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Democrat Strategy vs. Trump

Started by Sylar, March 01, 2017, 09:24:13 PM

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trdsf

Quote from: Sylar on March 28, 2017, 05:25:33 PM
Not sure how reliable this is, considering it hasn't been picked up by major news outlets:

(snipperooski)
It's plausible; McConnell can certainly count votes and figure factions on his side of the aisle, and he's got no margin for error considering how closely divided the Senate is, and he certainly hasn't got any better ideas than Trumpcare with which to replace Obamacare.

I think the larger point is yes, the GOP spent seven years pissing and moaning about the ACA, and complaining about how it allegedly doesn't work when their own obstructionism is most of the reason for problems with the ACA... and what they've just learned is that it's a lot easier to piss and moan than it is to actually do.

And this was supposed to be the easy one for them.  Now they want to do tax reform?  Pass the popcorn, this'll be fun to watch.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Solomon Zorn

Quote from: Sylar on March 29, 2017, 12:31:18 AM
Indeed; the article posted in my OP also touches about this subject. People always blame the president whether he was at fault or not -- and it is with this mindset that Democrats need to draft their strategy to win 2018 elections (and beyond).

Which brings me to:

It is not that I'm a heartless asshole Solomon, or that I do not share your sentiment. I do.

But if we want a winning strategy, then Trump (first) and GOP (second) must fail. Say what you want about McConnell, but he is superb at political strategy -- and this is his.

I'm going to use words of someone unexpected to support this strategy. Trump writes in The Art of the Deal:

"You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on."

If Trump fails to deliver, the marginal voters that elected him will vote against him in 2020 (and against GOP in 2018).
You seem to have mistaken me for a Democrat. While I support more Democratic policies, than any other party, I would prefer not to sign-up with any particular group. It's not "the right thing to do," just because a party says it's right. I can think for myself.

If the Republicans were to, hypothetically, do a 180, and become the ones that represent me, then I would vote Republican.

It's running the country that matters. What you are advocating, is to continue this perpetual cycle of polarized obstructionism. We build it up, they tear it down.

But in the long run it's all moot. In the end, they had to face up to how grim the real-life consequences would be, if they implemented their draconian Trumpcare bill, and some of them didn't have the stomach for it. Others didn't think it was quite cutthroat enough. So Obamacare continues...
If God Exists, Why Does He Pretend Not to Exist?
Poetry and Proverbs of the Uneducated Hick

http://www.solomonzorn.com

Cavebear

Quote from: Solomon Zorn on March 29, 2017, 02:21:37 AM
You seem to have mistaken me for a Democrat. While I support more Democratic policies, than any other party, I would prefer not to sign-up with any particular group. It's not "the right thing to do," just because a party says it's right. I can think for myself.

If the Republicans were to, hypothetically, do a 180, and become the ones that represent me, then I would vote Republican.

It's running the country that matters. What you are advocating, is to continue this perpetual cycle of polarized obstructionism. We build it up, they tear it down.

But in the long run it's all moot. In the end, they had to face up to how grim the real-life consequences would be, if they implemented their draconian Trumpcare bill, and some of them didn't have the stomach for it. Others didn't think it was quite cutthroat enough. So Obamacare continues...

I also consider myself of neither party.  I do vote Democratic mostly, but only because the  candidates are usually more aligned to what I want to see happen. 
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

SGOS

Quote from: Sylar on March 28, 2017, 05:25:33 PM
I can only conclude from this that they never had a plan. It was always much easier to be against whatever Obama was for.
Obstructionist politics is the new wave in Republican strategy.  What they don't realize is that it only works when you're not in charge.

SGOS

Quote from: Solomon Zorn on March 29, 2017, 02:21:37 AM
It's not "the right thing to do," just because a party says it's right.
I'm amazed when I watch friends of mine latch on to an absolutely horrible idea because it's being pushed by Democrats.  They act like they have thought it through and worked it out themselves, and they even give reasons why they support it.  But it starts to become clear that they aren't thinking for themselves when their supportive statements are nothing more than the half baked talking points handed to the public by party members in "bumper sticker format" on the evening news shows.

I expect this from Republicans, but when I see my friends doing it, it's a chilling dose of reality that tells me how much like sheep we are.  It's an ominous reminder that we the public will always be under someone else's thumb, and that we probably deserve to be there.

PopeyesPappy

Quote from: fencerider on March 29, 2017, 01:09:12 AM
Pappy really??? Apparently you never heard about a non-profit organization as one of the biggest ways to increase your bottom line. Come on now. The CEOs of non-profits are taking home as many billions of dollars as CEOs of for-profit business.

The 23% margin is figured out after the executive board members take their cut.

Medical insurance may be a really low margin because that was what the ACA was all about.


single payer will not work as long as the hospitals and big Pharma set the prices. Its easier said than done when everybody in Congress has been brown-nosin wall st for the last 40 years.

80/20 rule for insurance
80/20 rule for hospitals (80 for dr, nurse, and certified techs / 20 for profit and admin)
price control for pharmacy (say max charge 250% of production cost)
price control for medical school
price control for medical supply companies
easier path for foreign drs to certify in US
anti-trust lawsuite to break up AMA
.... and we should join the rest of the civilized world in sending people to prison who make a profit off healthcare (i.e. owners of hospitals, insurance, biotech)

Needless to say wall st has their hands so far up Congress they will never do it. Most likely there wont be any affordable health care for the US without a major change of attitude. I wonder what would happen if members of Congress were denied any kind of health insurance until they fix the system; whine like a bunch of babies?

I have a pretty good idea how non-profits operate. I've worked with several over the years. The Southwest Research Institute being one example. Yes these organizations turn a profit, but they aren't allowed to pay out those to investors. Instead those profits are reinvested in the organization and used for charitable work.

Yes there are some small savings that could be gained from limiting the compensation of executives. In the scheme of things those savings are small. Much smaller than the already small (but not insignificant) savings available from cutting profit margins. One reason for this that many fail to realize is much of the compensation these people receive is in the form of stock options. Stock options have very little effect on the bottom line of these companies because for the most part they don't cost the companies anything.

I've already discussed several of the increased cost drivers for the american healthcare system. Here are a few more. Most of these probably have more effect on the cost of US healthcare than executive compensation and corporate profits.

1.   Americans. On average we live less healthy life styles than “they” do. This leads to higher rates of chronic illness such as diabetes, heart disease and cancer. Chronic illnesses such as these require treatment more often and the treatment is expensive. It drives up costs. I’d like to say you can't fix stupid and we’re just fucked, but in this case I don’t believe that. Better education could fix a lot of this part of the problem. Unfortunately fixing our education system is a separate expensive problem. Plus we’re at least a generation away from raising a generation of kids that aren’t too stupid to take care of themselves enough to significantly lower rates of chronic illness. BTW our high rates of chronic illness is why life expectancy here is slightly lower than some other places.
2.   Our healthcare system may be broken, but the healthcare that is available in the US to those that can afford it is second to nowhere. Which brings us to expensive technologies and procedures. Americans are diagnosed and treated with expensive technologies and treatments more often than “they” are. An example of this is the use of MRIs in diagnostics. According to the OECD data Americans get MRIs twice as often as “they” do.
3.   Excessive administrative costs driven by regulation compliance and overly complicated government and insurance company billing systems.
4.     Fraud. Both in the form of people and insurers being billed for services not provided/needed, and hackers. I'm Running out of time here, but I'll expand on the last one later.
     
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.

PopeyesPappy

OK then, Fraud. Hackers in particular are costing the US healthcare system billions. One form of this is the rapidly growing problem of ransomware. These are for the most part common criminals. Many of them are of the international variety. The expense here comes in the form of paying to get your data back, paying government fines for allowing your data to be breached (also part of the excessive administrative costs of dealing with government regulation) and trying to protect an aging and often cobbled together from disparate systems IT infrastructure.

Another hacker problem is international espionage. The fucking Russians, and probably others like the North Koreans and Iranians, are hacking into healthcare provider and insurance company billing systems for the express purpose of dicking around with the billing codes. Before you ask I don't know this for a fact. I've never seen it mentioned in the news, but I am being told this is true by people I've known for a long time that have a small company who are working with both the healthcare industry and the government to develop a solution for this problem. This company is being financed in part through investments by the healthcare industry. They are being told by the healthcare industry it is happening. The government is providing information on how it is happening. I doubt if the the healthcare industry would be investing millions in this small company in the hopes they can develop a solution for a problem that doesn't exist so I feel pretty safe assuming it is true.   

As I have said repeatedly we, the United States of America, can't afford a single payer system until we can bring down the overall cost of healthcare. Last year the US spent as much on healthcare as the entire federal budget. Adding the millions of people that currently can't afford healthcare is going to add to drive per capita cost even higher. Reducing corporate profit margins could help a little, but not enough to make the system viable over the long term. Not even enough to make up the difference for providing healthcare to those that currently can't afford it.
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.

Hydra009

Quote from: Solomon Zorn on March 29, 2017, 02:21:37 AMYou seem to have mistaken me for a Democrat. While I support more Democratic policies, than any other party, I would prefer not to sign-up with any particular group.
That's essentially why I threw in with the Dems - they more closely match my positions on the issues than any other party out there.

QuoteIf the Republicans were to, hypothetically, do a 180, and become the ones that represent me, then I would vote Republican.
As would I, but they're not going to, so I'm not going to.

trdsf

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 29, 2017, 12:03:28 PM
That's essentially why I threw in with the Dems - they more closely match my positions on the issues than any other party out there.
As would I, but they're not going to, so I'm not going to.
Funny thing is, the Republican Party that had room for Nelson Rockefeller, Lowell Weicker, Charles Mathias, John Anderson, Howard Baker, hell, even George Bush the elder before Reagan & Co made him drink the Kool-Ade, that was a party that I could (and did) occasionally support.

That became impossible after a) the drift towards being not merely conservative but genuinely reactionary set in, and b) they became more and more explicitly a fundamentalist christian party.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Solomon Zorn

I still have a great deal of respect for John McCain.
If God Exists, Why Does He Pretend Not to Exist?
Poetry and Proverbs of the Uneducated Hick

http://www.solomonzorn.com

PopeyesPappy

#115
Last year the government spent $1.1 trillion on healthcare. The total cost of healthcare in the US last year was $3.33 trillion. Just for shits and giggles let's take a look at what it would take for the US government to raise the $2.2 trillion difference. This doesn't even take into account providing healthcare to those that currently don't have it.

This spreadsheet is a representative sample of 10,000 federal income tax paying households. There are about 137,910,000 federal income tax paying households in the US so if you multiple the taxes of these households by 13,791 you get a number close to what you would get from everyone.



The net federal tax rate across all households would have to go from the current average rate of 19.1% to 48.8% to raise an additional $2.2 trillion dollars. That's 48.8% on top of 15.6% social security and medicare taxes plus whatever you pay in state, local and sales taxes. We'd be looking at a averaged tax rate in the neighborhood of 70% just to pay for what we have now. That doesn't even include adding the people that don't have insurance now. Even lower income people would be have to be hit hard to raise that kind of revenue. Because while lower income households don't make much money there are a lot more of them. You can't drop their federal rate much more than 40% without pushing the higher brackets above 100%. There just aren't enough rich people to make up the difference...

edited to add the original starting point numbers.

Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.

Baruch

#116
Quote from: trdsf on March 29, 2017, 01:01:30 PM
Funny thing is, the Republican Party that had room for Nelson Rockefeller, Lowell Weicker, Charles Mathias, John Anderson, Howard Baker, hell, even George Bush the elder before Reagan & Co made him drink the Kool-Ade, that was a party that I could (and did) occasionally support.

That became impossible after a) the drift towards being not merely conservative but genuinely reactionary set in, and b) they became more and more explicitly a fundamentalist christian party.

In the 60s, the Republicans worked at getting moderates like Nixon in, and reactionaries like John Birch Society ... out.  William F Buckley tried to articulate an intelligent conservative position.  But with Watergate and the Southern Strategy, it was Strom Thurmond all the way down the shit hole.  Now that they are below the out house, fill it with dirt, before they climb out :-0

Pops ... don't worry, the Fed can just turn on the spigot to the helicopter money, give us all million dollar SNAP cards.  No need to raise taxes, why do you think we have wars of choice?
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Cavebear

Quote from: Solomon Zorn on March 29, 2017, 01:39:56 PM
I still have a great deal of respect for John McCain.

I know what you mean,  McCain annoys me 80% of the time, but I know he means what he says.  Honesty matters.  I'll respect that more than 90% of the House and Senate members who won't say the sun rises in the East.
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Solomon Zorn

Quote from: Baruch on March 29, 2017, 06:32:37 PM
In the 60s, the Republicans worked at getting moderates like Nixon in, and reactionaries like John Birch Society ... out.  William F Buckley tried to articulate an intelligent conservative position.  But with Watergate and the Southern Strategy, it was Strom Thurmond all the way down the shit hole.  Now that they are below the out house, fill it with dirt, before they climb out :-0
Can I get an AMEN?

Just to piss you off, I'm going to point out that the current economic prosperity(it's there - don't believe the hype), is due to Clinton's policies, nearly nullified by G.W.Bush, and recovered by drastic measures, taken early in the Obama administration.
If God Exists, Why Does He Pretend Not to Exist?
Poetry and Proverbs of the Uneducated Hick

http://www.solomonzorn.com

FaithIsFilth

Quote from: Cavebear on March 31, 2017, 05:04:23 AM
I know what you mean,  McCain annoys me 80% of the time, but I know he means what he says.  Honesty matters.  I'll respect that more than 90% of the House and Senate members who won't say the sun rises in the East.
The man is completely losing it. A couple weeks ago he accused Rand Paul of working for Vladimir Putin, with no evidence whatsoever to back up his statement. Very inappropriate behaviour, calling out someone as a traitor with nothing to back it up.