Author Topic: What if Clinton won.  (Read 2873 times)

What if Clinton won.
« on: March 01, 2018, 11:41:46 AM »
I listened to a podcast with historian and political commentator Niall Ferguson and thought he had an interesting take on the Trump presidency. He imagines the consequences had Hillary Clinton won. He states that Trump’s win provided catharsis for the most disgruntled people in the US and that if Clinton had won the claims that the election had been rigged, which Trump prepared the ground for, would have appeared validated. He believes “the familiar cast of characters from Clintonworld” would have reappeared confirming the narrative that “the elites” are in charge. He speculates there would be an avalanche of fake news regarding the election and that demonstrations in the US would have been much uglier than the Women’s March.  He also points out that with a Republican-controlled Congress government would be instantly gridlocked and it is unknown how members of Congress would respond to a base that is literally up in arms. With either president, the nation would be in conflict.

Ferguson believes that ultimately it will be better for liberals that Trump won and got his chance to be president. He insists Trump isn’t a fascist, he is populist and historically populists don’t last long because when they get into office they typically can’t fulfill their promises. Trump sold the idea that he was a man of the people who would “make American great again” and help struggling Americans, but his policies are primarily benefiting corporations and the wealthy. Americans may realize that with curtailed immigration, tariffs on imports and corporation making more money that their daily lives don’t improve, that they still are unhappy. Meanwhile, liberal media outlets have a surge in views, the Democratic party is awash in cash and more people on the left are energized.

I think he is onto something. Remembering back to how angry people were during the election I don’t think Trump supporters would have been gracious losers. If Trump can improve the lives of Americans in four years, great! And if he can’t and things are worse then perhaps voters will think twice before electing an unqualified “billionaire” celebrity to helm the country.
“You are the sky. Everything else – it’s just the weather.”

― Pema Chödrön

Online Hydra009

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2018, 12:11:01 PM »
Either way, we'd still be a nation divided with a whole host of problems.  And political gridlock is such a normal thing now that predicting it is a bit like predicting war in the middle east or the sun rising in the morning.

However, there are a few ways that I think a Clinton presidency would've diverged from a Trump presidency:
1) Much better appointees.  These people would be at least partially capable of running the agencies they've been tasked with running.
2) Much better science/energy policies.  Suffice it to say that crippling the EPA, pulling out of the Paris climate accords, taxing solar to death, recinding environmental regulations, and touting "beautiful, clean coal" would not be on Clinton's agenda.
3) Better relations with other countries.  While we would doubtlessly be at loggerheads with Russia and North Korea, we wouldn't allienate our western allies nor "shithole" African/Caribbean countries.
4) modest change with regards to healthcare and minimum wage - bernie's main issues and areas where the dem base most desires change.  True, political gridlock would stymie this, but it's likely that small changes would be underway.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2018, 12:14:01 PM by Hydra009 »

Offline Shiranu

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2018, 12:19:19 PM »
I'm not going to hold my breath that America is going to improve or learn it's lesson. We already know Russia and the media are very intent on dividing our society and causing chaos through social media... and I don't see that situation improving any time soon.

There are legitimate divides in American society, and trump ripping them wider by the week isn't going to magically heal the moment someone of the opposite direction takes office. If anything, it will just regalvanize the opposite side.

It's society that is broken, as well as our politics. We have probably passed the point where one can fix the other.
Quod est inferius, est sicut quod est superius.
Et quod est superius, est sicut quod est inferius.

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2018, 12:22:47 PM »
While I think there is truth to this argument I don't see why anything will necessarily be different if Trump looses in 2020. True it will not be to Clinton so some of the built in Clinton-Conspiracy will not be there, but Trump giving in to some of his darker "deep-state"/rigged election paranoia while having his hands on the levers of power could be terrifying. Go back and replay some of Trump's greatest hits of 2016, but imagine he controlled the justice department.
"Observe that noses were made to wear spectacles; and so we have spectacles. Legs were visibly instituted to be breeched, and we have breeches" Voltaire�s Candide

Offline SGOS

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2018, 12:23:56 PM »
I have actually been in agreement with this before I ever read it.  I might be a little more cautious with the claims as I'm really bad at predicting outcomes.  And now that I think about it, I'm certainly not convinced that Trump won't get a second term.  I was not excited about Hillary as a candidate.  I would have expected more of the same, and the same is not the direction I want to see the country go.  Income inequality has been getting continually worse under Republican and Democratic leadership, with special bailouts that favor the elite.  A Hillary presidency did not excite me.  She is an integral part of the established power structure.  But I doubt that Hillary would get another nomination, based on what I think was a lack of Democratic turnout.  It's not like Democrats hated her, but she wasn't exciting enough to get the marginally disenfranchised to the polls.  Much depends on who the Democrats field next time around.

I also think Democrats need to alter their identity politics approach, and support legislation that directly helps everyone rather than targets select groups.  The redistribution of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy needs to end if they want to get constituents firmly committed and showing up at the polls.

Online Hydra009

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2018, 12:43:55 PM »
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A Hillary presidency did not excite me.
Yeah, that was a common complaint prior to the election.

I'd like to sit down with everyone who espoused that sentiment and go over their thoughts on Trump: Year One and ask them how thrilled they are with that.

Offline trdsf

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2018, 12:58:57 PM »
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Yeah, that was a common complaint prior to the election.

I'd like to sit down with everyone who espoused that sentiment and go over their thoughts on Trump: Year One and ask them how thrilled they are with that.

Well, I was talking with my brother over the weekend and he says he's "not proud" he voted for the Orange Disaster Area.  He voted that way more for not liking Hillary than anything else, and some sympathy for the 'drain the swamp' message... although he's realized that you don't clean up a swamp by throwing shit into it.
Sir Terry Pratchett, on being told about the theory that the universe is a computer simulation: "If we all get out and in again, would it start to work properly this time?"

Offline Baruch

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2018, 01:03:02 PM »
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I listened to a podcast with historian and political commentator Niall Ferguson and thought he had an interesting take on the Trump presidency. He imagines the consequences had Hillary Clinton won. He states that Trump’s win provided catharsis for the most disgruntled people in the US and that if Clinton had won the claims that the election had been rigged, which Trump prepared the ground for, would have appeared validated. He believes “the familiar cast of characters from Clintonworld” would have reappeared confirming the narrative that “the elites” are in charge. He speculates there would be an avalanche of fake news regarding the election and that demonstrations in the US would have been much uglier than the Women’s March.  He also points out that with a Republican-controlled Congress government would be instantly gridlocked and it is unknown how members of Congress would respond to a base that is literally up in arms. With either president, the nation would be in conflict.

Ferguson believes that ultimately it will be better for liberals that Trump won and got his chance to be president. He insists Trump isn’t a fascist, he is populist and historically populists don’t last long because when they get into office they typically can’t fulfill their promises. Trump sold the idea that he was a man of the people who would “make American great again” and help struggling Americans, but his policies are primarily benefiting corporations and the wealthy. Americans may realize that with curtailed immigration, tariffs on imports and corporation making more money that their daily lives don’t improve, that they still are unhappy. Meanwhile, liberal media outlets have a surge in views, the Democratic party is awash in cash and more people on the left are energized.

I think he is onto something. Remembering back to how angry people were during the election I don’t think Trump supporters would have been gracious losers. If Trump can improve the lives of Americans in four years, great! And if he can’t and things are worse then perhaps voters will think twice before electing an unqualified “billionaire” celebrity to helm the country.

Niall Ferguson though ... is Deep State.  So examine very carefully anything he claims.  Otherwise I would tend to agree vs Trump ... but D-party is smoking too much MJ, ever since 1968.
𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎌𐎀𐎍𐎎𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀𐎟𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎁𐎀𐎍𐎉𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀
luu shalmaata luu balt’aata
May you be well, may you be healthy

Offline Baruch

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2018, 01:05:46 PM »
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Well, I was talking with my brother over the weekend and he says he's "not proud" he voted for the Orange Disaster Area.  He voted that way more for not liking Hillary than anything else, and some sympathy for the 'drain the swamp' message... although he's realized that you don't clean up a swamp by throwing shit into it.

Nuclear war with righteous Christian Russia ... will clear up the American swamp ... that has been the Deep State plan all along.
𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎌𐎀𐎍𐎎𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀𐎟𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎁𐎀𐎍𐎉𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀
luu shalmaata luu balt’aata
May you be well, may you be healthy

Offline trdsf

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2018, 01:09:09 PM »
The other thing to keep in mind had Hillary taken office is that the congressional GOP would have essentially begun impeachment hearings on Jan 21, 2017.  And had she done a tenth of the shit the Orange Disaster Area has, they would have put forth articles of impeachment by now.
Sir Terry Pratchett, on being told about the theory that the universe is a computer simulation: "If we all get out and in again, would it start to work properly this time?"

Offline Baruch

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2018, 01:10:26 PM »
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The other thing to keep in mind had Hillary taken office is that the congressional GOP would have essentially begun impeachment hearings on Jan 21, 2017.  And had she done a tenth of the shit the Orange Disaster Area has, they would have put forth articles of impeachment by now.

I recommend that technique ... should have been ongoing against any idiot elected as President, starting with Bill Clinton ;-)  So much more entertaining than assassination or civil war.
𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎌𐎀𐎍𐎎𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀𐎟𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎁𐎀𐎍𐎉𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀
luu shalmaata luu balt’aata
May you be well, may you be healthy

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2018, 01:36:26 PM »
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Nuclear war with righteous Christian Russia ... will clear up the American swamp ... that has been the Deep State plan all along.

A nuclear detonation is what most concerns me about Trump. With Putin unveiling his "invincible" nuclear missiles that can strike anywhere in the world and Trump being able to launch nukes without any process to intervene, things are troubling.   
“You are the sky. Everything else – it’s just the weather.”

― Pema Chödrön

Offline SGOS

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2018, 03:56:50 PM »
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Yeah, that was a common complaint prior to the election [Lack of enthusiasm for Hillary].

I'd like to sit down with everyone who espoused that sentiment and go over their thoughts on Trump: Year One and ask them how thrilled they are with that.
I would too.  It goes without saying that they are disappointed with Trump.  I'm guessing that some of the disenfranchised didn't show up at the polls because the assumption was that Hillary had it in the bag as all the polls predicted, but they just weren't excited enough about her to bother showing up to vote.  I've only heard one pollster interviewed, but he supported that contention.  His guess on why he got it wrong was that a lot of voters he polled said they were for Hillary, but their claims were not followed up by actual votes.  His assumption was that this was true for other pollsters as well.  This makes sense to me. 

This is probably somewhat tangential to the question about what degree non voting Democrats feel personal remorse.  Never-the-less, why voters didn't show up should be of the utmost importance to the Democratic Party for planning future strategies to excite their potential constituents.

As a side observation.  We frequently hear strategists talking about the importance of getting their message out.  I find this disturbing as the message is not as important as the actions taken while politicians are in office.  To me, the message is just words, while legislative behavior is paramount.  But I suppose for most voters, the message weighs heavily, and I think that can be verified by Trump's election.  While his message was bullshit, it was very clear.  And when I think back about Hillary, I can't remember what her message even was at the moment.  I'd have to review parts of the campaign to identify what it was.


Offline Baruch

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2018, 06:38:42 PM »
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A nuclear detonation is what most concerns me about Trump. With Putin unveiling his "invincible" nuclear missiles that can strike anywhere in the world and Trump being able to launch nukes without any process to intervene, things are troubling.

Launch!  At most you will lose useless future opportunities to vote.  You think that war-lord Hillary would do a Gandhi on Putin?  Only death is invincible, leaders should remember that.
𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎌𐎀𐎍𐎎𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀𐎟𐎍𐎜𐎜𐎟𐎁𐎀𐎍𐎉𐎀𐎀𐎚𐎀
luu shalmaata luu balt’aata
May you be well, may you be healthy

Re: What if Clinton won.
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2018, 02:49:00 PM »
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Launch!  At most you will lose useless future opportunities to vote.  You think that war-lord Hillary would do a Gandhi on Putin?  Only death is invincible, leaders should remember that.

I don't think it is wise for any person to be able to singlehandedly detonate a nuclear weapon, but Donald Trump has demonstrated a pattern of behavior throughout his career that makes him a particularly poor choice for this unique responsibility.
“You are the sky. Everything else – it’s just the weather.”

― Pema Chödrön

 

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