http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/cruel-key-individual-prosperity-choosing-right-ancestors/
QuoteEditor’s Note: If you think you’re too short, you should have chosen taller parents. Thankfully, inherited physical traits, like height or eye color, aren’t often considered predictors of future socioeconomic success. In America, we’re taught that your social status, unlike your stature, can rise; it’s not pre-determined.
But what if social status is inherited, just like stature? In that world, surnames would be a pretty good indicator at birth of future social mobility. That is our world, says economic historian Gregory Clark. He makes that case in one of the most provocative economics books of the year, “The Son Also Rises,†using surname-based intergenerational inequality correlations.
Over the past week, Making Sen$e has featured Paul Solman’s never-before-published conversation with Clark about his 2007 book, “A Farewell to Alms,†broken into five parts. Clark traces economic history, beginning with hunter-gatherers, and argues that in England, where the Industrial Revolution was born, the takeoff was due, above all, to “the survival of the richest.â€
That argument, like the one we present today, strikes at the heart of the belief in equal opportunity for economic growth and social mobility. “We can predict the majority of status variation among people at birth just from their lineage,†Clark writes. In other words, our society’s divergence of fortunes â€" which as Clark points out, isn’t just about income, but also social status â€" is relatively fixed. That’s something no one ever wants to talk about.
Clark is here to talk about it, and to explain the implications for public policy of a world where, he thinks, social mobility is, and is likely to remain, slow.
â€" Simone Pathe, Making Sen$e Editor
Everything we thought we knew about social mobility is wrong. And the evidence is hiding in plain sight. Just look at our surnames. Surname evidence suggests social mobility rates are slow, and impervious to social policy. Practically speaking, this means the poor will be much better served by policies to reduce the inequality of social outcomes than by those designed to speed up social mobility.
What we thought we knew was that high rates of social mobility were possible, but only achieved by some societies; that nurture mattered more than nature in social outcomes; that the right social policies could generate near equality of opportunity; that the U.S. was a laggard when it came to such policies; and that the right policies would eliminate in the U.S. the legacies of past disadvantage within two to three generations.
A study of the changing social status of surnames across many societies and epochs, however, dashes all such fond hopes. There is, everywhere, social mobility. All elites eventually get replaced. All underclasses eventually rise. Unfortunately, the process happens over a very long timeframe: many generations, in fact. The study of surnames shows that in the near term, social mobility rates are everywhere low and utterly unaffected by social policy; the pattern of mobility is consistent with nature rather than nurture being the main determinant of social status.
The hard truth is that underlying social status is inherited from parents as strongly and mechanically as height. This iron law of status means there is no way that a merit or incentive system can be used to justify a winner-take-all society.
Social mobility rates can be summarized by one number: the degree to which the social outcomes of children â€" earnings, education, wealth and health â€" correlate with that of their parents. The closer that correlation is to zero, the less family, lineage, race and ethnicity matter to the next generation. All is possible at birth. The closer that number is to one (in essence, 100 percent) the more status is predictable from family circumstances alone. Birth is fate.
The figure below, adapted from egalitarian economist Miles Corak, summarizes the conventional wisdom, as seen in estimates of the correlation between income inequality within families and in the economy as a whole across various countries. The correlation varies greatly. But where the income distribution is more unequal, the correlation between the economic status of children and their parents is higher. The correlation is low in prosperous, egalitarian Nordic economies, but high in in-egalitarian and poor Latin America. At the extreme, outcomes in countries like Sweden seem largely unpredictable at birth. There seems to be near equality of opportunity. (The U.S. lies in the middle both in terms of social mobility and in inequality.)
(http://www.pbs.org/newshour/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Clark.Intergenerational-Income-Correlations.2-1024x708.png)
The varying strength of conventional status inheritance across countries suggests that institutions control social mobility rates, and that many societies have suboptimal social mobility rates. By this argument, nurture, not nature, determines social success and social policy is the answer. In particular in the U.S., many children of talent are denied their potential by the circumstances of their families, according to this story. The U.S. is failing children from disadvantaged families. So, in general, is any society with high inequality. But as it turns out, that’s far from the whole story.
Conventional social mobility estimates look at only the inheritance of individual aspects of social status, such as income, across single generations.
How your income correlates with your parents’ income turns out to be a very imperfect measure of how your underlying social status correlates with theirs. The most famous philosopher of the 20th century, Ludwig Wittgenstein, maintained high social status despite giving away all the money left to him by his father, the steel magnate Karl. The crucial point is that a lot of what is conventionally estimated as social mobility is just the froth around much more slowly changing underlying social status.
The key to why the correlations are misleading is not that they are based on income, but that the current measures mainly capture random transitory fluctuations in income and wealth at the individual level. But for elite groups as a whole, the systematic downwards movement of income or wealth or education is much lower.
A different approach is to use the average status of surnames distinctive enough to track families across generations. Using surnames, we can measure the inheritance of that underlying status between single generations, and also over multiple generations.
Take supposedly mobile Sweden, for example. Conventional estimates imply that social mobility among Swedes should wipe out all past advantages and disadvantages within three generations, reminiscent of the 19th century English adage, “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.†But consider the name Leijonhufvud, for example. It is a Swedish name created for a family ennobled more than 300 years ago, 10 generations in the past. According to the conventional notion of Swedish social mobility, Leijonhufvuds today should be no more distinguished than Swedes bearing surnames of low-class origin such as Andersson.
But Leijonhufvuds remain significantly wealthier and more educated. They live in fancier suburbs. Their social status has survived for three centuries. Measured through surname status, contemporary Sweden has rates of underlying social mobility that are extremely slow, and no higher than in pre-industrial Sweden or medieval England.
The result of my research is that this same strong conservation across generations of surname status is seen everywhere: in Thatcher’s England, in Tony Blair’s England, in medieval England, in Industrial Revolution England, in the huddled masses of the U.S., in Communist China, in capitalist Taiwan, in socially homogenous Japan, in the Chile of Pinochet and the Chile of Allende. Indeed there seems to be a universal constant rate of social mobility, with the few exceptions being even more immobile societies such as India. This rate is so slow that it implies that we can predict the majority of status variation among people at birth just from their lineage. The figure below shows this pattern.
Longer article. Please read. Overall I agree with the thesis of the article. This can be restated in a lot of ways- advantage begets advantage, inheritance both financially and by privilege is a key determinant in the eventual outcome of social status and income. In the U.S. we see families like the Trumps, Kochs, Limbaughs (yes, Russ comes from privilege. His dad was a judge). and other families that impart status at birth and the money to go with it.
There are exceptions, perhaps minor, but in my case it holds true generationally. I am one of only two of 8 siblings that achieved a college degree. All 3 of my brothers and my father served in the military. My sister married a mailman and their son became a mailman. My (combined) retirement income is just over $50,000 a year, which puts me dead smack in the middle of the middle class. One brother was a school teacher, another a civil servant like me.
If there is a variant, it would be the level of intellectualism and/or focus on goals provided to the children by the parents. A wealthy child strictly raised to accept the mantle of wealth (think royal family in England, or the Walton family) versus a child raised in wealth that only succeeds because of the parents (Paris Hilton) We see sob stories of movie stars/rock stars/ celebrities that become very wealthy and then blow it all on mansions and trinkets. To a degree that is almost predictable, because they lack the "breeding" to deal with the wealth acquired. Had they been taught to understand and utilize the newfound wealth, it would not happen.
The Kochs inherited their wealth and apparently want everybody beneath them to be servants or minions. Donald Trump, trumpeting (sorry) himself as a self made man, inherited 100 million from his father. The irony is in my version of the real world, he would be a useless individual.
I would like to get input from the Brits on here, because in their society the class system is more pronounced than in the U. S.
I'm not enthused about these studies. Sure you can point to the Bushes and the Kennedys, but what about Bill Clinton who comes from a blue-collar working family, or Obama from a single mom who was a waitress? There are too many exceptions to real cut a knife through: Nature or nurture seems to me to be another egg-chicken question.
It depends on whether you want to call it the preponderance of evidence or not, and I'm sure reading the book would provide reinforcement of the thesis. But in the case of Clinton, he was a Rhodes scholar, so obviously took advantage of what opportunities were available. Same could be said for many others. But I think across the board based on statistical numbers- hopefully you read the article- it would hold true overall.
You could also argue that Irish immigrants, for example, had a better shot at upward mobility in America. But Kennedy- of Irish stock- made his money from running booze during the depression. Rank and file of the Irish wound up as cops, firefighters and the like. And the Italians to some extent followed suit. The Italian mob stock came from Sicily, just like their predecessors.
And social inertia is a factor. It is easier for an Irishman in New York City born of a firefighter to continue the "legacy" and become a firefighter. Much harder to get a degree and pursue a career in law, for example. In the case of Clinton, a man born with a high IQ and aspirations of greatness- look at his brother. A neer do well embarrassment. Or Jimmy Carter, son of a peanut farmer becoming a Lieutenant Commander in the Navy and then governor, etc. with a neer do well brother. Kind of a pattern there.
I was sure this would generate some argument.
With the Clintons, it isn't always who your parents were, but who you know who is taking care of your career. Also with Obama, a pet of the Pritzger family and a devotee of Kissinger. With the Clintons, they early came under the wing of Pamela Harriman formerly Pamela Churchill. As Pamela Harriman, she was the uncrowned queen of the DINOs back in the day. As Pamela Churchill, she was the first daughter in law of Winston. Winston is still seducing the US two degrees removed, in Mrs Clinton. How did Pamela Churchill do it? She was the most famous paramour of Europe and the US ... among those who knew.
Quote from: Baruch on September 26, 2015, 06:40:24 AM
With the Clintons, it isn't always who your parents were, but who you know who is taking care of your career. Also with Obama, a pet of the Pritzger family and a devotee of Kissinger. With the Clintons, they early came under the wing of Pamela Harriman formerly Pamela Churchill. As Pamela Harriman, she was the uncrowned queen of the DINOs back in the day. As Pamela Churchill, she was the first daughter in law of Winston. Winston is still seducing the US two degrees removed, in Mrs Clinton. How did Pamela Churchill do it? She was the most famous paramour of Europe and the US ... among those who knew.
Don't know if Clinton or Jimmy Carter are the exception that proves the rule or whatever, but from personal experience-however myopic that might be- the basic concept of the article rings true to me. I have known/seen too many examples that fit the mold. Still deciding if I want to read the book or not, but probably won't. Too many items on my plate already.
Generally the social aspect of advancement is even more obscure than the genetic component. The social networking part happens in the US in board rooms and country clubs. In the case of Winston, you have both ... his father was a scion of an old money family (200 years powerful) and his mother was a social climbing American girl of the neuveau riche. But his upbringing was marginal in spite of that, because his parents weren't interested in him and he suffered emotionally all his life because of that. Mozart was irregularly brilliant too, and had massive problems with his father. Of course it is possible that both were high-functioning autistic. Mozart had humble origins, but his father's marketing campaign took his son to all the best courts in Europe at a young age.
Also it is well known that the grandchildren of the formerly successful are often downwardly mobile. One can assist this with serious estate taxes.
I think the conclusion is based mostly on statistics, with all the limitations implied. The problem with statistics is that numbers don't quantify the human condition and there are exceptions in every conceivable category. But in a general sense, I still agree with the article. I'm not going to try to analyze individuals that might be considered exceptions because you could spend years doing that, and not arrive at a different conclusion.
In some ways I am an exception to the rule, being not Mormon, college educated and an atheist. No other member of my family fits in those groups, but many of them fit into their groups in terms of religion, education and jobs or careers. I can point to specific reasons why I turned out differently, but it's safe to say my upbringing and life were atypical.
I doubt it very much this was scientific study. I vote to put in in the trash bin. :lol:
I'm not emotionally connected to it, so by all means petition the mods.
Relax, I was just kidding.
Whatever.
For someone who comes from a country with a god given Monarchy on a class system determined by birth i can only agree with the article.
The "rags to rich" stories only end up well if you actually marry someone with a "title"
Quote from: Siberia on July 14, 2016, 07:03:54 AM
For someone who comes from a country with a god given Monarchy on a class system determined by birth i can only agree with the article.
The "rags to rich" stories only end up well if you actually marry someone with a "title"
One thing that supposedly should happen in a true democracy (which Spain doesn't have) is equality not based on beginning social status or inherited status. Unfortunately over time, even beginning with a equal footing (egalitarian) there will be people who take advantage of both wealth and status to alter that in their favor. The Kennedys, Morgans, whoever over here and Carlos' family over there, people in power will naturally assert their financial and social dominance for the sake of their family and peers.
There is no form of government from full blown socialism to full blown capitalism that can preclude that, because there will always be people in power in one form or another who will move to upgrade their status or that of their family and peers.
Totally agree, and funny story there was a tiny anarco/Capitalist (don't know if that is a thing in English, but is like the Vienna School of Economics) that presented an idea of banning inherited wealth until a certain age, to make sure people only got what they deserve according to their personal efforts.
Of course, the idea was filled with holes and the party vanished, but it was fun to watch.
I'm still amazed at the number of US citizens (to who i spoke about this on my few trips there) who deny that born privileges (class, money, status, connections, etc.) play a major role in general opportunities of success
Quote from: Siberia on July 14, 2016, 12:09:52 PM
Totally agree, and funny story there was a tiny anarco/Capitalist (don't know if that is a thing in English, but is like the Vienna School of Economics) that presented an idea of banning inherited wealth until a certain age, to make sure people only got what they deserve according to their personal efforts.
Of course, the idea was filled with holes and the party vanished, but it was fun to watch.
I'm still amazed at the number of US citizens (to who i spoke about this on my few trips there) who deny that born privileges (class, money, status, connections, etc.) play a major role in general opportunities of success
Doesn't surprise me. I grew up in rank poverty and can quite literally tell you where every dollar I've ever possessed came from. I'm lucky to be where I am financially, and have fortunately had a successful life, all told. But there are any number of people who are flipping burgers in fast food joints who swear up and down that America is the land of opportunity. :biggrin:
Social networking = good. Participating in a clique = bad. See? Change a single word and it's all good!
Social Anthropology 101. It's highly unlikely that you'll deviate much from your parents social status/income level. One of my favorite classes in college. I had a thing for my teacher, she was hot. Anyway, my response is, so what? Work with what you got and try to have a good outlook on life.
I think that voluntary charity is a very good thing and we should try to keep folks fed, sheltered, clothed, and maybe some basic health care, but that's it. Everything else is gravy. If you want more you need to try and change the programming you received from your parents and the environment you were raised in.
Quote from: Jack89 on July 15, 2016, 12:56:07 AM
Social Anthropology 101. It's highly unlikely that you'll deviate much from your parents social status/income level. One of my favorite classes in college. I had a thing for my teacher, she was hot. Anyway, my response is, so what? Work with what you got and try to have a good outlook on life.
I see your point if you talk about a middle class person, but i find it quite harsh to say that to someone who is born in absolute poverty.
The idea that "it is what it is" and that if you are born in a social class you should stick to it reminds me of the of the rigid class system of the middle ages.
Quote from: Jack89 on July 15, 2016, 12:56:07 AM
I think that voluntary charity is a very good thing and we should try to keep folks fed, sheltered, clothed, and maybe some basic health care, but that's it. Everything else is gravy. If you want more you need to try and change the programming you received from your parents and the environment you were raised in.
About this, I don't think that "charity" is the way to go.
I think is basic human rights to be fed, clothed and have your health taken care of, and is we as a society that have to take care of that as an obligation, not as a voluntary pity gift.
Also I think Your last statement contradicts the first. You just can´t "change the programming" if you are, for example, iliterate, or born in a certain place, or in a problematic family.
Society has to provide ways to help those people do better and scape from the endless circle of chronic poverty they may be in.
it's not a simple topic that's for sure. I believe it is the rule of thumb. Yes there are always exceptions to every rule but for the most part people do not advance much.
For example a family born in the city will have a much harder time advancing. I know this because my kids almost grew up in a city (till I got them out of it). The schools were horrible little to no educations available due to the other underlying issues that come with city living. Gangs, drug addicted parents. Parents who work jobs like mcdonalds and have no life skills to teach their kids. Kids who see fast money that comes from drug dealing. It's a quick out and a quick ticket to jail. Once you hit jail it's hard to bounce back from that. No one wants you. There are very few opportunities to advance from poverty stricken families. Not that it's impossible (although for some I'm sure that's true).
I came from a lower middle class family and now live in straight up poverty. I gained no life skills from my family and it shows. I have no skills to offer my children. Their only hope is perhaps college and even that's shaky as most of our family was not able (either too stupid or needed a different teaching method) to complete and pass college. I have very little to no hope of advancing I'm not going to delude myself.
I've seen a lot of shit and this article rings true to me.
The whole nature nurture discussion has been going from one extreme to the other in recent history. That's the way it always goes with issues like that.
Gerard
There are graphs provided, so of course it's 100% accurate.
Not to make light of a serious subject, but I think success is based a lot on having pushy parents who stole wealth (businessly and sort of legally) and then you inheriting it.
Second to that, grow up hard and read by firelight in a cabin.
I think that covers most national leaders.
According to me it is sure people only got what they deserve according to their personal efforts.
[mod]Nope![/mod]
Quote from: Admissioninf on June 27, 2017, 02:52:09 AM
According to me it is sure people only got what they deserve according to their personal efforts.
[mod]Nope![/mod]
No spamming. That said, in India, per reincarnation, everyone gets their just deserts ... but it isn't parfait.
Hillbilly Elegy is a book I'm currently reading. It's a brief autobiography by a disadvantaged 20 something from rural Kentucky and without a father and a drug addict mother who attempts to provide him with an endless march of rotating fathers that briefly enter her life. The biggest figure in his formative years seems to be uneducated foulmouthed grandmother whose husband literally doesn't even live in the same house with her. It's much like something a motivational speaker would write.
He ends up getting a law degree from Yale. The message seems to be "If a hillbilly can do it, so can you." While that's certainly inspirational, it's also certainly not true. This guy may be a hillbilly, a description he owns with pride, but he is not representative of an average hillbilly or your average American for that matter. Clearly, he has something else going for him which he underplays in the book. Hard work counts for a lot and is an undisputable asset, but I suspect that successful people are blessed with a bit more than that. There are lots of hard working people, even in Kentucky, but most of them are still lucky to get out of the coal mines.
Having said that, it's an interesting book. The above criticism faults the book more than necessary, but I only chose to comment on one small aspect that jumped out at me, mostly because it seems somewhat germane to the topic at hand.
Americans still believe Horatio Alger stories, because the Calvinist interpretation of Capitalism requires it of them. They remain face down in the bitter dregs of their bender.
Quote from: Admissioninf on June 27, 2017, 02:52:09 AM
According to me it is sure people only got what they deserve according to their personal efforts.
[mod]Nope![/mod]
Right. So that child of poor parents, who went to a school full of druggies and bullies and gangs pulling at him every day to join, who had not enough food each day... That was his own fault for not escaping the poverty and twisted economy he experienced as a child. Just because a few people are lucky enough to escape that. Yeah.
The escapees are the exception to the norm, not the rule.
Quote from: Cavebear on June 29, 2017, 04:11:15 AM
Right. So that child of poor parents, who went to a school full of druggies and bullies and gangs pulling at him every day to join, who had not enough food each day... That was his own fault for not escaping the poverty and twisted economy he experienced as a child. Just because a few people are lucky enough to escape that. Yeah.
The escapees are the exception to the norm, not the rule.
Correct in your POV. But what do we do with the exceptions to the norm ... like atheists? Shall we just throw them out? That is the problem with pesky data points ... some of them spoil the nice curve we optimistically draw thru our data.
Come on guys. Quit quoting the spam. You're making twice the mess.