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Hurricane Irma

Started by Hydra009, September 06, 2017, 11:22:55 PM

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Baruch

The east side of the hurricane is supposed to be the worst.  So going over Tampa is worse than going over Miami ;-(
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Cavebear

Quote from: SGOS on September 08, 2017, 07:10:13 AM
I had a book on seamanship one time that explained how you could tell where you were in a hurricane by keeping track of which way the wind is coming at you and in which way it is turning direction in relation to you.  If thus and so, you were in the NW quadrant (and therefore you should work your way to the bla bla side) by heading some bla bla direction relative to the wind.  Compass directions were only used to determine wind direction, but useless in figuring out what quadrant you were in, and which way you had to go to be safe.  That seemed like a concept I could sink my teeth into, but no matter how many times I read the explanation or the directions, nothing ever made sense.  Not in a way that I disagreed with it, however.  It was so far beyond the limits of my comprehension, that after reading it several times, and doing my best to open my mind, I didn't have a clue what the book was saying, or how the concepts worked.  I stopped trying to understand it, and just decided it would be better not to think about hurricanes when I'm sailing.

The counterclockwise rotation of a hurricane means that the forward motion means strongest winds in the NE and least in the SW.  Which also means that storm surges generally occur from the SE to the NW after the eye passes. 
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

SGOS

Quote from: Cavebear on September 11, 2017, 02:39:38 AM
The counterclockwise rotation of a hurricane means that the forward motion means strongest winds in the NE and least in the SW.  Which also means that storm surges generally occur from the SE to the NW after the eye passes. 
I've recently revisited the physics of hurricanes on the net, and it's quite easy to understand with diagrams.  The book I referred to had no diagrams, and wasn't interested in the physics.  It attempted to describe a method of finding your way out through the safest route by observing the direction of the wind and whether it is shifting left to right or right to left.  This is how it would be at sea without communications, realizing you have sailed into a hurricane, and are in danger as sails are being ripped off their stays, and it will be two days before you can have a cup of coffee.  This is not as easy as it sounds. 

We might think it is, because we are used to approaching these things backwards from the way they are experienced without forewarning at sea.  If you want to know about Irma, you look it up on the net.  There's Irma.  There's the eye.  There's the arms.   And there's Miami.  It's simple now, because you are looking at backwards.  All the deciphering has been done by some geek that may or may not understand any more than cutting an pasting images from his weather monitor to a internet website, and superimposing it on a map.  He's not in the storm.  He's looking at it from afar.  He can see the entire storm, not just the 1000 sq feet around his boat.

Cavebear

Quote from: SGOS on September 11, 2017, 07:39:00 AM
I've recently revisited the physics of hurricanes on the net, and it's quite easy to understand with diagrams.  The book I referred to had no diagrams, and wasn't interested in the physics.  It attempted to describe a method of finding your way out through the safest route by observing the direction of the wind and whether it is shifting left to right or right to left.  This is how it would be at sea without communications, realizing you have sailed into a hurricane, and are in danger as sails are being ripped off their stays, and it will be two days before you can have a cup of coffee.  This is not as easy as it sounds. 

We might think it is, because we are used to approaching these things backwards from the way they are experienced without forewarning at sea.  If you want to know about Irma, you look it up on the net.  There's Irma.  There's the eye.  There's the arms.   And there's Miami.  It's simple now, because you are looking at backwards.  All the deciphering has been done by some geek that may or may not understand any more than cutting an pasting images from his weather monitor to a internet website, and superimposing it on a map.  He's not in the storm.  He's looking at it from afar.  He can see the entire storm, not just the 1000 sq feet around his boat.

I won't diminish the map geeks.  They explained the effects of the winds wonderfully on MSNBC and CNN.  I caught on well enough.  If the winds are moving counterclockwise and the storm is moving forward/north, it makes sense that the east side winds are stronger.

The confusion comes from where the landside is.  Land both robs a hurricane of moisture and wind speed.  So when a hurricane moves up the west side of FL, it both slows and moves west.  And the wind/rain falls heaviest from the SW side. 

I can understand it better on a map than I can describe it, but it all geometry/geography.

I have family on the keys.  They just moved there last year.  They fled to NE FL and that turned out well I think.  But they may not have a house when they return...  I'll find out in a few days.
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Gawdzilla Sama

The NE quadrant of the storms was always considered the worse place to be, because the winds would drive you around 3/4 of the storm before you had a good chance of getting out of it.
We 'new atheists' have a reputation for being militant, but make no mistake  we didn't start this war. If you want to place blame put it on the the religious zealots who have been poisoning the minds of the  young for a long long time."
PZ Myers

Cavebear

Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on September 11, 2017, 08:11:33 AM
The NE quadrant of the storms was always considered the worse place to be, because the winds would drive you around 3/4 of the storm before you had a good chance of getting out of it.

Close, but not quite.  The NE is usually the hardest hit area of a hurricane because the wind speed and the forward motion are combined.  The NE part is also where the hurricane is sucking up moisture and increasing in intensity. 

If Irma had moved up the eastern coast of FL, it would have been a bit different.

Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Gawdzilla Sama

Quote from: Cavebear on September 11, 2017, 08:38:26 AM
Close, but not quite.  The NE is usually the hardest hit area of a hurricane because the wind speed and the forward motion are combined.  The NE part is also where the hurricane is sucking up moisture and increasing in intensity. 

If Irma had moved up the eastern coast of FL, it would have been a bit different.


Sorry, I was speaking about ships at sea.
We 'new atheists' have a reputation for being militant, but make no mistake  we didn't start this war. If you want to place blame put it on the the religious zealots who have been poisoning the minds of the  young for a long long time."
PZ Myers

Cavebear

Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on September 11, 2017, 08:45:07 AM
Sorry, I was speaking about ships at sea.

Ah, I know the difference.  You quarter the waves when you can.
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

SGOS

#83
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on September 11, 2017, 08:11:33 AM
The NE quadrant of the storms was always considered the worse place to be, because the winds would drive you around 3/4 of the storm before you had a good chance of getting out of it.
You know you don't want to be on the NE side, but how do you know where you are in the hurricane and which direction to you should sail to get out?  You can't look at a hurricane map if you don't have one.  So before you can figure out where to go, you must determine where you are.  You also need to know which direction the storm is going so you don't sail yourself along with it, and keep in mind that 90% of the compass is unavailable to you in a sailboat.  Actually in a storm, it's more like 270 degrees of the compass is unavailable.  Besides getting the Hell out of Dodge, storm tactics demand sailing with the wind.  It's much safer, and you are less likely to have a serious disaster.

Part of this is a theoretical debate of course.  A lot of sailing literature is based on worst case scenarios and the accumulated wisdom relied upon by the 17th century explorers, like the one I referred to earlier about hurricane strategy.  In modern ocean going pleasure boats you are likely to have more sophisticated, equipment that wasn't even available when I started sailing 50 years ago.  Even on my limited budget, I received weather fax printouts  that came out of my computer through modulated short wave radio static.  Well it sounded like static to the ear, but my laptop computer software could translate it into a map that I could save in a folder or print out.

In my mind, the most important thing to remember about crossing an ocean is, "Don't do it during the hurricane season," and there are guide books that tell you when that is depending on what part of the world you are in.  You can wait 6 months for a window.  After all, it's the biggest vacation of your life, and it makes no sense to rush the whole thing.

Gawdzilla Sama

I'd not be going to sea without a compass.
We 'new atheists' have a reputation for being militant, but make no mistake  we didn't start this war. If you want to place blame put it on the the religious zealots who have been poisoning the minds of the  young for a long long time."
PZ Myers

Cavebear

Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on September 11, 2017, 09:37:14 AM
I'd not be going to sea without a compass.

Oh well, a compass!  I keep one in my cargo camos.  A small knife, a notebook, and a pen too.  One never knows, do one?
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Gawdzilla Sama

Quote from: Cavebear on September 11, 2017, 09:42:23 AM
Oh well, a compass!  I keep one in my cargo camos.  A small knife, a notebook, and a pen too.  One never knows, do one?
The binacle is the place to keep a compass on a ship. Life rafts have them as part of the survival gear. My "abandon ship" bag had one.
We 'new atheists' have a reputation for being militant, but make no mistake  we didn't start this war. If you want to place blame put it on the the religious zealots who have been poisoning the minds of the  young for a long long time."
PZ Myers

Cavebear

Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on September 11, 2017, 09:57:08 AM
The binacle is the place to keep a compass on a ship. Life rafts have them as part of the survival gear. My "abandon ship" bag had one.

I'm competent shipboard for a lander, but I had to look up "binacle".  Wonderful.  I keep a backpack in the basement "ready to go".  Nice to see the sensible side of you.  Sometimes we know too little about each other here.
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

SGOS

#88
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on September 11, 2017, 09:37:14 AM
I'd not be going to sea without a compass.
That too.  I had GPS of course and plotting equipment so I could chart a course if the GPS went haywire, and it did start acting funky with the screen going black for long periods about 500 miles from Hawaii, so I replaced it when I got to Hawaii.  I also had two other GPS units, one a cheap hand held, and another which was part of a primitive communication device that allowed me to send brief emails using low orbit satellites.  It was nice to be able to keep in touch on a daily basis via email, and the device would automatically add my lat and longitude coordinates to the emails so people, mostly my sister, could know where I was each day.  She actually learned how to plot positions so she could tell others where I was.

I also had a sextant on board that came with the boat.  Damned if I knew how to use the thing, however, even if I had the databases required to use it, which I didn't.  It was still in it's case sealed in plastic, and had never been used.

The communication device that sent emails was managed by a one man company who had bought the inventory of devices left over from another company that was divesting itself from a little used unprofitable system.  He included a service that allowed me to send a single email to all the people on a list I had to give him, but he dropped the ball and for about a week or two, I was sending emails that didn't get to anyone.  My sister went into a panic until I called her on a sat-phone, which was too expensive to use but once a week, and I told her I  had been sending emails via that special service.  She called the owner of the company had raised holy Hell.  When I got to Sitka Alaska, there was a message waiting for me from the Coast Guard to call them and let them know I had arrived.  My sister had called them too, and they reported back to her that they had researched my route and that there were no severe storms in my path.

About 200 to 500 miles out of Hawaii on the way to Alaska, I was circled by a Coast Guard Plane.  It was of those big honkin' C 130 something or others with the 4 props.  This was before the communications break down.  I listened to my radio and they called me.  They were probably never closer to me than one mile, but they were able to read the name of my boat.  We chatted for a while, and they wished me good luck and then flew off.

Cavebear

When all fails, it is hard to beat a sealed compass and Polaris.
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!