Author Topic: False Confidence  (Read 301 times)

Offline Baruch (OP)

False Confidence
« on: April 24, 2017, 06:39:55 AM »
Some of us, and many of our trolls have a false confidence ...

http://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/2/14750464/truth-facts-psychology-donald-trump-knowledge-science

A cognitive scientist explains why people claim to know more than they know.
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Offline Solomon Zorn

Re: False Confidence
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2017, 09:16:05 PM »
Some of us, and many of our trolls have a false confidence ...

http://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/2/14750464/truth-facts-psychology-donald-trump-knowledge-science

A cognitive scientist explains why people claim to know more than they know.
I wonder if the cognitive scientist knows as much about it, as he claims to...
If God Exists, Why Does He Pretend Not to Exist?
Poetry and Proverbs of the Uneducated Hick

http://www.solomonzorn.com

Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: False Confidence
« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2017, 10:10:05 PM »
I wonder if the cognitive scientist knows as much about it, as he claims to...

I have come to the conclusion, that experts are biased, and non-experts are idiots ... so don't listen to anyone ... except for the entertainment random grunts and fart noises can give you.
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Offline SGOS

Re: False Confidence
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2017, 07:47:48 AM »
It's chilling, and I have been guilty of this too.  Reinforcement from others who get it wrong, creates a sense of right, and that helps eliminate any need to stop and think.  Sometimes false ideas even have a very plausible sense about them even when you do take time to think, and then the sense of being right can become a sense of certainty.

One of the things I like about a forum where logic is emphasized is that those cherished beliefs, well maybe not cherished, just things we believe because it's a default state not to question, get questioned.  You don't have to be called an idiot outright, but you know there are people carefully listening and weighing ideas, even if they may not bother to respond.  This helps you stop and think before you post.  You develop a sense of caution about what you actually know.

I try to carry what I've learned about thinking here into everyday life, but in the heat of oral discussion, there often isn't time to think.  For good or bad, oral discussion doesn't always require thinking, because in oral discussion, people spend an inordinate amount of energy on relating, as opposed to thinking, and half the time they aren't even listening, so you end up letting yourself get away with all kinds of nonsense.  But after hanging out in places like this, there is an element of caution that does carry into normal outside conversation.  And that's a good thing.

Offline SGOS

Re: False Confidence
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2017, 08:11:56 AM »
I wonder if the cognitive scientist knows as much about it, as he claims to...
Of course, he's biased about Trump, but I think he's on the right track, and I think he nailed bits of the human condition, but he started using examples from politics, which made me start wondering about his real motivation.  Was he explaining how people think (or don't think), or was he explaining why people are obviously idiots when it comes to Trump?  Trumpism might be a good example of over confidence without thought, but it made me suspicious of the whole purpose of the interview.

Still, like a good theory, the research makes a reasonable case for why people develop a high degree of confidence in their own bullshit.  I would have stayed away from political examples, because it becomes a distraction, rather than a good example.


Offline Baruch (OP)

Re: False Confidence
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2017, 12:47:03 PM »
Under mob rule, the collective emotion and will of the crowd are overwhelming.  See any Third Reich revival meeting.  I am sure Hitler studied revival preachers carefully.
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Offline Cavebear

Re: False Confidence
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2017, 04:30:09 AM »
Any argument using politics as a base is in error.  All politics is biased and subjective.

Except mine, of course.  ;)
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead