Author Topic: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory  (Read 210 times)

Online Shiranu (OP)

Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« on: January 07, 2018, 07:33:14 AM »

Aside: I nearly did it for the first time... I nearly put "Trump" with the word "Presidency" following it. Petty? Sure, but I have gone over a year now without saying his position and his name at the same time, and I refuse to start now.





Quote
Last week, my colleague Nate Silver used census data to show that education, not income, determined the shift from Republican to Democratic votes in the 2016 election. It turns out that the exit polls can also help us confirm and expand that thesis.
First, it’s clear from the exit polls that for white voters, every bit of extra education meant less support for Trump.1 That is, it wasn’t just a matter of attending college or getting a degree. While much has been made of the college and non-college divide (which is stark), Trump actually won whites who earned only a bachelor’s degree by a fairly wide margin. Just as big a gap was between the votes of those who graduated from college and those who went to graduate school. The latter group supported Clinton in much larger numbers.

Second, education matters a lot even when separating out income levels. Trump won by 24 percentage points or more among every single income group of whites without a college education than those with one. In his worst income group among those without a college degree, he did over 20 percentage points better than he did in his best income group among whites with a college degree. Among those making between $30,000 and $99,999, the difference is about 40 percentage points.


Third, Trump saw little difference in his support between income levels within each education group. He won every single income group among those with no college degree by between 32 percentage points and 49 percentage points. He saw a 16 percentage point gap in his margin between his worst and best income group among whites with at least a college degree. Further, there isn’t a clear effect of income across most education groups. Trump’s two worst groups among college whites were those who earn less than $50,000 and those earning more than $200,000. Among whites without a college degree, one of his best groups was those earning $200,000 or more per year.

This is why I find this talk about the "campus culture" to be very dangerous; first, it isn't particularly accurate... no more than saying white culture is predominately racist, or that African Americans are gangbangers. The truth is college campuses are as diverse as literally any other field you could place here, both in terms of culture and in terms of what they teach.


Second it legitimizes this idea of an "intellectual elite" class that is out to destroy Western culture and emboldens this regressive discourse that education is something to be feared and hatred rather than something we should strive for. And in doing so, it allows powerful political groups to exploit that fear and hatred for their own gains while further driving a wedge between the working class.

Are there problems with the university culture? Yes. Yes. Yes. But to say it is blown out of proportion is one of the understatements of the year, and the dialog surrounding it is not one based on reality but rather one powerful groups are using to further divide and conquer the American people.




This hatred for higher education, this fear of "university culture"... it's all a tool to help secure their power. By all means, there is shit universities and their students do that is batshit crazy, and by all means call them out on it... but we need to stop acting like the Rudy Martinezs, the crazy yelling feminist on the quad, whatever... is representative of the college culture as a whole. It's not; the overwhelming majority of us are people working 1, 2 jobs who have been fed a myth that dropping tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of dollars (thus driving us into debt) into a higher education will secure our financial future. We just want to get in, get out, and hope that the American Dream of working hard and doing what our teacher's told us was the smart thing to do (in hindsight, college was not a smart choice) pays off.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2018, 07:37:30 AM by Shiranu »
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Online Baruch

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2018, 08:07:51 AM »
Happy are those with a PhD, and MD and a JD ... and who see all others as bugs.

Intelligence, is the result of male autism, and of mixed results, given the anti-social nature of intellectuals (see Marx).

The time, in the Middle Ages, when there was an actual battle, with casualties, between Oxford University, and the town of Oxford.  This is why young men are drafted into the British Navy or Army, and sent overseas to bother foreigners ;-)

I am highly educated, and see, but don't despair, that the majority accept such nobodies as George W or Donald, or many other sociopaths.  Why unlike Czech Republic, did we not have a leader like Vaclav Havel?  A famous author?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Václav_Havel

It may be because of the aridity of American culture, which is derivative and consumerist.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2018, 08:13:22 AM by Baruch »
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Offline Cavebear

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 12:03:04 PM »
You better start thinking that Trump IS President.  And THEN start challenging the gerrymandering that made him so.  Get down to the roots and build up...
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2018, 02:59:28 AM »
Read all It is a good thing for me. I read a lot of good knowledge.

Online Baruch

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2018, 03:06:12 AM »
Read all It is a good thing for me. I read a lot of good knowledge.

Please make an introduction.
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Offline pr126

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2018, 03:10:58 AM »
Please make an introduction.
Nookynaree smells like a bot. Or a spammer in waiting.
“True Ignorance is not the absence of knowledge but the refusal to acquire it.” - Karl Popper

“It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled”  - Mark Twain

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2018, 12:19:22 PM »
Nookynaree smells like a bot. Or a spammer in waiting.
Yeah, a test post to see if it got in.
We 'new atheists' have a reputation for being militant, but make no mistake  we didn't start this war. If you want to place blame put it on the the religious zealots who have been poisoning the minds of the  young for a long long time."
PZ Myers

« Last Edit: Today at 01:04:32 AM by orcus »

Online Baruch

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Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #9 on: Today at 10:48:24 AM »
There's an issue here with asserting correlation as causation.

People who go to school for longer tend to be different from the rest of the population in a number of ways to start with. How much of Clinton support was "Attended Graduate School --> Voted Clinton" and how much was "Highly Values Education --> Voted Clinton"?

It's hardly news that Trump isn't exactly the pro-education candidate.

Offline trdsf

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #10 on: Today at 12:36:39 PM »
You better start thinking that Trump IS President.  And THEN start challenging the gerrymandering that made him so.  Get down to the roots and build up...
Gerrymandering had nothing to do with that, it was the Electoral College -- although one could make a case that the Electoral College represents a sort of national gerrymandering, I suppose.

Gerrymandering is what keeps the GOP in power in the House, and yes, that very much needs to be rooted out.  I just wish I felt better about the current Supreme Court tackling it.
"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning." -- Calvin and Hobbes
"I thought I committed regicide today, but I committed deicide!" -- Sadie Doyle, Beyond Belief

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #11 on: Today at 12:47:35 PM »
This is what "education" means now. Nothing but demagoguery among the inferior people.
Smacks of trumpie/racist drive by.  Well, keep on driving..............................
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?
Then he is not omnipotent,
Is he able but not willing?
Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able or willing?
Then why call him god?

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #12 on: Today at 01:21:12 PM »
I just wish I felt better about the current Supreme Court tackling it.
It's unfortunate, but any Supreme Court is sort of a threat to progressive ideals. Research has been converging on the idea that being in a position of judicial power makes you more conservative, too.

No subconscious motivation to share or play nice if you hold almost all the cards already.

Offline trdsf

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #13 on: Today at 01:30:25 PM »
It's unfortunate, but any Supreme Court is sort of a threat to progressive ideals. Research has been converging on the idea that being in a position of judicial power makes you more conservative, too.

No subconscious motivation to share or play nice if you hold almost all the cards already.
Actually, there's a considerable body of evidence that Supreme Court justices tend to move leftwards over the course of their time on the bench -- this is not the same as moving to a politically liberal position, but they usually retire or die occupying a political position that is either less conservative or more liberal than where they started.
"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning." -- Calvin and Hobbes
"I thought I committed regicide today, but I committed deicide!" -- Sadie Doyle, Beyond Belief

Online Baruch

Re: Education, Not Income, Predicted Trump's Victory
« Reply #14 on: Today at 01:51:29 PM »
Gerrymandering had nothing to do with that, it was the Electoral College -- although one could make a case that the Electoral College represents a sort of national gerrymandering, I suppose.

Gerrymandering is what keeps the GOP in power in the House, and yes, that very much needs to be rooted out.  I just wish I felt better about the current Supreme Court tackling it.

Resurrect Zombis Scalia ... maybe he will arbitrarily decide all elections in your favor ... bwahaha.

Yes, if we had a different Constitution, we would be British.  No electoral college nor senate, just a House of Lords.
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