So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm

[Baruch]

Lol. You're just a Bucket of sunshine and flowers, lately, ain't ya?

We know in the US (traditional Americans anyway) that anything European is toxic, both to Europe and the rest of the world.  But see just above for a brief summary as to how this defeat is PM May's greatest success so far.

[trdsf]

Yeah you're right, she'll probably stay pm.

I'd concider resigning, Tbh. Buy i don't think she will.

I don't think she'll stand down either; she still commands a parliamentary majority, however slim, and there's no way Labour can cobble together a majority or even a theoretically stable minority government.

What's going to be the interesting part of the vote will be the number of defections and abstentions -- if any and on which side.  Both May and Corbyn have serious back-bench problems and the vote may give some insight into whose are worse.

[trdsf]

Yup, she survived. And the DUP immediately pointed out that if their bloc had voted differently, she wouldn't have. This suggests to me that the DUP plans to hold this over her head from this day forward.  If that's not a Unionist wet dream, having Westminster under their continual threat of blackmail... good luck, Great Britain. You're going to need it.

[Baruch]

So Corbyn played his part, setting up a guarantee that PM May can't be challenged again for 12 months.  The law requires a new General Election in 5 years, but that means she is good until Summer 2021, more than 12 months away.

Meanwhile the EU will give Britain more time to come to its senses, but won't offer a better deal.  They expect a new referendum, and guarantees that the result will go their way, just like in the vote in Ireland to join the Euro in 2002, after previously being an EU member.

The key is that the Republic of Ireland will demand that N Ireland be turned over to them, to prevent the N ireland border "backstop".  After that the EU can help Scotland and Wales split from England permanently.  Reversing centuries of integration.

[Mr.Obvious]

https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6

[Baruch]

Won't happen.  Already they are talking about totally flexible deadlines, that can put i off for a year or more.  Never underestimate the ability of a corrupt politician to limbo.

[Mr.Obvious]

Won't happen.  Already they are talking about totally flexible deadlines, that can put i off for a year or more.  Never underestimate the ability of a corrupt politician to limbo.

Flexible deadlines create new problems. How are they going to divide european parliament? Handle The budgets? Make THE budgets?

If you ask me; whatever party asks for an extension Should be expected to pay Some renumeration.

[trdsf]

As a side note to the ongoing circus, wow, has Jeremy Corbyn completely fumbled a golden opportunity.  He should have:

• Had Labour start preparing an alternative Brexit proposal as soon as it looked like May's agreement was in trouble, to be able to offer immediately upon defeat of the PM's plan. It would have given the image of someone ready to deal with the EU and the crisis at hand.
• Backed calls from the other parties for a referendum on whatever agreement does get the approval of Commons.
• Immediately moved for an extension of Article 50 to push back the exit date - and had that passed, it would have legitimized a no confidence vote since it would require Conservative and DUP defections and abstentions to pass.

Instead he seems determined to provide more sound and fury than actual leadership. Doesn't he want to be PM?  Or is he trying to dodge that until things settle down?

[Mr.Obvious]

I don't think anyone would want to be pm right now.
I can even imagine may having an arrested development moment.

"I've made a Huge mistake..."

hello darkness my old friend....

[trdsf]

Probably. Also, what are the alternatives for the Conservatives - Johnson? Gove? Yikes.

[Baruch]

Thatcher's corpse would do a better job, unfortunately.

[Halkenburg]

Am I the only one who thinks that Brexit will end up being cancelled at the last moment?

No?

Anyone?

Oh well. :-P

[Baruch]

Am I the only one who thinks that Brexit will end up being cancelled at the last moment?

No?

Anyone?

Oh well. :-P

I have already seen, in British media, the 11-d chess, of how this could end up, including indefinite delay or cancellation.  PM Cameron was a git.  He should have never allowed the referendum on Scotland or Brexit.  Churchill was unique, mostly GB politicians are abysmal.  Most of the time, Churchill was abysmal.

I do like Boris Johnson however.  Classicist.  Jacob Rees-Mogg support Boris Johnson apparently.

My guess is that they will declare a national emergency, to a reverse Trump (tear down that wall).  Basically declare all EU to the British citizens.  That is the point of Schengen, right?

[trdsf]

Am I the only one who thinks that Brexit will end up being cancelled at the last moment?

No?

Anyone?

Oh well. :-P

I think it's not impossible.  I'll be shocked if they do the hard Brexit in two months; I expect they'll extend Article 50, fail to come up with anything that remotely resembles what the UK was promised by the Leave campaigns, cobble something together that no one likes and put it up to a second referendum.  What happens then, I don't know.  I wouldn't have predicted Leave squeezing out a narrow victory, but elections in '16 were weird everywhere.

[Hydra009]

Am I the only one who thinks that Brexit will end up being cancelled at the last moment?

No?

Anyone?

Oh well. :-P

Ideally, yes.  But the cynic in me is saying there's going to be a no deal brexit with all sorts of associated chaos.