Origins of the Universe. (Creation versus science. Do they contradict?)

[Cavebear]

That's just because we haven't invented worm hole travel yet.  Hell, a bunch of aliens could show up any day now and we'd be in a real pickle.  Actually, a bigger problem than vast distances might be the almost infinite number of worlds that have to be explored before they find us.  So I'm still going to keep up my lawn and carry on until then.

Safety in hiding in plain sight also works... 

[Unbeliever]

In some ways I think sci-fi has done us a disservice, in that people now think travelling through the void will be a piece of cake once the right genius comes along, and any place we go out there will have habitable planets. I think neither is the case.

[SGOS]

In some ways I think sci-fi has done us a disservice, in that people now think travelling through the void will be a piece of cake once the right genius comes along, and any place we go out there will have habitable planets. I think neither is the case.

Yeah, you're probably right.  There are real safety issues with worm hole travel.

[Unbeliever]

I think it's been shown that wormholes don't exist, but I don't know if I can find the reference. Let me check.

[Unbeliever]

Ah, here it is:

Science Fiction Wormholes Don’t Exist

[Cavebear]

In some ways I think sci-fi has done us a disservice, in that people now think travelling through the void will be a piece of cake once the right genius comes along, and any place we go out there will have habitable planets. I think neither is the case.

Yeah. The more we learn about what we need on Earth, the harder it is to find a match elsewhere.  I remember when people thought that all Mars needed were some plants to produce oxygen.  I suppose we even need mosquitos.

[Cavebear]

Yeah, you're probably right.  There are real safety issues with worm hole travel.

Well, first there is getting through the black hole.  No wait, first there is getting to the black hole.  No wait, probably something else too.

[Unbeliever]

I'm a big fan of the Rare Earth Hypothesis.

[Cavebear]

Ah, here it is:

Science Fiction Wormholes Don’t Exist

Well, there is the time paradox.  Supposedly you fall forever from a personal POV.  Bad for scheduling a trip to the other side...

[Unbeliever]

That might be OK for vacations, but business trips would suck...

[Cavebear]

I'm a big fan of the Rare Earth Hypothesis.

Well, I never assumed anything we meet "out there" would be humanoid.  Maybe not even "octopoid".  Imagination fails us.

[Unbeliever]

Maybe, but form follows function, so similar environments should evolve similar morphologies.

[Hydra009]

The Drake equation is nothing but a series of uneducated guesses, at best. The first few terms have been firmed up a bit, but the later terms are completely unknown.

Here's a slightly modified version.

Ns: the number of stars in our galaxy (200-400 billion)
fp: the fraction of stars with planets (close to 100%)
fH: the fraction of stars with the right conditions for habitability (unknown, maybe around 25%)
np: the number of worlds around habitable stars with the right conditions for life  (unknown, possibly 100%)
fl: the fraction of these worlds where life arises (unknown, if 1-in-10,000 that's 10 million in the Milky Way)
fx: the fraction of life-having worlds with complex, differentiated organisms (unknown, if 1-in-1,000 that's 10,000 in the Milky Way)
ft: the fraction of those worlds which presently house a scientifically/technologically advanced civilization (complete unknown, could be low odds or extremely low odds)

Granted, this quickly devolves into guesswork, but the only way we'd know that last one with any certainty would be if we've already made contact.  So we're just going to have to be satisfied with guessing for now.

But even assuming low odds, that's anywhere from one to several per galaxy.  In a universe of at least 2 trillion galaxies.  That's adds up to quite a lot!

The main problem imho would be any of these civilizations ever making contact with any of the rest of them.  The distances are so unfathomably vast.  Every civilization could quite possibly be alone together.

[Cavebear]

Here's a slightly modified version.

Ns: the number of stars in our galaxy (200-400 billion)
fp: the fraction of stars with planets (close to 100%)
fH: the fraction of stars with the right conditions for habitability (unknown, maybe around 25%)
np: the number of worlds around habitable stars with the right conditions for life  (unknown, possibly 100%)
fl: the fraction of these worlds where life arises (unknown, if 1-in-10,000 that's 10 million in the Milky Way)
fx: the fraction of life-having worlds with complex, differentiated organisms (unknown, if 1-in-1,000 that's 10,000 in the Milky Way)
ft: the fraction of those worlds which presently house a scientifically/technologically advanced civilization (complete unknown, could be low odds or extremely low odds)

Granted, this quickly devolves into guesswork, but the only way we'd know that last one with any certainty would be if we've already made contact.  So we're just going to have to be satisfied with guessing for now.

But even assuming low odds, that's anywhere from one to several per galaxy.  In a universe of at least 2 trillion galaxies.  That's adds up to quite a lot!

The main problem imho would be in any of these civilizations ever making contact with any of the rest of them.  The distances are so unfathomably vast.  Every civilization could quite possibly be alone together.

The last 3 are "known unknowns".  But I agree that anything not "zero" in those means "something is there".

[Baruch]

It is possible to guess at our future by studying the past.  But when we finally leave the planet Earth successfully, it will be the grandest journey into the unknown we have ever faced.  Personally, I hope we are the only species to reach technological intelligence so that we face no real enemies.  I don't want us to meet more advanced species.  It didn't work too well for the Native Americans.  Even just a century of difference would be fatal.

I love Star Trek, but I remember Cortez too.  And I've read Guns, Germs, and Steel.

History doesn't repeat, it rhymes.  Which is why poets are the masters of fate.

Bacteria and viruses are more advanced species, in that they evolve faster (see flu season) and we are helping them become stronger (because we impede them but don't destroy them).