Author Topic: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm  (Read 26813 times)

Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #900 on: October 28, 2019, 01:18:57 PM »
Looks like ... the GB/EU/Brexit Reality Show has been renewed for more episodes.  Thru Jan 31, 2020.   A few more trivial legislation to do in GB and EU to make this official, over the next 3 days.  Dotted "i"s and Spotted Dicks.  Now the political parties can continue their sausage making.

The extension is a flex-tension.  If Parliament passes the existing revised treaty before Jan 31, 2020 ... then the EU-free-trade negotiations start at that point.  Any attempt by Johnson or the Opposition, to amend the existing reside treaty, puts everything back up in the air and Jan 31, 2020 becomes the new hard-brexit date.  The existing revised treaty itself has a hard-brexit date on its portion, sometime out in July 2020.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2019, 03:52:41 PM by Baruch »
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #901 on: October 30, 2019, 01:17:27 PM »
"Boris Johnson Gets His Early Election by Abandoning Actual Brexit" ... Boris is a BRINO, has compromised with Labor to exclude no-deal Brexit being triggered (once final approval of the current "deal" is done, after the GE, then it is moot (aside from the no-deal Brexit trigger next July, on the free-trade with EU negotiations)).  Boris is Corbyn's butt-budy.  Who knew?

By end of tomorrow, final agreement on the GE on 12/12 ... should be final in House of Lords.  So technically in limbo for a few more days.

More notably, attempts to amend election rules, to allow EU citizens (former Brits living X years outside of GB) to vote in the GE, or to allow 16-17 year olds to vote in the GE, were defeated.

Then we enter the pre-election period Nov1 - Dec 12.  Basically the British reality TV shit-show has entered a new season.  I plan on changing the channel Jan 1 ... because this show has degraded itself compared to the new-exciting first season Jan 1 2019 thru Jun 1 2019.  Second season was basically good cop/bad cop.

PS ... Grieve et al are trying to get the EU to overturn the vote of Parliament, regarding votes for EU citizens who are former GB citizens (and were not included in the original Brexit vote in 2016).
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 02:00:48 PM by Baruch »
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Offline Mr.Obvious

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Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #902 on: October 30, 2019, 07:50:12 PM »
Looks like ... the GB/EU/Brexit Reality Show has been renewed for more episodes.  Thru Jan 31, 2020.   A few more trivial legislation to do in GB and EU to make this official, over the next 3 days.  Dotted "i"s and Spotted Dicks.  Now the political parties can continue their sausage making.

The extension is a flex-tension.  If Parliament passes the existing revised treaty before Jan 31, 2020 ... then the EU-free-trade negotiations start at that point.  Any attempt by Johnson or the Opposition, to amend the existing reside treaty, puts everything back up in the air and Jan 31, 2020 becomes the new hard-brexit date.  The existing revised treaty itself has a hard-brexit date on its portion, sometime out in July 2020.

"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #903 on: October 31, 2019, 07:27:16 AM »
Good thing Parliament has intermissions, or I wouldn't be able to go for more popcorn and soda ;-)

MP Corbyn did show some sense eventually, hence the about face on early GE.  He is a Unionist (no devolution for Scotland any time soon) and a Euro-skeptic (though for different reasons than the Tories).  He wants things more Left than the EU, and can't attempt that while in the EU.  He was ultimately unwilling to make a deal with SNP.  And LibDem doesn't want him as PM.

Existing law allows Scotland to have another devolution referendum some day, but only if the popular will is pushing for it, not as a election coalition deal.  Don't know his opinion on N Ireland or Wales.  He was a supporter of the IRA in the past.  The IRA has proposed resuming warfare if there is any Brexit that impacts N Ireland in any fashion (as the Boris Deal does).

So things should be relatively quiet for 6 weeks ;-)
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #904 on: October 31, 2019, 07:39:59 PM »
House of Lords approved the election arrangement.  The civil agreement on Brexit ala Boris will be finalized between 12/12 and 1/31.  Brexit party is weakening ... as Boris planned, once he managed a revised BRINO and a GE.  Corbyn will be running on new Brexit referendum (not Scottish one).  Boris will run on his BRINO.  If Corbyn was elected, he will have his own BRINO, then have a new Brexit referendum, where he will run for Remain, not his own BRINO.  Bercow retired, instead of going Zombie as he threatened ;-(

The Brexit Party is fading, probably not managing crossing the "first to post" system to get even one MP (15% is practically required to earn your first MP).  The Brexit Party can't run in coordination with the Tories.  So the Tories may get the most MPs, but not an outright majority (repeat of 2017).  This makes it marginally possible for Corbyn to form a coalition government.  Labor is much less likely to gain total MPs.  It is possible but unlikely that Boris will try to improve his Brexit, or go for a no-deal Brexit on 1/31 ... if he wins an outright majority in Parliament.

If Boris has to form his own minority government, he has a problem, since the DUP has been burned.  Who can he ally with?

Once the civil agreement is done, then the New Free Trade with EU negotiation starts.  That as a new no-deal limit 12/31/20 ... not July.

PS - 10 of 21 exiled Tory MPs were readmitted.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2019, 08:35:36 PM by Baruch »
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #905 on: November 01, 2019, 03:39:07 AM »
"Corbyn Plots A Marxist Revolution - Could He Win The Election By Accident?" ... so if Brexit pros are split, if Boris doesn't get an outright majority, and doesn't have a minority government partner ... then the conflict over who gets to try to form a coalition government falls on Corbyn (head of Labor and Opposition), though Jo Swinson (head of Lib Dem) would dispute that.  Corbyn has to accept some Brexit that allows freedom to re-nationalize most of the UK economy, which isn't currently allowed in EU rules.  If a Labor-coalition government, after a re-do of the referendum, ends up supporting Remain, then Corbyn can't this.
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Offline Mr.Obvious

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Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #906 on: November 01, 2019, 04:28:07 AM »
If Corbyn is hoping to get a significant amount of votes, he's going to have to campaign hard.
His wishy-washy stance the last few months will be a major obstacle for the labour party, I think.
Leavers, on the other hand, will flock mostly to BoJo and the brexit-party who will be able to work together fluently, at least on this matter.
Remain voters will be more dispersed, I think, amongst the remaining parties.
Divide and conquer.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #907 on: November 01, 2019, 05:34:52 AM »
If Corbyn is hoping to get a significant amount of votes, he's going to have to campaign hard.
His wishy-washy stance the last few months will be a major obstacle for the labour party, I think.
Leavers, on the other hand, will flock mostly to BoJo and the brexit-party who will be able to work together fluently, at least on this matter.
Remain voters will be more dispersed, I think, amongst the remaining parties.
Divide and conquer.

Perhaps.  Corbyn et al fought a good fight .. drunks with knives in the pub.  I have to expect the final concession was something passed under the table (Labor agreement to early election).  Corbyn could have held Tories hostage another 2 years.
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Offline SGOS

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #908 on: November 02, 2019, 03:55:44 AM »
Brexit will not happen.  I have no particular knowledge about what it is or why it won't happen.  It just seems like Brexit is a way for the Great Britain to fuck around.

Offline Mr.Obvious

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Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #909 on: November 02, 2019, 07:25:01 AM »
Brexit will not happen.  I have no particular knowledge about what it is or why it won't happen.  It just seems like Brexit is a way for the Great Britain to fuck around.

Maybe it's all well planned keyfabe. In order to sell brexit merchandise.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
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Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Offline SGOS

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #910 on: November 02, 2019, 07:43:17 AM »
Like Boris and Theresa action figures.

Offline Mr.Obvious

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Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #911 on: November 02, 2019, 10:29:05 AM »
Like Boris and Theresa action figures.

Or a bercow plus hie, push his tummy and he says one of five sentences 'ordah', 'ordaaaaahhhhh', 'I don' t give a flying flamingo', 'my right and honorable friend' and 'order!'
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #912 on: November 02, 2019, 06:58:14 PM »
Brexit will not happen.  I have no particular knowledge about what it is or why it won't happen.  It just seems like Brexit is a way for the Great Britain to fuck around.

Correct,  The current agreement is BRINO.  Remain isn't Brexit either.  A no-deal Brexit is highly unlikely.  It is a necessary empty threat to keep the Remainers and BRINOs in-line.
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #913 on: November 03, 2019, 10:16:52 AM »
In election position, Tories reject no-deal as future tactic, and reject pact with Brexit Party.  Mr Farage decides not to run for an MP seat, since he sees himself as divisive, and he doesn't want, best case, to be PM.  Basically the Tories have shown themselves like Labor .. they are party first, country second.


PS ... MP Dominic Grieve ... who was canned by the Tories, but is still a officer of the government, now wants to claim that PM Boris Johnson is a tool of Putin, because all Leave supporters of any type, are Russian agents.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 06:02:01 PM by Baruch »
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Offline Baruch

Re: So It Seems That Brexit Has Become a Category 5 Shitstorm
« Reply #914 on: November 06, 2019, 10:11:23 AM »
On to the 12/12 election.  All parties are back to status quo pre 2016 politics.  All the Brexit stuff was just posturing.  The Tories are being $&463 Tories, the Laborites are being ^*%&$& Laborites.  OF no interest to me, these traditional tribalisms and classisms.
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