Hurricane Florence prompts evacuation of more than a million people

[Cavebear]

Thanks

Best track site I can find...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/12/hurricane-florences-path-track-storm-here.html

[SGOS]

Best track site I can find...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/12/hurricane-florences-path-track-storm-here.html

Thanks again.  That's what I was looking for.

[Cavebear]

Thanks again.  That's what I was looking for.

Glad to help.  Are you in the path?  Or friends/family?  I'm in southern MD.  Looks like it will hook around us thankfully.  We have already had so much rain in August, I think I could have grown rice in the lawn.  The mushrooms and slugs are drowning!  I have frogs living in the grass!

[SGOS]

Glad to help.  Are you in the path?  Or friends/family?  I'm in southern MD.  Looks like it will hook around us thankfully.  We have already had so much rain in August, I think I could have grown rice in the lawn.  The mushrooms and slugs are drowning!  I have frogs living in the grass!

The path looks like it will be 150 miles west of me on Monday.  It will then swing to the northeast.  The result would be that I will be 150 miles from the center as it circles around me from Sunday night to perhaps Tuesday or beyond.  I expect to get mostly a lot of rain, but I'm well above flood danger on a hogback.  My driveway could be damaged as it crosses an intermittent wash at the bottom of the hill.  This happened during record rains two or three years ago, even though there is a small culvert under the drive.  Road closures and power are my biggest concern.  My bathtub is full, and I have a 20 gallon tub of potable water on my porch.  It's rained about a quarter of an inch in the last 15 hours, but I'm right in line with one of those red squall lines heading my way, which should be here tonight, bringing much heavier rains.

My interest in following the storm is mostly just interest.  I've had numerous power outages in the 8 years I've been here, one lasting a week.  I manage these fine.  Well, not fine, but it's what I expected and I don't complain.  I like living in rural seclusion.

[Cavebear]

The path looks like it will be 150 miles west of me on Monday.  It will then swing to the northeast.  The result would be that I will be 150 miles from the center as it circles around me from Sunday night to perhaps Tuesday or beyond.  I expect to get mostly a lot of rain, but I'm well above flood danger on a hogback.  My driveway could be damaged as it crosses an intermittent wash at the bottom of the hill.  This happened during record rains two or three years ago, even though there is a small culvert under the drive.  Road closures and power are my biggest concern.  My bathtub is full, and I have a 20 gallon tub of potable water on my porch.  It's rained about a quarter of an inch in the last 15 hours, but I'm right in line with one of those red squall lines heading my way, which should be here tonight, bringing much heavier rains.

My interest in following the storm is mostly just interest.  I've had numerous power outages in the 8 years I've been here, one lasting a week.  I manage these fine.  Well, not fine, but it's what I expected and I don't complain.  I like living in rural seclusion.

I could manage the rain well enough.  One nice thing about a slightly sloped yard is the at rainfall keeps moving further.  And we have buried electrical cables here.  But the house is 100% electric, so when it DOES go off, I'm out of luck.  Oh I can cook on the charcoal grill on the deck, but I'm a wimp when I lose A/C.  And I once spent 6 weeks in a sleeping bag in Summer as a teen.

Come to think of it, if I lost power for days, I think I WOULD set up my tent and a campfire ring.  At least outside the air moves.  A powerless house is dead and stuffy.

[SGOS]

I could manage the rain well enough.  One nice thing about a slightly sloped yard is the at rainfall keeps moving further.  And we have buried electrical cables here.  But the house is 100% electric, so when it DOES go off, I'm out of luck.  Oh I can cook on the charcoal grill on the deck, but I'm a wimp when I lose A/C.  And I once spent 6 weeks in a sleeping bag in Summer as a teen.

Come to think of it, if I lost power for days, I think I WOULD set up my tent and a campfire ring.  At least outside the air moves.  A powerless house is dead and stuffy.

I slept on the porch during that week long outage.  It was fun.  I have a tent, but the porch is even more airy.  I had to throw out some of the stuff in the freezer.

[Cavebear]

I slept on the porch during that week long outage.  It was fun.  I have a tent, but the porch is even more airy.  I had to throw out some of the stuff in the freezer.

Tents are good when it rains and you have no porch.  Though a garage might be better. 

[SGOS]

Yes, we do. Alluvial deposits with plant matter in them can be dated. If a flood deposit stops well away from the water course it would follow that the event was "epic". I've read of deposits from floods there were space ~700 years apart. Scientists use "1000 year flood" to indicate a truly catastrophic flood.  flood,

Yeah, I misspoke.  I already knew that about geological evidence used to determine floodplains, even to draw maps for 100 year floodplains.  I had just never heard of 1000 year floods, but I can see why geologists would take an interest in them.

I used to do sanitary reviews for a surveying outfit.  The State of Montana would not allow subdivisions in 100 year floodplains, and I always wondered about catastrophic floods.  I guess they had to draw the line somewhere.  The State had official 100 year floodplain maps, some drawn from surveys based on a point of geological evidence.  I would have to consult flood plain maps as part of the job.  Usually, I could almost always tell a floodplain without the maps, but the maps were the final authority, and I would have to nix a project in an official floodplain.  Developers could contest a floodplain, but it required more than anyone I ever met to do more than what they were willing to take on, one being an official survey of the area in question.  I suppose they could contest a geological point of reference too, but I never ran into that situation.

One local guy owned a pasture of 150 acres or so that was in an official floodplain that he wanted to subdivide.  I never dealt with this project, but he used to show up at county planning board meetings, and protest not being able to subdivide.  Of course, he didn't want to spend the money to officially contest the floodplain.  He just wanted the county planners to tell him it was OK, which always fell on deaf ears, because the county didn't have that authority.  His complaint was that the land had never flooded while he lived there, which of course was like 40 years, but my understanding is that 40 years doesn't exactly mean never.  He was always quite a hot head, and not very convincing.  I'd seen his property next to the road.  It looked like a floodplain, but I would confess that I wouldn't attest to that one way or another.  Not that I had any say in the matter to begin with.  Out of pure curiosity, I consulted the floodplain maps I had in my possession, and he was in an official floodplain.

[SGOS]

Tents are good when it rains and you have no porch.  Though a garage might be better. 

I have that too, but I never thought about it.

[Cavebear]

I live across the street from a wetland.  The 2 yards across the street from me were always "Forbidden to Build"  But one day, a house started to arise (and a McMansion of all things).  The guy bought the land for nothing, and snuck in in a zoning easement with a friend on the County Board.  He did it by promising to protect 6 acres of wetlands behind (which means doing nothing, just as it was before). 

He added 6' of landfill on the spot of the house to clear regulations.  I hope the house sinks...

[SGOS]

I live across the street from a wetland.  The 2 yards across the street from me were always "Forbidden to Build"  But one day, a house started to arise (and a McMansion of all things).  The guy bought the land for nothing, and snuck in in a zoning easement with a friend on the County Board.  He did it by promising to protect 6 acres of wetlands behind (which means doing nothing, just as it was before). 

He added 6' of landfill on the spot of the house to clear regulations.  I hope the house sinks...

Yeah, I suspect that sort of thing goes on all the time, at all levels of government.

[Cavebear]

Yeah, I suspect that sort of thing goes on all the time, at all levels of government.

Yeah, but I didn't see it coming.  And I hate cozy manipulations like that.  The owner is personally OK, but he cheated...

[Baruch]

Yeah, but I didn't see it coming.  And I hate cozy manipulations like that.  The owner is personally OK, but he cheated...

Just like politicians/lobbyists/patrons.  Been going on since Athens.

[Shiranu]

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, they are getting hit by a hurricane that looks like what we expected Florence to look like.

Video embedded of a building being slammed by the wind...

https://hk.news.appledaily.com/breaking/realtime/article/20180916/58687997

[Cavebear]

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, they are getting hit by a hurricane that looks like what we expected Florence to look like.

Video embedded of a building being slammed by the wind...

https://hk.news.appledaily.com/breaking/realtime/article/20180916/58687997

While no specific hurricane, cyclone, or weather event can be directly attributed to climate change, the ongoing gradual increase is generally good evidence.  The ocean level is rising not because there is more water, but because the warmer water expands.  The warmer water increases the intensity of storms.  Increasing heat in the atmosphere generates more fluctuation in weather patterns.  It is not an accident that the hottest average temperatures have occurred this century.