Author Topic: Believe in Tesla and Volt?  (Read 837 times)

Offline SGOS

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2017, 02:05:24 PM »
Yeah, the price is the main thing holding back mass adoption.  As always, new technology has a steep initial cost.  But as the price comes down to roughly on par with gasoline vehicles, they'll quickly take over the market.  Given the option, who'd want a car with higher fuel costs and maintenance costs?
Also, I don't see a problem with lack of charging stations.  It seems like it would be much easier to create a charging station than a fueling station, which requires buried tanks, pumps, and also requires constant maintenance from fuel trucks.  It seems like fueling stations could be adapted to charging... maybe.  The representative also talked about plans for restaurants, where people could eat a lunch while the car undergoes a 30 minute recharge, which as I recall, results in an 80% charge, while an overnight charge produces 100%.  After a 300 mile drive, most people would enjoy a place to eat anyway, and I picture a lot of charging stations so people aren't waiting for their turn at the pump, so the layout of the fuel stops may be different from the traditional pump arrangement.  It doesn't sound like a big compromise where major lifestyle and driving adjustments will be required, however.  It will be different, but not an unreasonable adjustment.

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2017, 02:35:18 PM »
Also, I don't see a problem with lack of charging stations.
Yeah, that's no problem.  I mean, you can do it at home.  That's the ultimate convenience right there.  But assuming you're on a long trip and can't make it home before you have to recharge, there are already a lot of charging stations.  About a dozen in my neck of the woods.  And this before mass adoption when they are only a small fraction of the vehicles on the road.  As demand for charging stations increases, you'd better believe a lot more of them will spring up.  And yes, gas stations can easily host them.  Some already do.

Long story short, the idea that electric car owners are likely to be stranded is nonsense.

In fact, as the country becomes less and less dependent on gasoline, the opposite might be more likely.  Though by that time, most everyone will have already made the switch.  It'll be like the analog-digital TV switchover.  Everyone gets fair warning well in advance, but some people are surprised anyway.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 02:53:55 PM by Hydra009 »

Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2017, 08:16:15 PM »
Also, I don't see a problem with lack of charging stations.  It seems like it would be much easier to create a charging station than a fueling station, which requires buried tanks, pumps, and also requires constant maintenance from fuel trucks.  It seems like fueling stations could be adapted to charging... maybe.  The representative also talked about plans for restaurants, where people could eat a lunch while the car undergoes a 30 minute recharge, which as I recall, results in an 80% charge, while an overnight charge produces 100%.  After a 300 mile drive, most people would enjoy a place to eat anyway, and I picture a lot of charging stations so people aren't waiting for their turn at the pump, so the layout of the fuel stops may be different from the traditional pump arrangement.  It doesn't sound like a big compromise where major lifestyle and driving adjustments will be required, however.  It will be different, but not an unreasonable adjustment.

Lets see, recharge stations .. need to replace most gas stations ... is that 100,000 ... takes about $100K each, so that is about $10B ... not much money, not counting the actual electricity.  Now get someone to build it.  But it takes me 10 minutes to gas up at a gas station.  Takes overnight at a recharge station.  Oops.  Apples vs Oranges comparison strikes again.  Golf carts make sense at golf courses.  You don't drive them home, and you can let them recharge overnight.  So we have super golf carts, driven by the usual suspects (very rich golf players who are not in a hurry) ... but if that is all the people you have after nuclear war, then we are good to go.  Perhaps as a recharge station caddy you can find a job at the local pro shop ;-)  As for keeping a recharge station at home ... you are limited in distance, since a recharge at a distant location (in a daisy chain of recharging) takes too long to cross a long distance.
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Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2017, 08:17:25 PM »
Yeah, that's no problem.  I mean, you can do it at home.  That's the ultimate convenience right there.  But assuming you're on a long trip and can't make it home before you have to recharge, there are already a lot of charging stations.  About a dozen in my neck of the woods.  And this before mass adoption when they are only a small fraction of the vehicles on the road.  As demand for charging stations increases, you'd better believe a lot more of them will spring up.  And yes, gas stations can easily host them.  Some already do.

Long story short, the idea that electric car owners are likely to be stranded is nonsense.

In fact, as the country becomes less and less dependent on gasoline, the opposite might be more likely.  Though by that time, most everyone will have already made the switch.  It'll be like the analog-digital TV switchover.  Everyone gets fair warning well in advance, but some people are surprised anyway.

Actually the plan in Britain (and by analogy, the US) is to mandate it.  If you can't do it by XXXX date, you will just have to walk.  Post-modern communism.  More like the forced move from VHS, to DVD to Streaming.  I will never Stream ... I have books and watch YouTube.  If the Internet rentier scam gets too expensive, then I will drop that.  I have books.  If the R-D dictatorship bans bucks, I will go Fahrenheit 454 on them.  The constant attraction of dystopia ... is proof the human race, shouldn't survive.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 08:21:05 PM by Baruch »
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Offline SGOS

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2017, 01:10:02 AM »
Lets see, recharge stations .. need to replace most gas stations ... is that 100,000 ... takes about $100K each, so that is about $10B ... not much money, not counting the actual electricity.  Now get someone to build it.  But it takes me 10 minutes to gas up at a gas station.  Takes overnight at a recharge station.  Oops.  Apples vs Oranges comparison strikes again.  Golf carts make sense at golf courses.  You don't drive them home, and you can let them recharge overnight.  So we have super golf carts, driven by the usual suspects (very rich golf players who are not in a hurry) ... but if that is all the people you have after nuclear war, then we are good to go.  Perhaps as a recharge station caddy you can find a job at the local pro shop ;-)  As for keeping a recharge station at home ... you are limited in distance, since a recharge at a distant location (in a daisy chain of recharging) takes too long to cross a long distance.
The cost of the stations are business investments.  They won't be built unless they can generate a profit, and they will depending on demand, depreciation write offs, and other considerations.  I wouldn't worry about the owners of the stations.  They will build them if they can make a profit.  Construction stimulates the economy too, and building construction is one of the first indicators of a recovery.  It's not a negative to build things.  It's a good thing, and it creates jobs for coal miners and other out of work laborers.

It takes 30 minutes to charge at a station.  I noticed you compared your 10 minute petroleum stop to the overnight charge which is done at home or a motel while you are sleeping and isn't really a time issue, and the difference between an overnight charge and a station charge only results in 70 extra miles with current battery technology. 

So your charging time comparisons actually are apples to oranges, as is your comparison of golf carts to Teslas and Volts.  But I know you are just doing your philosopher thing of questioning the change, and that's fine.  But this thing is going to happen, with or without your apples, oranges, and cautionary warnings.  Undoubtedly, there will be wrinkles along the way.  Change usually involves wrinkles.  And conservatives will want to stop it, but they won't have a clue how to do that, although the best minds in the oil industry are probably working on it as we speak.

We have been talking about lowering our dependence on fossil fuels and doing something about global warming for 30 years, and this should be right up your alley.  It's a major step that goes beyond the political gamesmanship of our two party system, and it's not even happening because the government is involved, which I doubt it ever will be at a practical level.  It is free enterprise doing it all by itself, although the government will want to take credit, I suppose.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 01:11:44 AM by SGOS »

Offline PickelledEggs

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2017, 02:57:25 AM »
Baruch, I think you have finally went so far off in to nonsense that you confused yourself.
"Tell Pilate to release the files!!!" - Bill Hicks
"I have an open mind, but not so open that my brains will fall out" -James Randi
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Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2017, 07:03:52 AM »
The cost of the stations are business investments.  They won't be built unless they can generate a profit, and they will depending on demand, depreciation write offs, and other considerations.  I wouldn't worry about the owners of the stations.  They will build them if they can make a profit.  Construction stimulates the economy too, and building construction is one of the first indicators of a recovery.  It's not a negative to build things.  It's a good thing, and it creates jobs for coal miners and other out of work laborers.

It takes 30 minutes to charge at a station.  I noticed you compared your 10 minute petroleum stop to the overnight charge which is done at home or a motel while you are sleeping and isn't really a time issue, and the difference between an overnight charge and a station charge only results in 70 extra miles with current battery technology. 

So your charging time comparisons actually are apples to oranges, as is your comparison of golf carts to Teslas and Volts.  But I know you are just doing your philosopher thing of questioning the change, and that's fine.  But this thing is going to happen, with or without your apples, oranges, and cautionary warnings.  Undoubtedly, there will be wrinkles along the way.  Change usually involves wrinkles.  And conservatives will want to stop it, but they won't have a clue how to do that, although the best minds in the oil industry are probably working on it as we speak.

We have been talking about lowering our dependence on fossil fuels and doing something about global warming for 30 years, and this should be right up your alley.  It's a major step that goes beyond the political gamesmanship of our two party system, and it's not even happening because the government is involved, which I doubt it ever will be at a practical level.  It is free enterprise doing it all by itself, although the government will want to take credit, I suppose.

Profit ... in a fake market?  All our markets are fake, we do crony capitalism.  Construction is good for the economy?  Like rebuilding after NorK nukes hit?  Yeah, war stimulates the economy ... just ask the R-D party.  OK ... so quick charge is possible?  I use smaller UPS at work, and they take longer than that to charge.  With most batteries ... frequent shallow recharge reduces battery capacity ... full discharge is necessary to keep the battery healthy.  Also high charge rate means higher amperage capacity required at the station ... that is surge capacity, not the same as steady state (think afternoon electric usage due to AC in Summer).

So this is just politics?  Physics isn't involved?  D-party ... warp drive along shortly, socialism across the Alpha Quadrant?  Change is inevitable ... true, but not progress.  Regress is even more likely (entropy).  Techno-messiahs just ... make me laugh.  I don't want to keep a hay burner, so if I lived long enough, I will be walking to the store ... not using a "transporter".  X-Gen and Millennial group think ... and they think Baby Boomers are crazy ;-)  Jumping off a building to demonstrate flight, isn't more real, if the group agrees.

Wind mill electricity is real, but if it takes 10 years to put in 3% capacity, that works out to 100 years to get to 30% capacity.  So not in my lifetime.  Fiction impacts how people think in normal situations.  Y'all aren't freedom fighters with Princess Leia.  Clones from the Clone Wars perhaps.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 07:17:03 AM by Baruch »
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Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #22 on: November 29, 2017, 07:04:33 AM »
Baruch, I think you have finally went so far off in to nonsense that you confused yourself.

Elon Musk is the Jim Jones of technology, drink the Kool-Aide if you dare.  Earlier, some people claimed that natural gas stations (natural gas added to power gas (not gasoline) powered municipal vehicles and buses) were going to save us.  Yes ... reduce petroleum use, oh you hypocrites.  Walk to work.  Welcome to the new Zimbabwe.  It takes X amount of energy to move a one ton vehicle at Y mph Z distance.  Classical physics.  And QFT doesn't change that (contrary to scifi).  And that energy isn't free, not matter how much the cronies jimmy the economy.  Moore's Law saves your iPhone, but it won't save your car.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 07:12:38 AM by Baruch »
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Offline SGOS

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #23 on: November 29, 2017, 11:04:08 AM »
Elon Musk is the Jim Jones of technology, drink the Kool-Aide if you dare. 
That is an extraordinary amount of thoughtless bullshit.  That is assuming it isn't intentional hyperbole.  Either way it is absurd.

Earlier, some people claimed that natural gas stations (natural gas added to power gas (not gasoline) powered municipal vehicles and buses) were going to save us.  Yes ... reduce petroleum use, oh you hypocrites. 
This isn't about NOT burning so many petroleum derivatives, although that IS one of the consequences.  It's about moving away from an archaic technology that has run its course.  People will drive electric cars for various reasons, some because they are environmental pussies worthy of conservative contempt, some just because they like electric cars better.  Others will fight it because they can't spare the extra 20 minutes for a fill up at a charging station.  No one is forcing this change.  They will still make gas powered vehicles as long as people will buy them.  I doubt you have anything to fear in your lifetime.

Walk to work.  Welcome to the new Zimbabwe. 
This is just absurd nonsense.  I don't know why you would say that.

...energy isn't free, not matter how much the cronies jimmy the economy. 
No one is saying that it is.

Moore's Law saves your iPhone, but it won't save your car.
Maybe, but we don't actually know that, so it seems rather premature.

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #24 on: November 29, 2017, 11:10:40 AM »
We have been talking about lowering our dependence on fossil fuels and doing something about global warming for 30 years, and this should be right up your alley.
Iirc, he bemoaned global warming on a couple threads.  So you'd think he'd be all for doing something to help solve the problem, right?

But apparently renewables and electric cars are too reminiscent of Elon Musk, who he inexplicably has a real hate boner for.  Either that, or it sounds too liberal and triggered the "D and R are bad!" module, followed by the hypocrisy argument that we've already addressed, but when you're talking to a brick wall, what you say doesn't much matter.

(Renewables and electric cars actually shouldn't be a liberal VS conservative thing, but it unfortunately is in the US.  The GOP missed a golden opportunity to support energy independence on nationalistic grounds - that the US should be self-reliant and not dependent on other countries for its energy.  That could've played well with the base.  Unfortunately, the GOP cozied up too much to the oil industry and apparently now does their bidding.  So unfortunately, renewables are a political hot potato in the US.)
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 11:16:15 AM by Hydra009 »

Offline Hakurei Reimu

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2017, 11:54:11 AM »
I don't believe techno-messiahs either, Baruch, but there's plenty of space between the overoptimistic dreams of fiction and the pessimism you are displaying. Physics doesn't care if you're having fun. I already showed a while back that there's a silly amount of energy falling on the earth already to satisfy our energy needs for centuries yet, if only we could harvest it. It doesn't even need to be from PV either; solar thermal is a fine way to get that energy. There's also plenty of options for storage, and not just the many species of electric batteries (which have a wide variety of charge/discharge characteristics), but also flywheels, molten salt storage, water reservoirs, and so on. There's plenty we can do even with the tried and true classical physics you claim to know to make energy much more available, and with that much energy available, our options increase by quite a bit, even if we restrict resource recovery to earthly sources.

So, yes, this is political, because nothing in physics stands in our way.
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Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2017, 01:02:20 PM »
That is an extraordinary amount of thoughtless bullshit.  That is assuming it isn't intentional hyperbole.  Either way it is absurd.
This isn't about NOT burning so many petroleum derivatives, although that IS one of the consequences.  It's about moving away from an archaic technology that has run its course.  People will drive electric cars for various reasons, some because they are environmental pussies worthy of conservative contempt, some just because they like electric cars better.  Others will fight it because they can't spare the extra 20 minutes for a fill up at a charging station.  No one is forcing this change.  They will still make gas powered vehicles as long as people will buy them.  I doubt you have anything to fear in your lifetime.
This is just absurd nonsense.  I don't know why you would say that.
No one is saying that it is.
Maybe, but we don't actually know that, so it seems rather premature.

If you like Elon Musk, as the new Edison, just say so.  But then justify that.

https://thenextweb.com/distract/2017/07/31/elon-musks-tweets-about-his-own-mental-health-offer-a-refreshing-glimpse-inside-a-brilliant-mind/

Archaic technology?  We are going back to the Middle Ages, with horses, but only for the Elite.  Scifi is just agitprop.  Yes, make gas cars $50K, and electric cars $30K ... but how to do that, other than crony capitalism?  Also per Volt/Tesla ... if you lose money on each unit, how are you going to make it up on volume?  But in Britain, they are already proposing outlawing gas/diesel vehicles.  Guess Dr Who has given them superior technology.  And of course, we will see in 20 or 40 years ... but not me.  So far the last 60 years have been a downward spiral ... so I am not optimistic.  Did nothing good happen?  A few things, but that is cherry picking.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 01:18:31 PM by Baruch »
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Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2017, 01:05:29 PM »
Iirc, he bemoaned global warming on a couple threads.  So you'd think he'd be all for doing something to help solve the problem, right?

But apparently renewables and electric cars are too reminiscent of Elon Musk, who he inexplicably has a real hate boner for.  Either that, or it sounds too liberal and triggered the "D and R are bad!" module, followed by the hypocrisy argument that we've already addressed, but when you're talking to a brick wall, what you say doesn't much matter.

(Renewables and electric cars actually shouldn't be a liberal VS conservative thing, but it unfortunately is in the US.  The GOP missed a golden opportunity to support energy independence on nationalistic grounds - that the US should be self-reliant and not dependent on other countries for its energy.  That could've played well with the base.  Unfortunately, the GOP cozied up too much to the oil industry and apparently now does their bidding.  So unfortunately, renewables are a political hot potato in the US.)

Yes, kill 7 billion people, no more global warming.  Or do the Jim Jones version ... carbon trading, death by a thousand taxes.  Elon himself admits .. he is bonkers a lot of the time.  But please give him all your investment.  You won't need the money back ;-)  In fact, given the irrational nature of investment, anyone not putting 100% in BitCoin is a fool.  Why waste your money on a productive investment, when high returns are guaranteed, for nothing?  That was the original point of posting old car scams.  He is politically connected, all the big scammers are.  Enjoy Disneyland-Tomorrowland.  I am still waiting to move into that nearly free plastic house I saw in 1965.  That and cold fusion.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 01:19:16 PM by Baruch »
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Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2017, 01:09:58 PM »
I don't believe techno-messiahs either, Baruch, but there's plenty of space between the overoptimistic dreams of fiction and the pessimism you are displaying. Physics doesn't care if you're having fun. I already showed a while back that there's a silly amount of energy falling on the earth already to satisfy our energy needs for centuries yet, if only we could harvest it. It doesn't even need to be from PV either; solar thermal is a fine way to get that energy. There's also plenty of options for storage, and not just the many species of electric batteries (which have a wide variety of charge/discharge characteristics), but also flywheels, molten salt storage, water reservoirs, and so on. There's plenty we can do even with the tried and true classical physics you claim to know to make energy much more available, and with that much energy available, our options increase by quite a bit, even if we restrict resource recovery to earthly sources.

So, yes, this is political, because nothing in physics stands in our way.

"if only we could harvest it" ... energy density problem says ... you can't solve this.  It takes power to condense energy into dense form, which defeats you.  If I have infinite money, I can make a giant solar cell farm, big enough to take care of my household.  But people in general believe, a Right-wing conspiracy theory, that if the millionaires weren't evil, we would already have free everything.  On the other hand, if things aren't free, then you need infinite money ... please move to Zimbabwe.  Example, I could use sea waves at the beach to make electricity ... but at what cost and quality?  If it is a slam dunk, what conspiracy theory is preventing us from getting energy from every beach?  And no folks, this isn't a liberal vs conservative thing.  Reality has no such prejudice.  But politically, on either wing, we believe propaganda .. "a car in every garage, a chicken in every pot" - Herbert Hoover.

Nobody here is trying to sell anything, so nobody here is a scammer.  They are just in the slough of positive thinking.  If you can get from point A to point B, then positive thinking is helpful.  But if it is impossible, then positive thinking is a trap.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 01:16:12 PM by Baruch »
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Re: Believe in Tesla and Volt?
« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2017, 02:04:00 PM »
I can't tell if Baruch is for or against electric vehicles any more.
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