Author Topic: War over polls intensifies  (Read 8233 times)

Offline SGOS

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #60 on: November 03, 2016, 07:02:52 PM »
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But that where a lot of gamers started.  You could use software to copy games, play games, and learn your way around a computer for office programs.    My first spreadsheet was Commodore's Multiplan and I forget the name of the database (DBase?).  When we got Excel and Access, I was off and running before my co-workers had a clue!  And they never caught up.  And not because I had the head start, but because they just weren't interested in the possibilities of computers.  To most of them, a computer was just a fancy typewriter or sometimes an accounting sheet.


Back then, I worked with a woman who was quite computer literate, granted she had a literary background, but I remember saying, "People think the future of computers will be in math.  But it won't be.  It will be in word processing."  Well, I dunno.  I didn't know what to expect.  I suppose you could make a case for that now, but there is a hell of a lot going on in math.  It's more than just word processing or math.  I think of it mostly as data.  It may well be that most people use it for word processing and I have to admit it's great, but data processing and it's spread to all sorts of other things like photography and cell phones and navigation seem more important to me.

Offline AllPurposeAtheist

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #61 on: November 03, 2016, 08:41:32 PM »
Public opinion polls are for all intents and purposes utterly useless so I almost always ignore them.
If you're on any of the political mailing lists you'll notice that they've become more and more targeted so much so that successful campaigns can and do drill down in the data to send you a very personalized email message. While it may appear that the candidate is writing to you and only you they of course are not, but neither are they using a shotgun approach any more. It's really an outgrowth of what was called mail merge, but is using very specified data to target very specific groups.
Good article about it is/was on dk recently.
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They can now track very specifically what news sites you've been reading on down to your Facebook feeds and to some extent your posts you've made or clicked the 'like' button to make a great guess exactly how you will likely vote or whether you plan to vote at all. They've likely predicted that I won't vote because in the past few years I've moved from Ohio to Texas back to Ohio and now to South Carolina, but I'm likely to contribute some amount of money to particular campaigns which from where I live now is the better investment being it's almost certain that all of the electoral votes of South Carolina will go to Trump, but I can and do contribute some amount of money to campaigns elsewhere. The data can pick up on this so the vast majority of the email I receive is asking for money to targeted campaigns.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2016, 08:53:26 PM by AllPurposeAtheist »
All hail my new signature!

Admit it. You're secretly green with envy.

Offline Cavebear

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #62 on: November 06, 2016, 02:10:19 AM »
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Public opinion polls are for all intents and purposes utterly useless so I almost always ignore them.
If you're on any of the political mailing lists you'll notice that they've become more and more targeted so much so that successful campaigns can and do drill down in the data to send you a very personalized email message. While it may appear that the candidate is writing to you and only you they of course are not, but neither are they using a shotgun approach any more. It's really an outgrowth of what was called mail merge, but is using very specified data to target very specific groups.
Good article about it is/was on dk recently.
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
They can now track very specifically what news sites you've been reading on down to your Facebook feeds and to some extent your posts you've made or clicked the 'like' button to make a great guess exactly how you will likely vote or whether you plan to vote at all. They've likely predicted that I won't vote because in the past few years I've moved from Ohio to Texas back to Ohio and now to South Carolina, but I'm likely to contribute some amount of money to particular campaigns which from where I live now is the better investment being it's almost certain that all of the electoral votes of South Carolina will go to Trump, but I can and do contribute some amount of money to campaigns elsewhere. The data can pick up on this so the vast majority of the email I receive is asking for money to targeted campaigns.

I avoid the campaigns.  I don't respond to mailings, and I have NoMoRoBO set on my phone.  I never answer the phone unless someone leaves a voice mail.  And IF I get a political voice mail, I delete it immediately.  The political campaigns can't find me.  I never donate.  I am the blank part of their data...  LOL!
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Offline Hydra009

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2016, 08:12:40 AM »
According to 538, it looks like Trump might snag the previously Dem-leaning states of Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.  :(

If Clinton were to get any of them, it'd guarantee victory.  That's looking less likely than it was a couple weeks ago.  She's still likely to win, just by a slimmer margin.  If the race gets much tighter, it might be anyone's game.

This election is shaping up to be distressingly close.

Offline Cavebear

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2016, 08:21:15 AM »
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According to 538, it looks like Trump might snag the previously Dem-leaning states of Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.  :(

If Clinton were to get any of them, it'd guarantee victory.  That's looking less likely than it was a couple weeks ago.  She's still likely to win, just by a slimmer margin.  If the race gets much tighter, it might be anyone's game.

This election is shaping up to be distressingly close.

The reports *I*ve heard  say that  if Clinton wins NC, you can go to bed. The election is over.
Atheist born, atheist bred.  And when I die, atheist dead!

Offline Hydra009

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2016, 08:59:15 AM »
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The reports *I*ve heard  say that  if Clinton wins NC, you can go to bed. The election is over.
Looks like I'm going to be up all night, then.  The latest NC polls are very, very close with Trump gaining a slight edge.

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Re: How many have received Poll calls and answered them
« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2016, 09:28:06 AM »
So I answered the phone yesterday to another pollster call.  Its been a couple of weeks.  One thing that stands out is they keep asking for me by first name.  My phone number is unlisted and when it was published (many years ago) it gave only my first initial.  So they are getting my direct number from someone I was required to give it to - I am thinking it is the union I used to belong to. 

Anyways, I have been contacted 3 or 4 times (when I answered the phone).  The callers id themselves as some type of pollster, but I cannot remember the names now.  None of them were like Gallup or localTV/newspaper.

I am curious about contact levels.  Has anyone asked any of you?

Anyways the question are - Presidential only (some surveys ask about many races):

1. Have you been contacted for voter survey?
1a. How many times?
2.  Did you answer questions or decline to be surveyed?
3.  If you answered, did you pick a candidate or answer undecided.  NOTE I am not asking which candidate, only curious about contact levels.
4.  Have you filled out online voter surveys?

My answers

1. Yes
1a.  3 or 4
2. No - declined
3. Optional - because I declined -  I think I would have answered undecided or 3rd party.  If pressed about 3rd party I am not sure if I would have said undecided or picked a name or said going with write in.
4. No



Offline SGOS

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2016, 09:31:20 AM »
I am very seldom polled, and I prefer not to be.  I don't know if I'm helping or hurting.  Mostly, I expect pollsters to have an agenda beyond seeking information.

Offline SGOS

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #68 on: November 06, 2016, 10:38:22 AM »
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Quote
Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the closing days of the presidential race, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows.

It's odd that polls change as much as they do warranting additional polling from the same sources.  I'm not sure why it happens, and I don't understand why people would change their minds at the last minute.  Are they just getting around to taking an interest in candidates because the election is now days away?  Are they basing conclusions on October surprises?  At this point the news coverage doesn't really deal with candidates historical positions on issues, and the news is more about things don't really affect us at a practical level.  Hillary being investigated by the FBI isn't new news.  Knowing that Trump was pushed off the stage by security isn't helpful either.


Offline Hydra009

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2016, 10:50:52 AM »
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It's odd that polls change as much as they do warranting additional polling from the same sources.  I'm not sure why it happens, and I don't understand why people would change their minds at the last minute.  Are they just getting around to taking an interest in candidates because the election is now days away?
Elections naturally narrow towards the end, but there might be a bit more at play in this instance.  I think the October surprise might've temporarily embarrassed some Trump supporters to the point that they were less likely to tell pollsters that they backed Trump.  But after the initial shock wore off and Election Day neared, they're more willing to be candid about their preference.  Trump's right about being able to shoot someone and not lose support.

Offline Hydra009

Re: War over polls intensifies
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2016, 11:12:07 AM »
Addendum:

There may have also been a couple missteps by the Clinton camp

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This ad in particular looks like it was intentionally designed to disgust Millennials.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 11:53:31 AM by Hydra009 »

 

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