Polls Missing the Call

[SGOS]

While higher then expected turnout among white voters without a college degree looks like the early front runner for what the polls missed, it could simply be that 1% of Trump voters switched away from Clinton too late for the polls to notice.

That could have happened, but what I perceive about party politics is that people don't switch.  They more often accommodate, rationalize, or deny what they find to be dissonant about their candidates.   Independents will switch, which is what makes them independents.  Are you talking about independents or actual Democrats switching sides?  People don't jump ship from a party very often.  There is an ocean of ideology involved in party politics that would require a lot of massive changes in attitude to simply walk away from the current standard bearer.

[Baruch]

I will never trust polls again.

A man your age?  About time!

[Poison Tree]

Are you talking about independents or actual Democrats switching sides?

I'd guess a mix. Probably mostly independents but also Democrats--especially white and less educated Democrats. The New York Times Exit polls, if they are still worth anything, show Trump picking up 9% of Democrats (up 5% from 2012) compared to Clinton's 7% of Republicans (up 4% from 2012)--although Clinton took 15% of conservatives against Trump's 10% of liberals.

[Baruch]

The conservatives who switched to Hillary, were butt hurt that they couldn't continue the Bush Dynasty with JEB.

[SGOS]

The New York Times Exit polls, if they are still worth anything, show Trump picking up 9% of Democrats (up 5% from 2012).

I never would have guessed it was that high.  I assume they were protest votes.  I'd like to understand the personal psychology involved, for no other reason than just being nosey, I guess.

[Baruch]

 

I never would have guessed it was that high.  I assume they were protest votes.  I'd like to understand the personal psychology involved, for no other reason than just being nosey, I guess.

Hypothesis ... butt hurt Bernie supporters ... and many Democrats aren't Leftist refugees from Woodstock.

[SGOS]

Hypothesis ... butt hurt Bernie supporters ... and many Democrats aren't Leftist refugees from Woodstock.

Had Sanders won the nomination, how many Hillary supporters would have voted for Trump?

[Baruch]

Had Sanders won the nomination, how many Hillary supporters would have voted for Trump?

!. No Republicans would have crossed over to support Bernie

2. What is left of the old Democrat party would have probably stayed home, rather than vote for Trump

[SGOS]

What is left of the old Democrat party would have probably stayed home, rather than vote for Trump

They have been calling for party loyalty.  Some may jump ship, I suppose, or just let it sink.

[Poison Tree]

I'd like to understand the personal psychology involved, for no other reason than just being nosey, I guess.

If I had to guess, and it would be a guess, I'd say that they were largely less educated whites from the 'rust belt' who liked Trump's pledge to bring back coal/fracking/manufacturing jobs and his correlated anti-free trade, anti-immigration, anti-EPA policies.

[Unbeliever]

I think, after the big "surprise" of election day, many people will be surprised again, when Trump doesn't manage to deliver on any of his campaign promises - no wall, no indictment of Clinton, no Muslim ban, no repeal of the ACA, no revamping of trade policies, etc. 

My hope is that Trump will show his true colors as a liberal, and be a much better president than anyone expects.

Perhaps a futile hope, especially for a pessimist such as myself.

[Unbeliever]

A man your age?  About time!

Yeah, politics puts a whole new spin on "poll dancing."

[Baruch]

My dad, when he was a teen, went door to door taking polls.  He was taught way back then (during WW II) that you can elicit whatever response you want, from a citizen, by rephrasing the same question.  Ah yes, poll taking is so scientific ... like Houdini!

[GSOgymrat]

I think, after the big "surprise" of election day, many people will be surprised again, when Trump doesn't manage to deliver on any of his campaign promises - no wall, no indictment of Clinton, no Muslim ban, no repeal of the ACA, no revamping of trade policies, etc. 

My hope is that Trump will show his true colors as a liberal, and be a much better president than anyone expects.

Perhaps a futile hope, especially for a pessimist such as myself.

Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan said yesterday repealing the Affordable Care Act is a high priority and I would bet money the ACA will be repealed and replaced, with what I don't know.

Trump has already planned a trip to China to purchase their wall. :-)

[Cavebear]

The nature of the electoral college is helping to amplify how much the polls appear to be off. As 538 points out, if 1 out of every 100 Trump voters had voted Clinton instead then Clinton would have won 307 electoral votes, the polls would have nailed the popular vote and correctly called every state except North Carolina. While higher then expected turnout among white voters without a college degree looks like the early front runner for what the polls missed, it could simply be that 1% of Trump voters switched away from Clinton too late for the polls to notice.

The Electoral College system has been ruined through State Gerrymandering.  That has to be corrected or there will never be rational voting again.