwed?  Being part Irish, that trick, deserves a nuclear mushroom over Berlin and Paris.  Too bad WW II didn't fully exterminate Europe??  Or should the US have joined with the Soviet Union in the Warsaw Pact to oppose the cuck W Europeans?

You'd have a lot less to bitch about for sure, not sure what you'd do with all that free time.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Baruch

It is like a sport.  Choose a favorite team, hate the opposing team.  Ignore all self-goals by the favorite team.  Condemn all Ref decisions against your team (aka EU).  So what is wrong with that?  GB is just a bunch of football hooligans anyway.

On the other hand, the Remainers have made a lot of goals with marginal field positions.  Can we praise "good plays" even by the opposing team?  I am starting to even empathize with Corbyn.  My mother never allowed praising the opponent (Denver Broncos vs opponents).

I am more or less ignoring American politics.  Like a bad episode of the Sopranos.  If the EU/GB gobshites kick the Brexit can into 2020 ... I might turn the channel on them too.  Starting to warm to Australian politics.
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Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
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Don't do that.

Baruch

So where are we?  The partly accepted civil agreement is in limbo.

1. EU says GB can have an extension past 10/31, but won’t say “how long” (that unexpected result helps the Opposition).
2. Government says they won’t re-table the civil agreement unless EU says “how long”, but has proposed a Dec 12 GE to the Opposition.
3. Opposition won’t agree to re-table unless Government prohibits any “no-deal” or Government has an EU extension date.
4. Government says they won’t prohibit “no-deal”.  And they cannot create an EU extension date without the EU.

EU and Government disagree.  Government and Opposition disagree.  EU and Opposition secretly agree to stop Brexit (treason).  The EU only accepts a GB government that is 100% in alignment with the EU (namely no Brexit at all).

EU civil agreement with the Government was a false hope.  The same civil agreement between the Government and Opposition was a false hope.

The EU is opposed to any internal or external opposition to the dictat of its un-elected leadership.

The Opposition is opposed to anything the Tory Government proposes.  It wants to be the Government and EU agrees with that.

Any early election will result in the defeat of the Opposition and its EU backers, so it must be put off indefinitely using any excuse.

Meanwhile the clock is still clicking to 10/31.  the Government POV is EU gives a new deadline, or Opposition agrees to an election.  Otherwise the civil agreement will not be re-tabled the Government.  So a three way Mexican standoff, where two parties are in secret agreement against the other party.  If you are in the EU, then any national government is the bitch of the un-elected EU leadership, which is why there is Brexit in the first place.  Seig Heil!
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Táadoo ánít’iní.
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Baruch

If EU says no to Brexit ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWhFZJmm0_Q

Basically the UK is too weak to defend against a united EU, after 12 months of fighting.
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Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
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What are you doing?
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Don't do that.