Author Topic: What date do you estimate atheism will overtake theism in the world population  (Read 1505 times)

Offline Coveny (OP)

For many years now I've felt like the world is losing its religion quite literally. Polls around the world show a trend of fewer and fewer theists. So much so that in some countries atheism is the majority. However on the global scale theism still dominates atheism. We do see the young are far less likely to be theists, and the numbers of atheists there lend support to my idea that theism is dying. So the question is this at what year do you think atheism will become the majority on the global stage?
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4444--if then.  Do NOT underestimate the stupidity of the average theist--or American voter!  It is just sooooooooo much easier to believe than to think or reason.  And the sheeple simply provide too much money to the 'shepherds'  for the fleecing to stop.  Or the election of Drump has me so depressed about things like this that I am not thinking straight.
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?
Then he is not omnipotent,
Is he able but not willing?
Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able or willing?
Then why call him god?

For many years now I've felt like the world is losing its religion quite literally. Polls around the world show a trend of fewer and fewer theists. So much so that in some countries atheism is the majority. However on the global scale theism still dominates atheism. We do see the young are far less likely to be theists, and the numbers of atheists there lend support to my idea that theism is dying. So the question is this at what year do you think atheism will become the majority on the global stage?
From what I've read, atheism is projected to shrink as a percentage of the global population by 2050.  While there are indications that it's growing in many Western countries, that's going to be more than offset by population growth in the developing world (especially among Muslim countries) and theism spreading in China.

Atheism of course will rebound as developing countries undergo demographic transition and secularization eats away at missionaries' gains.

Atheism will be the norm, apparently in the West much earlier much of the rest of the world.  But when?  That's much harder to predict.  A few hundred years?  A thousand?  Longer?

I'm going to go with a few hundred years, 2200 CE or so for the West.   The world might take much longer.  2500 CE or later.

I like to think that theism is in its last throws - but then, that's what Cheney said about Iraq...

Theists are becoming desperate to attract believers, so they're doing all sorts of stuff, like changing the kind of music in church (e.g., more upbeat rock), spiffing up the sermons, etc. Less fire and brimstone and more prosperity gospel.

Theists will be around until long after I'm gone, I sure,

« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 08:48:55 AM by Unbeliever »
God Not Found
“Money supplants skill; it's possession allows us to become happily stupid.”
Bill McKibben, The Age of Missing Information

I'm not very optimistic. Religion tends to adapt to secular ideals, while claiming that the true believers always held those ideals. They rewrote history when they claimed that Christians were against slavery in America. They'll do it again with homosexuality. I've already seen Christians doing this on social media. Religion cannot be easily killed. Even when people are not particularly religious, they still hold on to their religion because of family tradition. Religion will also always serve as something people can resort to in their pursuit of meaning and happiness. It will not die out so easily.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

Offline pr126

Luckily, there is only one religion exist on the planet - Christianity.
When that disappears, -sooner than you expect-  there will be no religion left to worry about.

I think 2050 is feasible, the way things are going.


“True Ignorance is not the absence of knowledge but the refusal to acquire it.” - Karl Popper

Offline Sal1981

Never. We're more likely to change human nature to be less credulous and jump to conclusions resulting in unfalsifiable beliefs, than be rid of it.

Although atheism has a growth rate of 0.24% per year and non-religious have a growth rate of about 0.8% per year, that is less than population growth per year, so in median, percentage-wise, we're less when compared to total population per year.
http://www.wnrf.org/cms/statuswr.shtml
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool" --- Richard P. Feynman

Offline pr126

Never is a long time.
 What if humans exterminate each other?
In the name of a god, possibly.

“True Ignorance is not the absence of knowledge but the refusal to acquire it.” - Karl Popper

Offline pr126

“True Ignorance is not the absence of knowledge but the refusal to acquire it.” - Karl Popper

Offline Baruch

Luckily, there is only one religion exist on the planet - Christianity.
When that disappears, -sooner than you expect-  there will be no religion left to worry about.

I think 2050 is feasible, the way things are going.

A strange opinion.  Has Ibn Khaldun hijacked your account?
שלום

Offline Baruch



The stats are all skewed, long term.  Originally people came to religion thru non-individual conversion.  In the 20th century people came to atheism thru non-individual conversion.  Then people either one, from there, thru their parents.  So per individual POV, it is all mixed up.  I like to think of this psychologically.  There are approximately 16 personality types.  If people are free of parental influence, then to that extent, they fit into their own personality type.  So probably there will always be one personality type that gets atheism.  The other 15 will get different theisms.  Which is just about how the world is currently arranged, with relatively more religious freedom and freedom from religion, than it had in the past.
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Offline SGOS

There have always been atheists around, not that I was there when mankind lived in caves, but I'm sure there were always men that were prone to reason and verification if only at a simple level, but that subset of humanity is not man's default state.  Logical fallacies are just too seductive to be ignored.  Mankind gravitates to them like moths to a flame.  Mankind does not become more intelligent as his knowledge base increases.  He just has more knowledge.  That part of the brain that seeks to understand at a rational level, probably hasn't changed much since man invented the spear.

Until evolution evolves a brain that is not prone to gravitate to fallacies, intellectual laziness, and supernatural explanations, man will continue to bump along misfiring with his reason while a few keepers of knowledge fight to maintain the libraries as repositories of knowledge, and religionists will compete to stuff the shelves with spiritual nonsense, and even burn a few other shelves from time to time.   Atheists will always be a minority.  Reality is not all that comforting.  The only reason you made it to this stage of your life is not because God saved you for a reason.  It's just as logical to understand you are where you are, because God didn't kill you for no reason.  There is no upside to raw probabilities and actuarial tables.  Man needs a magic hand pulling levers behind a curtain.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 09:54:03 AM by SGOS »

Offline Coveny (OP)

In the course of 7 years atheism has doubled from 1.6 to 3.1 in the U.S. That's an impressive change.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/01/10-facts-about-atheists/
The article covers some of the other issues with defining athiest and the misuse of the term in general.

On the world scene we see much the same.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160422-atheism-agnostic-secular-nones-rising-religion/
The article goes into some of the roadblocks to a wider acceptance of atheism.
Developing ForDebating.com that I hope to populate with intelligent critical thinkers. You can follow updates at https://www.facebook.com/fordebating

The stats are all skewed, long term.  Originally people came to religion thru non-individual conversion.  In the 20th century people came to atheism thru non-individual conversion.  Then people either one, from there, thru their parents.  So per individual POV, it is all mixed up.  I like to think of this psychologically.  There are approximately 16 personality types.  If people are free of parental influence, then to that extent, they fit into their own personality type.  So probably there will always be one personality type that gets atheism.  The other 15 will get different theisms.  Which is just about how the world is currently arranged, with relatively more religious freedom and freedom from religion, than it had in the past.

The four-letter Myers Briggs personality types that I assume you're refering to are not exactly scientifically sound. They oversimplify personalities, but many continue to use them anyway. I haven't seen any research to suggest any one type gravitates to atheism.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

Online Shiranu

Never, and I don't see why it matters either way.
“Life isn't long enough to enjoy and understand all at the same time. You have to decide which is more important." - Pedro Juan Gutierrez

"Too much sanity may be madness and the maddest of all, to see life as it is and not as it should be." - Miguel de Cervantes