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News & General Discussion => News Stories and Current Events => Topic started by: SGOS on October 20, 2021, 06:01:37 AM

Title: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on October 20, 2021, 06:01:37 AM
I've been surprised by the stores and restaurants that have closed.  One of my local favorites was a steak house that was always crowded, even during the pandemic.  It just closed about a month ago, even the huge sign is gone, and they aren't coming back.  I wondered because they were always so busy.  Usually, there were maybe 10 or so waitresses, along with busboys, and cooks, and dishwashers.  I could usually find a table, but there was usually only one or two empty.  A NYT article just talked about the slow economic recovery due to worker shortages.

What I've noticed is that small mom and pop places that are family owned and staffed have made it through, while ones that I thought of as institutions are gone.  Family operated businesses probably take care of their own better than the big institutions than need to hire outside help, perhaps because their business is dependent on volume.  It's interesting to speculate about this.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on October 20, 2021, 09:01:28 AM
I miss going to pubs and tiki grills, playing live music, and the sound of clanging plates and laughter. Then I pop over to https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/ and I am good again. It will end someday and i'd prefer to be alive when it does. And the good news is that we all know the dead freedom fighters will now vote for democrats.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: PopeyesPappy on October 20, 2021, 11:54:18 PM
There is an interesting article making the rounds on the Internet today about a guy in Florida that applied to 60 job openings in 30 days. It's worth the short read.

https://www.businessinsider.com/worker-applied-to-60-jobs-got-one-interview-labor-shortage-2021-10

Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on October 21, 2021, 07:01:52 AM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on October 20, 2021, 11:54:18 PM
There is an interesting article making the rounds on the Internet today about a guy in Florida that applied to 60 job openings in 30 days.
There's lots of things that are hard to believe about what's really happening, but then it's hard to believe much of anything anymore.  Businesses that seem to have been doing well are shutting down around here, although no reasons are given for why.  It's hard to believe there is a shortage of workers in such a scenario, especially here where everyone acts like they don't care about the pandemic.  I bought a coke at a Hardee's drive through that was closed in the afternoon, because (as reported by the girl in the window) they can't find help to keep the eating area open.  It's hard to believe people could still be living off of a 6month old stimulus check for $1200.

Somethings afoot, and I don't know what it is.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Mike Cl on October 21, 2021, 09:24:35 AM
Quote from: SGOS on October 21, 2021, 07:01:52 AM
There's lots of things that are hard to believe about what's really happening, but then it's hard to believe much of anything anymore.  Businesses that seem to have been doing well are shutting down around here, although no reasons are given for why.  It's hard to believe there is a shortage of workers in such a scenario, especially here where everyone acts like they don't care about the pandemic.  I bought a coke at a Hardee's drive through that was closed in the afternoon, because (as reported by the girl in the window) they can't find help to keep the eating area open.  It's hard to believe people could still be living off of a 6month old stimulus check for $1200.

Somethings afoot, and I don't know what it is.
I have the same feeling--something is afoot.  This is farfetched, but in this climate anything is possible.  With the DOJ apparently following a hands off approach to investigating Trump, which  encourages he and his base, is violence just inches away?  Could a civil war like approach be close?  Is that possible?  Is it reasonable?  No.  But then, my reasonable thoughts and ideas have been out of vogue for years now.  But something is afoot and I don't know what it is either.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on October 21, 2021, 09:34:42 AM
Quote from: SGOS on October 21, 2021, 07:01:52 AM
There's lots of things that are hard to believe about what's really happening, but then it's hard to believe much of anything anymore.  Businesses that seem to have been doing well are shutting down around here, although no reasons are given for why.  It's hard to believe there is a shortage of workers in such a scenario, especially here where everyone acts like they don't care about the pandemic.  I bought a coke at a Hardee's drive through that was closed in the afternoon, because (as reported by the girl in the window) they can't find help to keep the eating area open.  It's hard to believe people could still be living off of a 6month old stimulus check for $1200.

Somethings afoot, and I don't know what it is.
Just anecdotal at this point but I think many young people are delaying the traditional marriage/kids/job/mortgage lifestyle. Maybe forever. Youtube blogging, living in vans, couch surfing, living in a boat restore project, diamond hands stock gambling, basement dwelling in Mom's house...stuff like that. Doing the odd gig for money.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: PopeyesPappy on October 22, 2021, 11:08:08 PM
Quote from: Cassia on October 21, 2021, 09:34:42 AM
Just anecdotal at this point but I think many young people are delaying the traditional marriage/kids/job/mortgage lifestyle. Maybe forever. Youtube blogging, living in vans, couch surfing, living in a boat restore project, diamond hands stock gambling, basement dwelling in Mom's house...stuff like that. Doing the odd gig for money.

A lot of that has been going on forever. I know two people that did the living in a boat restore project, and just don't know that many people.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Shiranu on October 22, 2021, 11:32:33 PM
Funny enough this is one political topic I don't feel like I know enough to even give an opinion on even though I'm currently one of the people currently unemployed.

For me, I'm just trying to hold out as long as I can to force the employers to raise wages even further or provide benefits. The extra unemployment  money I had gotten is still getting me through thanks to living with family, but it is about to go under 10k and at that point I need to start looking for work again. Trying to hold on till at least after the new year.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on October 23, 2021, 06:03:33 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on October 22, 2021, 11:32:33 PM
Funny enough this is one political topic I don't feel like I know enough to even give an opinion on even though I'm currently one of the people currently unemployed.
Actually, you are probably better qualified to explain the situation than most people.  Do you know other people your age doing the same thing?
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Shiranu on October 23, 2021, 06:48:23 PM
Quote from: SGOS on October 23, 2021, 06:03:33 AM
Actually, you are probably better qualified to explain the situation than most people.  Do you know other people your age doing the same thing?

Everyone I know just continued working through the pandemic because they had to if they wanted to pay rent, I don't think I know anyone else who quit. I had the benefit of having already saved up a decent amount of money and living with my grandmother which let me afford to do so, but it also meant I had to leave my job because of her age and pre-existing conditions.

Out of the 20 odd people I keep some sort of social media connection with, the closest I can think of is 2 or 3 who started working from home.

I honestly don't know who is still unemployed at this point, because I feel like the overwhelming majority of people have to pay rent to landlords + student loans.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on October 24, 2021, 12:36:38 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on October 23, 2021, 06:48:23 PM
I honestly don't know who is still unemployed at this point, because I feel like the overwhelming majority of people have to pay rent to landlords + student loans.
There anecdotal evidence I collect, the less I understand what's happening.  And none of what the "knowledgeable" authorities offer seems to fully explain the situation.  I'm starting to think no one actually understands it.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on October 24, 2021, 07:50:41 AM
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/GPV6VUqlieDYcooWTGKtBA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-10/70fe4b20-3124-11ec-b5dd-0e82c0f9fc11)
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on October 24, 2021, 08:01:42 AM
Interestingly, in my family it is the young males who seem to have low aspirations career-wise. Most in their 20s and early 30s working entry level positions, 1/2 of a college degree, no steady relationships, lots of weed and video games. They seem happy and really, that is the main thing. There will be social consequences...but we all adapt.

PS. I remember when many corps. were very loyal to their employees...pensions and other prizes to slug it out for decades...IBM famously would move you around the country to keep you employed (I. B.een M.oved). If they did have to axe you, it was with a 6 figure severance deal. These jobs were cherished and damn..we  really overworked ourselves. I worked several xmas days, not that I really minded. Not big on most of the PITA super fake xmas activities.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on October 24, 2021, 08:47:33 AM
Quote from: Cassia on October 24, 2021, 08:01:42 AM
Interestingly, in my family it is the young males who seem to have low aspirations career-wise. Most in their 20s and early 30s working entry level positions, 1/2 of a college degree, no steady relationships, lots of weed and video games. They seem happy and really, that is the main thing. There will be social consequences...but we all adapt.

PS. I remember when many corps. were very loyal to their employees...pensions and other prizes to slug it out for decades...IBM famously would move you around the country to keep you employed (I. B.een M.oved). If they did have to axe you, it was with a 6 figure severance deal. These jobs were cherished and damn..we  really overworked ourselves. I worked several xmas days, not that I really minded. Not big on most of the PITA super fake xmas activities.

My brother-in-law in Chicago seems to be noticing the same thing about the younger generation.  What he describes sounds laid back, not exactly what I would call lazy.  It's more like a re-evaluation of priorities.  But being pre Baby Boomer, I don't know that this will solve the problem of spiraling costs of living.  It's true, we don't need as much as we think, but we do need many of the basics to be content.... or maybe not?

But there is one thing not so philosophical.  The fact is that jobs are not in abundance as when I grew up.  I was never out of a job for more than two days if I wanted one.  This younger generation doesn't have this to look forward to... or maybe not..., so if they are to be content, they will have to handle that reality without getting worried.  I don't know if this is good or bad.  Many people don't worry about climate change, and as a result nothing is being done about it.  Many people refuse to take action in a pandemic, but both climate and covid are eventual realities.  Maybe doing something about any reality is just too much work.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Hydra009 on October 24, 2021, 09:48:59 AM
Quote from: Cassia on October 24, 2021, 07:50:41 AM(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/GPV6VUqlieDYcooWTGKtBA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-10/70fe4b20-3124-11ec-b5dd-0e82c0f9fc11)
I'd be interested in a similar graph of how long the average company stays afloat before being shuttered.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on October 24, 2021, 10:26:12 AM
I wonder about that as well. It make sense that small business have less staying power in bad times. Stability and big market share were always a plus to me when I was job hunting. And smaller companies sometimes squeezed me pretty good when they needed to.
Surprisingly, business failure rates are fairly consistent. Even during the economic downturn starting around 2008, failure rates stayed roughly the same with the exception of the smallest establishments. Notably, it was very small businesses â€" those with five or fewer employees â€" that exited at higher rates during the Great Recession.
https://www.lendingtree.com/business/small/failure-rate/
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Shiranu on October 25, 2021, 03:43:53 AM
Quote from: Cassia on October 24, 2021, 08:01:42 AM
Interestingly, in my family it is the young males who seem to have low aspirations career-wise. Most in their 20s and early 30s working entry level positions, 1/2 of a college degree, no steady relationships, lots of weed and video games. They seem happy and really, that is the main thing. There will be social consequences...but we all adapt.



I cannot find the link off the top of my head, and I don't want yall to take my word for this just because... but atm I just cannot find the articles I am drawing this information from....

Men right now are suffering immensely in the job market; women are getting a fair majority of the college degree jobs, the rate that men are completing college has significantly dropped (from memory it's 40/60 male-to-female, but again take this with a grain of salt because it's from memory and not a direct source), men's suicide rates have spiked... I know there were several other important statistics but I just cannot recall them accurately enough to state them.

Likewise when you look at generational impact, Gen Z is facing a suicide crisis that even millennials didn't have... over the last decade the 10-24 y/o suicide rate has jumped up by 56%, for the 10-14 y/o demographic the suicide rate tripled, millennials saw a 47% increase in major-depressive episodes and 13% of teens reported suffering a major depressive breakdown in the last year.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-teenage-gen-z-american-suicide-epidemic (https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-teenage-gen-z-american-suicide-epidemic)

From personal experience... my alcoholism has become crippling, to the point that I have been intoxicated for nearly a year and a half with only 3-4 day long breaks at a time, and probably at most 3-4 of those breaks. From personal experience with the people I go out and party with... we aren't happy, we just numb ourselves till we don't care; most common drugs of choice is ecstasy and cannabis, but most of us have stopped rolling because now the odds that you are going to get molly laced with fenty or something else are higher than getting something pure. Cannabis can be a bit deceptive; you feel and behave like you are happy, but there is still that voice in the back of your head telling you how shit everything is, and once you sober up that voice is screaming at you.

The only people I actually know who are doing financially stable are drug dealers. 
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Mike Cl on October 25, 2021, 09:22:43 AM
Damn, Shiranu, that is pretty damn depressing for me.  For you it must be a horror to live through.  I can only hope you can find a better way to dealing with this shitty country. 
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: drunkenshoe on October 25, 2021, 09:53:14 AM
I'm sorry to hear all that, Shir. Just hang in there. 
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Shiranu on October 25, 2021, 01:31:03 PM
It is what it is, I think this is far more the natural order of human existence than the "peaceful, prosperous golden age" (*peaceful and prosperous for certain people, anyways) we went through after WW2.

I did go back and find some of the statistics I was talking about...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/young-men-college-decline-gender-gap-higher-education/620066/

For every 6 women, it's 4 men enrolling in college; I cant find the male-to-female dropout rate, but 33% of students drop out of college every year and I would assume it tends to lean more males to females... and when you are talking about public colleges (where the poorer people go) that overall dropout rate goes up to 50%.

On top of that last year 1.5 million less people enrolled in college than 5 years ago with men making 70% of that decrease.

https://www.apa.org/monitor/2019/01/numbers

Rate of death by suicide in the United States increased by 30% between 2000 and 2016, from 10.4 to 13.5 per 100,000 people, with men seeing a 21% increase from 17.7 to 21.4 per 100,000.

I feel like that's slightly starting to get off topic, but also this is the age group that works those jobs and I would assume these problems heavily influence a lot of people's decision on going back to work.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Shiranu on October 26, 2021, 08:10:52 PM
Higher minimum wages? Jobs with benefits? 4-day work weeks?

Nah, Wisconsin has solved the problem... bring back child labour!

https://www.fatherly.com/news/labor-shortage-wisconsin-bill-teens-work/ (https://www.fatherly.com/news/labor-shortage-wisconsin-bill-teens-work/)

QuoteAccording to Business Insider, Wisconsin Senate approved Senate Bill 322, a bill that if passed would allow 14 and 15-year-olds to work until 11 p.m. on some days. This is much later than the current laws allow and “supporters of the bill say it could help plug the state’s labor shortage.”

(Not mentioned was raising the minimum wage. The state’s minimum wage is $7.25/an hour, and hasn’t been raised since the federal minimum wage was raised to that rate in 2009.)

Currently, Wisconsin follows federal child-labor laws which state that kids under 16 years old can only work between 7 a.m. and 9 p.m. from June 1 to Labor Day, which is the first week of September. For the rest of the year, kids 16 and under can only work between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.

This proposed bill will make it legal for kids to work from the hours of 6 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. on school nights, and 6 am to 11 pm on days where there’s no school the following day.


Was reading a Chinese-media article about this, and they are having a field day about how we criticize them for child labour and yet we are the only UN member who did not formally sign and recognize the articles regarding the inherent rights of children and are passing laws making child labour more common.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on October 28, 2021, 08:32:14 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on October 26, 2021, 08:10:52 PM
Higher minimum wages? Jobs with benefits? 4-day work weeks?

Nah, Wisconsin has solved the problem... bring back child labour!

https://www.fatherly.com/news/labor-shortage-wisconsin-bill-teens-work/ (https://www.fatherly.com/news/labor-shortage-wisconsin-bill-teens-work/)


Was reading a Chinese-media article about this, and they are having a field day about how we criticize them for child labour and yet we are the only UN member who did not formally sign and recognize the articles regarding the inherent rights of children and are passing laws making child labour more common.
We are a capitalist society in decline.  Laws are fine as long as they don't interfere with profit.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: aitm on October 28, 2021, 01:17:12 PM
I don’t get to see as much as of what a lot of you are seeing…apparently. In larger scale construction we still have the backbone of production…being Mexicans. The controlling supervisors…90% white….laborers…95% black. At least some of the skilled trades are becoming more colorful…I always push the younger black kids to go to a trade school, you can make some decent money as a skilled tradesman.

Non-the -less, if anything I see not so much a disinterest in work as much as a per occupation with whether your last post got the attention you crave. I have not had a drop off of labor in any fashion, but perhaps construction not being a more cerebral employ has less objections from those in it. No office bull shit. No work from home. Either there or down the road you go. 4 more years for me…or maybe more if the health holds out…boredom would kill me quicker than booze.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on November 14, 2021, 08:02:06 PM
I think this is, overall, a symptom of a larger problem more than it is a problem in and of itself.  That's not to say it isn't a problem.

The economy is basically going off the rails right now.  The collapse that Austrian economists predicted is happening around us right now.  We have simultaneous high unemployment and a worker shortage.  We have inflation that was supposed to be transitory steadily increasing, and we are being told that this inflation is actually good because it means rising pay.  We have shortages hitting all over the place seemingly at random, and we are being told that the shortages are signs of an economic recovery.  The supply chains are fucked.

We are in the midst of the collapse.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on November 14, 2021, 09:27:23 PM
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on November 14, 2021, 08:02:06 PM
I think this is, overall, a symptom of a larger problem more than it is a problem in and of itself.  That's not to say it isn't a problem.

The economy is basically going off the rails right now.  The collapse that Austrian economists predicted is happening around us right now.  We have simultaneous high unemployment and a worker shortage.  We have inflation that was supposed to be transitory steadily increasing, and we are being told that this inflation is actually good because it means rising pay.  We have shortages hitting all over the place seemingly at random, and we are being told that the shortages are signs of an economic recovery.  The supply chains are fucked.

We are in the midst of the collapse.
If you predict an economic "collapse", every 8 to 12 years you will be right. Right now it looks like strong demand for goods and fuel and a shitty shipping infrastructure that can't meet demand and the backlash effects of Trump's tariffs. Just in case...I have low-side buffers on my stocks. Good idea for old folks to hedge their market positions.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Cassia on November 14, 2021, 09:32:51 PM
Looks like weed stocks are going up..

QuoteRepublican-led bill that would reportedly remove marijuana from the list of federally controlled substances, set up a marijuana regulatory system, and create a 3.75% excise tax on cannabis product sales.

Also talk about about Cannabis-infused beer and other drinks may be a thing.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: SGOS on November 15, 2021, 08:04:00 AM
In my mind, I tie the economic problems to the pandemic, but that might be because they are happening at the same time and not necessarily cause an effect.  We have made some progress in ending the pandemic, but the economy is getting worse.  I know that the two things don't have to swing in tandem to affect each other directly.  But the supply chain weakness does seem to be from a worker shortage.  That's what happens when workers die or are afraid to work, so that seems to support the correlation.

With strong demand, usual capitalist theory predicts an increase in supply and inflation finding an equilibrium, and I know those don't happen in tandem either. 

As for all those business closings this last year, those were all because of loss of business.  It happened where I live and mandates were unenforceable, so it seems like that sector of the economy lost because people were afraid to participate either as workers or as consumers during a pandemic.  I think this economic mess is about the pandemic, and I think that's what we need to fix.  The economy may not improve until we do that.
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: GodFree on November 15, 2021, 11:00:18 PM
Hmmmm... about the generational time in grade/occupation.... myself over 20 years with a 100 year old financial company that still has the pensions & other bennies..... but bored out of my mind, kinda admire those younger kids who try to carve out their own gig.  Youth have the most precious commodity .....time....
Title: Re: Worker Shortages
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on December 28, 2021, 07:44:37 PM
Quote from: Cassia on November 14, 2021, 09:27:23 PM
If you predict an economic "collapse", every 8 to 12 years you will be right. Right now it looks like strong demand for goods and fuel and a shitty shipping infrastructure that can't meet demand and the backlash effects of Trump's tariffs. Just in case...I have low-side buffers on my stocks. Good idea for old folks to hedge their market positions.

From the Austrian point of view, the US should have had a short but sharp dip in 2000, but the government poured so much "rescue" into the economy that it was pushed out to 2008.  Once 2008 hit, we had a worse dive in the economy, requiring even more "rescue" to the point where the economy struggled hard to recover which it did just in time where the Covid lockdowns started to crash the whole thing and rescue isn't possible.

The supply-chain collapse and the inflation isn't just a case of "people are going out shopping again".  The "pandemic" may have been the final push, but the economy was in a delicate balance even before Covid.

You can't indefinitely postpone a correction, and the more it is postponed the worse it is when it finally happens.