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Ignore the facts, believe the story

Started by Hydra009, August 29, 2018, 03:34:12 PM

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Hydra009

There's a particular logical fallacy that I see people influenced by all the time but few people seem to recognize it or understand why it's a bad way of thinking.

It's called Misleading Vividness (aka the anecdote argument)

Here's how it works:  someone tells a dramatic and gripping story, usually about something horrible happening to someone.  The story is usually true.  The audience fallaciously assumes this is more common than it really is, so the audience take-away is that this is a real problem and something must to be done about it!  (for the children)

Politicians love stories.  Preachers love stories.  And the media especially loves stories.  Every week, they run a piece very similar to the one I'm going to give you now.

Here's my example.  This is completely fictional, just off the top of my head.

Fred was a kindly old man who regularly fed squirrels.  The squirrels would follow him around all the time, eating the nuts he throws on the grass.  One day, a particularly aggressive squirrel crawls on his hand and eats right from his hand.  It eats and eats, nibbling more and more roughly.  Then it bites him, drawing blood.  Fred tries to shake the squirrel off, but it holds on tight.  The other squirrels follow suit and Fred is overpowered in a swarm of squirrels frenzied by the taste of blood.  The next day, a horrified jogger discovers Fred's skeleton.  Think about that the next time you feed squirrels!

The problem with this story, even if it were true, is that this is not a common occurrence.  It's not even an uncommon occurrence.  It's rare af.  If you feed the squirrels, they're very, very, very unlikely to harm you.

But the cautionary tale about Fred is still somewhat convincing.  Why?  Because you can picture it happening.

Because it introduces that sliver of doubt that something bad might happen.  Because it likely has happened.  You weigh the possibility of nothing happening and something terrible happening a lot more equally than they should be weighed because all you have to go on are your own experiences and tales of other people's experiences.  And it's one of those tough arguments to defend against because to resist it you seemingly have to call Fred's widow a liar.

Now let me tell you about some teens who committed suicide because of a satanic rock album.  Or the shark attack that happened right near the beach you're planning on going to.  Or that teen who played video games 23 hours a day for weeks and died from a heart attack.  Or that guy who got licked by a few dogs and ended up having his legs and hands amputated.

Can you imagine?  You likely can and are.

Isn't the world so fraught with peril?  Aren't you scared?  Well, you shouldn't be.  Because you're on Scare Tactics.

Unbeliever

My amygdala isn't working overtime, so no, not scared. ;-)
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

aitm

This is a very common type of stories among the religious. Making up a story that is somewhat credible but only relates to one out of a billion and therefore suggests that it happens far more often if only you believed.
A humans desire to live is exceeded only by their willingness to die for another. Even god cannot equal this magnificent sacrifice. No god has the right to judge them.-first tenant of the Panotheust

Baruch

#3
Quote from: aitm on August 29, 2018, 07:15:50 PM
This is a very common type of stories among the religious. Making up a story that is somewhat credible but only relates to one out of a billion and therefore suggests that it happens far more often if only you believed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTTxywB7b_U

Y'all are just Egyptians worshipping false gods ;-)

The real event ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErOitC7OyHk
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Mike Cl

Well, Hydra, I don't know................I mean, yeah, it is probably not true.....................but, well, I mean, I've seen that story, and several like it, on TV, on the net, twitter, and well, lots of other places.  It could be true......................., I mean, squirrels are animals after all.  And I've seen it so many places and it does have a ring of truth in it.  And it does not hurt to be cautious and all.  I'm just going to play it safe and kick all the squirrels I see from now on.  That's getting kind of close--throw rocks instead I think. 
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?<br />Then he is not omnipotent,<br />Is he able but not willing?<br />Then whence cometh evil?<br />Is he neither able or willing?<br />Then why call him god?

Unbeliever

Ha! Kicking a squirrel is like trying to catch a hummingbird with your bare hands - they're just too fast! Either that, or they'll chew your leg off...
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Mike Cl

Quote from: Unbeliever on August 30, 2018, 01:41:31 PM
Ha! Kicking a squirrel is like trying to catch a hummingbird with your bare hands - they're just too fast! Either that, or they'll chew your leg off...
It's the latter I'm worried about.
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?<br />Then he is not omnipotent,<br />Is he able but not willing?<br />Then whence cometh evil?<br />Is he neither able or willing?<br />Then why call him god?

SGOS

Quote from: Mike Cl on August 30, 2018, 01:36:56 PM
Well, Hydra, I don't know................I mean, yeah, it is probably not true.....................but, well, I mean, I've seen that story, and several like it, on TV, on the net, twitter, and well, lots of other places.  It could be true......................., I mean, squirrels are animals after all.  And I've seen it so many places and it does have a ring of truth in it.  And it does not hurt to be cautious and all.  I'm just going to play it safe and kick all the squirrels I see from now on.  That's getting kind of close--throw rocks instead I think. 
I watched a neighbor's cat chase a squirrel.  A squirrel and cat are evenly matched in speed, it seems.  They tore around another neighbor's house and out of sight at full speed.  Then I heard the cat screaming.  I don't know if it was a fear scream or an attack scream, but it sounded real bad for one of them.

Baruch

Sharpest teeth I have encountered was from my mother's pet ferret.  Like a furry piraña.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Cavebear

Stories, true or not once, have a way of becoming generally true and common among Really Stupid People.  And they seem (to me) to be the generally religious sort.  Simple of mind, easily bewildered, likely to believe anything told to them by GODLY fable-spinners, fearful of death and the Hell that surely awaits them if they so much as sneeze in church, watchful for demonic neighbors, etc, etc, etc...
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Unbeliever

I bet most church-goers don't really believe, but they feel they must be seen to believe or be ostracized from their community.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Cavebear

Quote from: Unbeliever on September 08, 2018, 03:27:56 PM
I bet most church-goers don't really believe, but they feel they must be seen to believe or be ostracized from their community.

That might actually be the very thing that disturbs my nightmares.  That almost no one actually believes that crap and so few will admit it. 

"The emperor has no clothes", the child shouted...,
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

SGOS

Quote from: Unbeliever on September 08, 2018, 03:27:56 PM
I bet most church-goers don't really believe, but they feel they must be seen to believe or be ostracized from their community.
I've suspected the same thing, but that might be from my personal experience with religion.  I would add that being ostracized was minimal in my case.  I really did want to believe, and I could regurgitate the catechism, and make a good showing, but the big problem was that I couldn't believe.  I said I did, but that was more because I didn't want to disappoint.  Going with the flow just seemed right.  I questioned things, even to my pastor, but the answers were always lacking.  I found nothing definitive in them.  Going with the flow might be a fear of being ostracized, but I was never obstinate enough to warrant that.  It's a fine line between lying about my deeper ruminations and fudging, I suppose.  But I couldn't get over the hump.  I don't have faith in anything and that is the key.  I don't even have faith in science.  I believe much of that which has solid evidence, but some parts of quantum mechanics and theoretical physics, I'm not so sure about.  I have a feeling the big science guys are on the right track, but that's not faith.  At best, it's only the best bet.

SGOS

Quote from: Cavebear on September 08, 2018, 03:58:05 PM
That might actually be the very thing that disturbs my nightmares.  That almost no one actually believes that crap and so few will admit it. 

"The emperor has no clothes", the child shouted...,
When I was little, that story was either read to me in class or was one of the stories in our reader.  My first and lasting impression was that this story was about religion.  To me it was the perfect metaphor, even though at the time, I had never heard of a metaphor.  Just like the story, I thought religion was all about fooling ourselves.  Now, I might concede that the metaphor was about the power of peer pressure.  But it's the same thing.

trdsf

Hey, you never know about squirrels... I can personally vouch for this story, I well remember the local news coverage when it charged a Westerville police officer, who shot it three times.  It kept coming after the first two shots.  When a vet did a post-mortem on it, there was no trace of rabies or any other gross physical defect.  The final diagnosis was "That was just one mean squirrel."
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan