Atheistforums

Humanities Section => History General Discussion => Topic started by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 12:22:30 AM

Title: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 12:22:30 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzFr-uNTXxc

US may not always start wars or even lead them, but we do finish them.

The 4th Japanese carrier commander, in the still frame, his ship was the last to go down, and he chose to go down with it.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 11:53:31 AM
Japan started and lost a war they could not win and knew they could not win on that day.  Mind-boggling really.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 08, 2018, 12:56:19 PM
The IJA didn't care about concerns others had about the war, they wanted to conquer China. To do this they needed oil. The 26 February 1936 revolt by junior officers showed that the Army was in control of Japan. It got them nuked and serves as a reminder of what happens when the military takes control of a country.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 01:02:41 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Japan started and lost a war they could not win and knew they could not win on that day.  Mind-boggling really.

Hitler was a gambler too.  Gamblers sometimes have winning streaks, that make them think they are infallible ;-(  The first thing that fails in war, is the current plan.  Events always overtakes it.

Japan began with war in Manchuria in 1931 with the Blackwater style Kwangtung Army.  Originally Japan was allied with Britain, and China was allied with Germany.  Until the weakness of China and strength of Japan convinced Germany to betray China in favor of Japan.  At that point, support for China shifted to the British Empire and the US (with out Blackwater style Flying Tigers).  This was a fatal mistake of many, by Japan and Germany.  Japan was never a loyal ally to Germany, they simply wanted Germany to distract the British, French and Dutch Empires in Asia.  This "strike south" strategy came about when the "strike north" strategy proved disastrous in N Manchuria, when the Kwangtung Army encroached on the Mongolian allies of the Soviet Union, and General Zhukov soundly defeated them, in 1939.  So with Japan, they had a "double down" gambler strategy ... if the stakes are high enough and your resources are great enough, even if you are losing (and they were stalemated in China from 1940) you simply throw in more resources into more places.  Germany also followed the "double down" gambler strategy.  When Churchill refused to negotiate, Hitler was forced to prematurely attack the Soviet Union.  Stalin also intended to betray Germany, but wasn't as ready (thanks to Stalin's purge of his entire officer corp).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVwlUe_t3jg

Japan is peculiarly successful on their home islands, but peculiar failures outside of it.  Germany has a similar history.  One being isolated by sea, the other by forest.  Each step, in a near sighted way, made sense at the time, to each player.  But few could see the big picture.  Hitler thought he could, better than anyone.  The only person he was afraid of was Churchill (he despised America).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SZcDW_1o8g

Hitler's generals knew they couldn't win, by the time they lost at Stalingrad (1943).  They had given the invasion of the Soviet Union two good years of total warfare, and Stalin was no closer to surrendering.  Hitler never studied Napoleon.  Thus the German generals became increasingly dangerous to the Nazi regime.  Even someone as personally loyal as Rommel.  But they could all see that Hitler was going down hill physically and mentally.  The allies cancelled a planned assassination of Hitler for late 1944, because by then, they figured that Hitler was a bigger liability than an asset to Germany.

Those funny Japanese, don't make them lose face or they can't eat!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh5LY4Mz15o
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 01:07:20 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The IJA didn't care about concerns others had about the war, they wanted to conquer China. To do this they needed oil. The 26 February 1936 revolt by junior officers showed that the Army was in control of Japan. It got them nuked and serves as a reminder of what happens when the military takes control of a country.

Correct, the Japanese Army and Navy hated each other.  This was very helpful to the Allies.  The Royal Airforce was separate from the Royal Army, this was very helpful for the defense of Britain.  If the Japanese military had been properly unified (and the Emperor not a puppet) then they could have played a much better game of Go.  The US solved this just in time by founding the Pentagon on 9/11/1941 ... but it wasn't fully operational by 12/7/1941 ... or we might have played a better game of poker.  Dischordant government is fatal all thru history.  Not sure it is just a problem with military dictatorships.  The US has been under the control of the MIC since 1941 ... see a problem with that General Ike?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 01:34:58 PM
Japan lacked the industrial base to compete with the US.  Yamamoto, who had traveled extensively in the US while stationed in Washington knew this better than anyone.  He famously commented that he could handle the US Navy for a year but after that made no promises. 

Congress, not always asleep at the switch, had begun naval expansion in 1938 and then again with a massive influx in 1940.  We did not have to design ships from the keel up.  We simply had to build more of what was already underway.  I forget where I read it but someone once observed that if the Japs had sunk every ship in the Pacific on Dec. 7 and lost none of their own by the Summer of 1943 we would have still outweighed them in every category with more modern vessels.  Japanese naval construction during the course of the war was pathetic.  Of course, they had not planned for a long war.  Pearl Harbor was supposed to be the decisive blow.  It wasn't.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 01:42:10 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Japan lacked the industrial base to compete with the US.  Yamamoto, who had traveled extensively in the US while stationed in Washington knew this better than anyone.  He famously commented that he could handle the US Navy for a year but after that made no promises. 

Congress, not always asleep at the switch, had begun naval expansion in 1938 and then again with a massive influx in 1940.  We did not have to design ships from the keel up.  We simply had to build more of what was already underway.  I forget where I read it but someone once observed that if the Japs had sunk every ship in the Pacific on Dec. 7 and lost none of their own by the Summer of 1943 we would have still outweighed them in every category with more modern vessels.  Japanese naval construction during the course of the war was pathetic.  Of course, they had not planned for a long war.  Pearl Harbor was supposed to be the decisive blow.  It wasn't.

Correct, but Admiral Yamamoto wasn't at the head of the Government, Gen Tojo was (Army).

Most Naval combat was by aviation, but there were some famous ship-to-ship fights (early, and the Allies lost off of Guadacanal).  Whenever a conventional ship went up against competent aviation, they always lost.  The British lost two battleships to Japanese aircraft, off of Singapore, in 1941 for no good reason.  Churchill was a better strategist than a tactician.  The destruction of the Yamato is the most legendary for Japanese people.  The gun crews (Japanese marines) were sitting ducks to our 50 calibers.  Musashi (sister ship of Yamato) had already been sunk by aviation when the Japanese tried to defend the Philippines.  And then they sent the Yamato on a suicide mission to defend Okinawa.  Each case a total waste of good men.  This is similar to the notion that tank advances without adequate infantry is suicide long term.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKROConWAHE
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Unbeliever on December 08, 2018, 01:45:00 PM
I seem to recall hearing that Japan tried to build ships that were really big and invincible in order to make up for the numerical superiority of the U.S. - but obviously that didn't work.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 02:00:40 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I seem to recall hearing that Japan tried to build ships that were really big and invincible in order to make up for the numerical superiority of the U.S. - but obviously that didn't work.

It was an older 1930s strategy, that was being overtaken by the carrier men.  Same thing happened in the US.  Early on the US had to court martial Gen Billy Mitchell, to get him to shut up.  It was all about how many battleships you had in the 1920s.  Admirals too, are always fighting the last war.  Gen Mitchell actually predicted the attack on Pearl Harbor, just the way it happened.  But nobody believed him until 12/8/1941.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhRi7OtIWH0
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 02:20:31 PM
Quote
Correct, but Admiral Yamamoto wasn't at the head of the Government, Gen Tojo was (Army).

Technically, Yamamoto wasn't even in command of the Navy.  Nagano was Chief of the General Staff and Shimada was the Naval Minister.  Tojo, who certainly lacked Yamamoto's insight into the enemy, did not become Prime Minister until Prince Konoye resigned in October of 1941 and by then the plans for the attack were well advanced.

Roosevelt's oil embargo had worked too well.  But he did not reckon on the peculiar nature of the Japanese.  While more rational people might have had second thoughts about starting a modern war without the fuel to make it go the Japanese reaction was "we better strike while we still can." 

And then, of course, even Yamamoto had blinders when it came to battleships.  Instead of destroying the fuel depots and base facilities which might have made Pearl Harbor useless as a forward base they concentrated on a bunch of obsolete battleships when the carriers weren't in port.  Of course that is what the British had done at Taranto but even they did some damage to shore installations.  To put it bluntly, Japan fucked itself from the word "go."

Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 02:21:34 PM
A quick summary of German history, in two versions, for Germanophiles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgheO1Hbbt8 - less detail

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw2MzEorTu0 - more detail on the early period.

Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 02:35:29 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Technically, Yamamoto wasn't even in command of the Navy.  Nagano was Chief of the General Staff and Shimada was the Naval Minister.  Tojo, who certainly lacked Yamamoto's insight into the enemy, did not become Prime Minister until Prince Konoye resigned in October of 1941 and by then the plans for the attack were well advanced.

Roosevelt's oil embargo had worked too well.  But he did not reckon on the peculiar nature of the Japanese.  While more rational people might have had second thoughts about starting a modern war without the fuel to make it go the Japanese reaction was "we better strike while we still can." 

And then, of course, even Yamamoto had blinders when it came to battleships.  Instead of destroying the fuel depots and base facilities which might have made Pearl Harbor useless as a forward base they concentrated on a bunch of obsolete battleships when the carriers weren't in port.  Of course that is what the British had done at Taranto but even they did some damage to shore installations.  To put it bluntly, Japan fucked itself from the word "go."

Taranto was a pure opportunity ambush.  Thanks to Ultra.  Of course without breaking the Japanese codes, we would have lost at Midway.  It was a very close thing.  Remember, a nation is country designed by a committee ... kind of like the camel vs a horse.

The West totally underestimated the Japanese from the 1890s until the 1940s.  Ultimately it was the US Navy that made itself vulnerable, by advancing the Fleet from San Diego to Honolulu ... in Summer 1940.  They expected the strike against Luzon, and that did happen, but the same day as Pearl Harbor.  And McArthur was as unprepared as the leaders on Hawaii.  And nobody expected the Japanese to be so damaging.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 08, 2018, 03:45:00 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
 

And then, of course, even Yamamoto had blinders when it came to battleships.  Instead of destroying the fuel depots and base facilities which might have made Pearl Harbor useless as a forward base they concentrated on a bunch of obsolete battleships when the carriers weren't in port.  Of course that is what the British had done at Taranto but even they did some damage to shore installations.  To put it bluntly, Japan fucked itself from the word "go."


The IJN didn't have the gear to destroy nearly 100 oil tanks. The tanks were surrounded by berms, a total failure of the tank would cause a puddle that would have been pumped into other tanks. The tanks has false tops, you couldn't tell which ones had fuel in them. The tanks also had floating tops, these kept air out of  contact with the fuel. And the fuel, Bunker B, had to be heated to burn. The IJN used their bombs on ships, not infrastructure. The Zeke's had 20mm cannons, but the shells had "quick firing fuzes" to explode against aluminum airframes. The tanks had walls 1/2 inch thick at the top tapering to 1.5 inches at the bottom. The fighters' guns wouldn't mar that stuff too much, leave alone penetrate it.

And, if every tank had been destroyed the underground storage at Rose Hill would have been in action in June, '42. Tankers would have filled in until then. Alan Zimm calculated that 9 tankers would refill or replace all the tanks in 30 days, or 3 tankers in 90 days.

And, of course, getting the pseudo-samurai pilots to attack "junk" just wasn't going to happen.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 04:57:51 PM
Quote
And, of course, getting the pseudo-samurai pilots to attack "junk" just wasn't going to happen.


Which of course was the biggest problem, G/S.  That and the fact that of the first wave 50 Nakajimas were carrying 1,760 pound AP bombs and the other 40 Nakajimas were carrying modified torpedoes to operate in the shallow waters of Pearl.   They had trained extensively to attack the battleships and carriers even to differentiating between ships moored to landward as opposed to seaward.  As you say, with that level of training they weren't after "junk" they were after warships.

American pilots, OTOH, seemed to love starting fires!

Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 08, 2018, 05:47:41 PM
They did sink the demilitarized Utah, a target ship. She is the "other battleship" that was sunk and not refloated after the raid. The IJN pilots showed the usual lack of discipline during the attack. They put EIGHT or NINE* torpedoes into ONE battleship. The result of that was there were no torpedoes available to attack Nevada as she dashed for the sea.

And yes, that was a bad idea. She had to ground on Hospital Point because so many bombs had hit her. The pilots apparently wanted to "sink her in the channel and bottle up the fleet", which was absurd. Nevada was ~600 long and the channel was ~1,000 feet wide. Even perpendicular to the shores she would leave about 200 feet on either end for passage. PLUS there were 14 dredges in the harbor then, so make a path around her for the biggests ships wouldn't have taken long.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 06:31:25 PM
Those 40 torpedo bombers only had a handful of targets on battleship row.

(https://pearlharborwarbirds.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/FordIs_HI-Copy.jpg)

Although why Nevada, exposed at the end of the line wasn't one of them is beyond me.  You'd have to ask them and I imagine damn few survived the war.

It seems that Nevada was only hit once by torpedoes which certainly is grounds to criticize target selection by the pilots.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 06:41:50 PM
So, in any case, Nagumo pulled his punch, to prematurely save his ships (per higher orders and his own predilection).  Things might have been different if Yamamoto had been on the scene, to over-rule Nagumo, either launching some more raids to destroy more of Pearl Harbor (if not the oil depot) or better yet, laying out to sea, and laying an ambush for the incoming US carriers.  In any case, I think immediate carrier hunting should have been the next mission, if they still had ammo etc.  Even using the non-carrier part of the fleet would have been damaging to a warned, but un-blooded US forces.  Instead they went after Guam and Wake, when Midway could be had for free at that point.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 07:56:14 PM
Agreed.  But again the Japanese admirals knew that their ships were irreplaceable.  They finished two battleships (Yamato and Musashi which were nearly complete in Dec. 1941 and a sister ship Shinano which began life as a battleship and died a poorly constructed carrier) the Taiho, built almost entirely during the war and again suffered from design flaws which meant her combat career was short-lived.  The completed a couple of conversions of ships into carriers but built no heavy cruisers, a couple of light cruisers and roughly 40 destroyers.

What was also irreplaceable were their air crews.  Allied pilot training programs were superb.  Germans less so and the Japanese were terrible at it.  I recall reading that after Santa Cruz a group of Kates came upon the hulk of the Hornet, launched 6 torpedoes at a basically stationary target and only got one hit.

Again, this goes back to G/S's samurai observation.  These pilots considered themselves warriors who wanted to fight.  They didn't want to teach. 
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Mike Cl on December 08, 2018, 08:14:23 PM
All this talk about Pearl Harbor reminds me on one of the most startling days of my life.  I was stationed in downtown Honolulu while in the regular Army.  I lived at Schofield Barracks and made a 45 min. compute to and from work.  I used the Nimitz Hwy to and fro each day, and that goes right past Pearl Harbor and Ford Island.  I was day dreaming one day coming to work and looked up at one of the strangest sights I've ever seen.  I saw, coming right at my windshield, 3 Jap Zeros, yellow with the red suns in wing formation; they were probably about 100 ft up and just coming out of a bank and aiming for Ford Island.  I then noticed 5 more formations all in a line on a curve and flying toward Ford Island.  And their wing machine guns were working--at least the ones flying over my car.  I did not know whether or not to shit or go blind!  So, I did both!  I still had no idea what was going on (Twilight Zone????) when I got to work, but soon found out Tora, Tora, Tora was filming that day.  Needless to say I did not need coffee at work that morning.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Unbeliever on December 08, 2018, 08:20:02 PM
Wow, I can see how that would provide a real wake up!
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Mike Cl on December 08, 2018, 08:54:48 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Wow, I can see how that would provide a real wake up!
Yeah, it was.  For a few seconds I had all kinds of thoughts running through my head.   
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 08, 2018, 09:27:52 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Yeah, it was.  For a few seconds I had all kinds of thoughts running through my head.

Did you see Kirk Douglas also, perhaps?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 08, 2018, 10:30:17 PM
Quote
Needless to say I did not need coffee at work that morning.


Did you have to dry your pants, though?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Mike Cl on December 08, 2018, 11:22:11 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Did you have to dry your pants, though?
Luckily I kept a change of cloths at the office. :))
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 09, 2018, 01:53:08 AM
It is routine for aggressor nations to underestimate the long-term industrial base of an enemy, thinking that fast action or national superiority (soldier bravery, leadership skills, citizen-support) will win.

Napoleon assumed his leadership and tactical skills would win against that of all of Europe.  He was wrong.

The US Confederacy assumed a military heritage skill that could not stand against population and industrial might of the Union.  They were wrong.

Hitler assumed his "genius" strategies (and there were many) would succeed against all of Europe and Russia.  He was wrong.

The Japanese assumed a first strike and military fanaticism would succeed.  They were wrong.

There are only 2 ways to succeed against overwhelming industrial military strength.   Asymmetrical warfare and equaling the industrial strength of the enemy by a long build-up of industrial capability.

I propose that building an equal industrial military capability, involving the non-military industry means that one does not benefit from war.  So the strategy to eliminate warfare really means to eliminate asymmetrical warfare.

 

 
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 05:12:40 AM
Nagumo Chuichi had to weigh the value of a second attack against the orders he had and the amount of damage they could do against an alerted and somewhat hostile USN and US Army. He had been ordered to keep his forces together and no more damaged than necessary because they would be needed to assist the Army's advance into "the Southern Resources Area". If the pilots were lost the carriers would be no more than big floating barns. Remember that the IJN took three years to produce a battle-ready pilot, as opposed to the USN's two years.

A second attack simply wasn't worth it.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 09, 2018, 05:39:29 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Nagumo Chuichi had to weigh the value of a second attack against the orders he had and the amount of damage they could do against an alerted and somewhat hostile USN and US Army. He had been ordered to keep his forces together and no more damaged than necessary because they would be needed to assist the Army's advance into "the Southern Resources Area". If the pilots were lost the carriers would be no more than big floating barns. Remember that the IJN took three years to produce a battle-ready pilot, as opposed to the USN's two years.

A second attack simply wasn't worth it.

Understood.  But that is what happens when an insufficient armed force attacks a more equipped and industrially-responsive-adaptable one.  Don't attack someone you don't have a long-term advantage over.

In strictly military terms, the Japanese military leaders did the best they could.  It was, however, doomed.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 07:21:08 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Understood.  But that is what happens when an insufficient armed force attacks a more equipped and industrially-responsive-adaptable one.  Don't attack someone you don't have a long-term advantage over.

In strictly military terms, the Japanese military leaders did the best they could.  It was, however, doomed.
The best they could have done was to call off the war in China and offer to be the second Arsenal of Democracy. The US would have helped them with industrialization and the Soviets would have taken everything they could produce. The Japanese Miracle would happen to an undamaged country and gotten a fifteen/twenty year head start.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 07:22:49 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
So, in any case, Nagumo pulled his punch, to prematurely save his ships (per higher orders and his own predilection).  Things might have been different if Yamamoto had been on the scene, to over-rule Nagumo, either launching some more raids to destroy more of Pearl Harbor (if not the oil depot) or better yet, laying out to sea, and laying an ambush for the incoming US carriers.  In any case, I think immediate carrier hunting should have been the next mission, if they still had ammo etc.  Even using the non-carrier part of the fleet would have been damaging to a warned, but un-blooded US forces.  Instead they went after Guam and Wake, when Midway could be had for free at that point.
That's exactly the scenario Yamamoto was afraid of. It played out at Midway six months later.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 09, 2018, 07:54:50 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The best they could have done was to call off the war in China and offer to be the second Arsenal of Democracy. The US would have helped them with industrialization and the Soviets would have taken everything they could produce. The Japanese Miracle would happen to an undamaged country and gotten a fifteen/twenty year head start.

Well, no.  Actually, all they had to do was stop massacring Chinese and return to international trade for what they needed (and not attacking China to begin with would have been helpful history-wise).  They didn't have to be "an arsenal of democracy" or change their govt.  The Soviets were not a threat to them at the time.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 10:09:37 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Well, no.  Actually, all they had to do was stop massacring Chinese and return to international trade for what they needed (and not attacking China to begin with would have been helpful history-wise).  They didn't have to be "an arsenal of democracy" or change their govt.  The Soviets were not a threat to them at the time.
That's not "The best they could have done", that just restoring the status quo ante.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 09, 2018, 10:21:27 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
That's not "The best they could have done", that just restoring the status quo ante.

It wouldn't have been the status quo ante if it hadn't started.  That's where they went wrong.  The pre WW2 Japanese were well on their way to a modern industrial society.  They didn't build battleships and Zeros from bamboo.  They just got greedy and tried to advance too fast.  If they had just worked slowly up in international trade they would have done fine.

I could get more subtle about this mentioning how they were limited by European Powers and treated as 2nd world citizens (and all that with justified anger) but they still made the decision to try to steal from others and were unbelievably brutal about it.

I have some understanding about their frustration, but no tolerance for the actions in response.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 10:32:21 AM
You know the Japanese had about 10% IIRC of the industrial capacity of the US, right?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 03:37:04 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
That's not "The best they could have done", that just restoring the status quo ante.

The Chinese might have been disturbed to be sold-out twice, once the Germany, and again by the Allies.  The German generals had the non-starter position of wanting to freeze the lines with an armistice, and keep anything not theirs, still within their reach.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 03:40:19 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
That's exactly the scenario Yamamoto was afraid of. It played out at Midway six months later.

If they attacked immediately, the US didn't have the naval code breaking yet (other than the diplomatic code).  Success in war is all about timing.  Go too early or too late, and you loose even against an inferior opponent.  The problem for Germany would have been ... too late in attacking the Soviet Union.  As it was they were about 2 months late on their own schedule, and froze at Moscow.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 04:15:41 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The Chinese might have been disturbed to be sold-out twice, once the Germany, and again by the Allies.  The German generals had the non-starter position of wanting to freeze the lines with an armistice, and keep anything not theirs, still within their reach.
You missed the point. The Japanese would be "bribed" to not go to war with China. That leaves the KMT and the Commies to fight it out in peace.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 04:16:57 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
If they attacked immediately, the US didn't have the naval code breaking yet (other than the diplomatic code).  Success in war is all about timing.  Go too early or too late, and you loose even against an inferior opponent.  The problem for Germany would have been ... too late in attacking the Soviet Union.  As it was they were about 2 months late on their own schedule, and froze at Moscow.
Pearl wasn't Japan's objective, the carriers weren't Japan's objective.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 09, 2018, 06:01:55 PM
The Japanese thought that by dealing a smashing blow to the fleet they would force us to negotiate with them on their terms.  Their understanding of the American psyche was as flawed as ours was of them. 

There's a story, probably apocryphal, of how one night along the Matanikau line some Marine yelled "Hirohito eats shit."  The Japanese line opened up with a blaze of fire and were hit by a counterstorm of mortar and machine gun fire.  The next night, a Jap yelled "Roosevelt eat shit" and a Marine yelled back "You're damned right he does... if it wasn't for him I wouldn't be here."

I read a book some years ago, I wish I could remember the name but what it was was a collection of Japanese diaries that had been picked up by G-2.  The hopelessness of individual soldiers came through loud and clear but they still were resolved to die for the emperor.  In fact, the desire was so deeply ingrained that many of them held grenades to their chests as soon as the US troops got near.  They killed themselves without fighting because they did not dare risk being incapacitated and captured.  To the Western mind it is a staggering point of view.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Unbeliever on December 09, 2018, 06:05:15 PM
Yeah, that's what fanaticism will do to people.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 09, 2018, 06:11:26 PM
It's what happens when you think you are following a god.

(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/79450994330b48d9ad12f3a939650f9a8f72201f/c=1-0-1598-1201/local/-/media/2017/11/27/Phoenix/Phoenix/636473968053305168-Sept11.JPG?width=534&height=401&fit=crop)
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 09, 2018, 06:30:25 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
There's a story, probably apocryphal, of how one night along the Matanikau line some Marine yelled "Hirohito eats shit."  The Japanese line opened up with a blaze of fire and were hit by a counterstorm of mortar and machine gun fire.  The next night, a Jap yelled "Roosevelt eat shit" and a Marine yelled back "You're damned right he does... if it wasn't for him I wouldn't be here."
Heard that one but set in the ACW.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 09, 2018, 06:52:21 PM
Why would Federal or Confederate troops give a shit about Hirohito?

 :wink2:
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 09, 2018, 06:52:55 PM
Obviously the smiley's don't work so well here?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Unbeliever on December 09, 2018, 06:56:04 PM
Not since the last upgrade, or whatever that was.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 07:56:02 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
It's what happens when you think you are following a god.

(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/79450994330b48d9ad12f3a939650f9a8f72201f/c=1-0-1598-1201/local/-/media/2017/11/27/Phoenix/Phoenix/636473968053305168-Sept11.JPG?width=534&height=401&fit=crop)

And you abolish slavery in the British Empire and the US and abolish serfdom in the Russian Empire.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 07:56:47 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Yeah, that's what fanaticism will do to people.

Gavrilo Princip, Vladmir Lenin ...
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 07:58:08 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Obviously the smiley's don't work so well here?

Use emoticons ... (:=|
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 08:00:04 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Why would Federal or Confederate troops give a shit about Hirohito?

 :wink2:

;-)

They did give a shit about Queen Victoria and the Czar.  The Czar prevented Queen Victoria from miscalculating and siding with the Rebels.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 08:02:30 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You missed the point. The Japanese would be "bribed" to not go to war with China. That leaves the KMT and the Commies to fight it out in peace.

That had to happen before 1937.  The Manchurian candidate (Last Emperor) was satisfactory there.  The Strike North idea was always bad, because Siberian resources were only valuable in the long run, and the Japanese didn't have the luxury of time.  Germany did what they could 1933 - 1937 to bribe China, as did Stalin.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 09, 2018, 08:07:04 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Pearl wasn't Japan's objective, the carriers weren't Japan's objective.

Correct.  Yamamoto should have immediately committed seppuku when he failed, by Dec 8 our time.  It was merciful in any case, that he was still considered by the Allies to be worth killing, and he didn't see the destruction and occupation of Japan.  Japan's calendar was one day ahead.  Hirohito attacked on Buddha's birthday.  He wanted to be the rare example of a militant Buddhist (only seen twice before in over 2000 years).  The Buddhist Japanese clergy were quite patriotic, given the Meiji reformation gave most power to Shinto, and put Shinto directly under the Emperor (State Shinto).

Not all Japanese committed suicide in extremis, even when ordered to.  Some fought on, even until the 1970s.  And surrendered honorably.  They are to be greatly admired.  Of course the true heroes are the men in every fighting force, who died in combat.  Japanese officer corp did some strange stuff, including ritual cannibalism.  That is what George HW was heading into, when he got shot down.  Less lucky guys, caught after being shot down by the Japanese, near Iwo Jima, before the landing, had the bad luck to run into Japanese cannibals.

Here is a badly edited and audio modified clip from the movie about the last Japanese surrender on Saipan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnRrcf7364w

The actual Japanese hold out ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KPx9cLpKd0

Better version of the surrender, showing good spirit ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7X6ntwTeEo
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 10, 2018, 12:43:05 PM
The Japanese surrender on Saipan came after the largest Banzai Charge of the war.  Thousands died.

https://youtu.be/TJto2UoQfvE (https://youtu.be/TJto2UoQfvE)

The fanaticism of the Japanese soldier can never be doubted.

Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 10, 2018, 12:59:15 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The Japanese surrender on Saipan came after the largest Banzai Charge of the war.  Thousands died.

https://youtu.be/TJto2UoQfvE (https://youtu.be/TJto2UoQfvE)

The fanaticism of the Japanese soldier can never be doubted.

4000 Japanese and 2000 Americans.  Very big. Firepower however, beats meat targets.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 10, 2018, 04:19:36 PM
Hai.  Wakaramasu.

Especially when half of the attackers were wounded men carrying bamboo spears or civilians who were just there to catch bullets.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: aitm on December 10, 2018, 05:03:04 PM
Pearl Harbor cannot be adequately remembered without flippant reference to Cheech and Chong comedy skit.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 10, 2018, 06:16:00 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Pearl Harbor cannot be adequately remembered without flippant reference to Cheech and Chong comedy skit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ccuWFidUYI
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 10, 2018, 07:01:28 PM
BTW, today is the anniversary of the sinking of Force Z, HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse by Japanese medium torpedo bombers.

Such is the result of the silly idea to operate capital ships sans air cover.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 10, 2018, 07:14:11 PM
Viz the Pearl Harbor comedy ...

A significant contribution to deconstructive historiology ala Derrida by the finest Feminist scholars.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 18, 2018, 07:21:43 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You know the Japanese had about 10% IIRC of the industrial capacity of the US, right?

Yes.  And they didn't realize how quickly the US could react to their attack.  They thought they had us.  They had spent a decade planning and accumulating supplies.  They thought their military honor and determination would win the war.

It never does in modern times.  Like the US Confederacy contending with the far more industrialized Union of the North (where the North had such resources that they were also building the westward railroads and fighting indian tribes because they simply had TOO MUCH STUFF and soldiers once they got going), the Japanese never really had a chance.

Tojo knew that.  But he obeyed a god-emperor...
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 18, 2018, 07:28:30 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Yes.  And they didn't realize how quickly the US could react to their attack.  They thought they had us.  They had spent a decade planning and accumulating supplies.  They thought their military honor and determination would win the war.

It never does in modern times.  Like the US Confederacy contending with the far more industrialized Union of the North (where the North had such resources that they were also building the westward railroads and fighting indian tribes because they simply had TOO MUCH STUFF and soldiers once they got going), the Japanese never really had a chance.

Tojo knew that.  But he obeyed a god-emperor...

Correct.  Emperor Hirohito was culpable.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 18, 2018, 07:33:44 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Correct.  Emperor Hirohito was culpable.

Thank you for agreeing with the obvious...

But wait "culpable"?  He was their god emperor, incapable of error.  How is that merely "culpable"?  Sure he was an isolated fool ensconced in a chrysanthemum tower but he was ALL to them.

See where the atheist view is getting in here?  :)

Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 18, 2018, 08:43:40 AM
Considering that the Big Six made all the decisions about what the Emperor heard I don't see him having much leverage.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 18, 2018, 08:57:53 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Considering that the Big Six made all the decisions about what the Emperor heard I don't see him having much leverage.

It's not what HE knew, it is what the people THOUGHT he knew...
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 18, 2018, 09:06:05 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
It's not what HE knew, it is what the people THOUGHT he knew...
And that was...
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 18, 2018, 12:41:30 PM
Hirohito .. in the context of Meiji Restoration State Shinto ... took the rare position of a militant Buddhist.  In the Japanese calendar, the strike on the US was on Dec 8, not Dec 7.  Dec 8 was Buddha's birthday.  Hirohito has been shown to be ambitious to be a chakravartin ... a world conquering Buddhist Emperor (first seen with Emperor Ashoka in India).  So of course, he could have been tried for war crimes.  As a practical matter, and since he was essential for the surrender (Japan being a unique theocratic society), doubly so, he wasn't tried, and retained as a constitutional monarch.

It was primarily the Japanese Army that promised conquest, and when they ran into trouble in China, they drug the Japanese Navy in.  The Emperor personally approved all initial hostilities.  He didn't direct day to day affairs, unlike Hitler.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 21, 2018, 08:11:26 PM
See this one?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1b6auSQPvGs
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 22, 2018, 07:11:34 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Hirohito .. in the context of Meiji Restoration State Shinto ... took the rare position of a militant Buddhist.  In the Japanese calendar, the strike on the US was on Dec 8, not Dec 7.  Dec 8 was Buddha's birthday.  Hirohito has been shown to be ambitious to be a chakravartin ... a world conquering Buddhist Emperor (first seen with Emperor Ashoka in India).  So of course, he could have been tried for war crimes.  As a practical matter, and since he was essential for the surrender (Japan being a unique theocratic society), doubly so, he wasn't tried, and retained as a constitutional monarch.

It was primarily the Japanese Army that promised conquest, and when they ran into trouble in China, they drug the Japanese Navy in.  The Emperor personally approved all initial hostilities.  He didn't direct day to day affairs, unlike Hitler.
The cabinet's Liaison Conference formulated policy and it was read aloud in the Imperial Conference. This gave it the imperial seal.  The emperor never spoke during these conferences until after Nagasaki.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 22, 2018, 10:18:47 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The cabinet's Liaison Conference formulated policy and it was read aloud in the Imperial Conference. This gave it the imperial seal.  The emperor never spoke during these conferences until after Nagasaki.

Which is a strange way to govern, but a god king can't speak (without irreversible consequences ... like the Pope (ex cathedra)).  But hardly makes him innocent.  He is at least negligent.  The desire to try and execute the Emperor had a valid point.  Just as vengeance could have been taken against Kaiser Wilhelm (who was much more actively involved, as a Western king).  In both cases vengeance was put aside, for various reasons.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 22, 2018, 11:06:24 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Which is a strange way to govern, but a god king can't speak (without irreversible consequences ... like the Pope (ex cathedra)).  But hardly makes him innocent.  He is at least negligent.  The desire to try and execute the Emperor had a valid point.  Just as vengeance could have been taken against Kaiser Wilhelm (who was much more actively involved, as a Western king).  In both cases vengeance was put aside, for various reasons.
It's the Japanese way to govern. Remember that the Emperor was a figurehead for centuries, the actual rulers used him as a rubber stamp. Hirohito had no actually power, and the militants would have replaced him with one of his brothers if he didn't toe the line.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 22, 2018, 11:08:05 AM
Separate post: The Allies kept Hirohito to stop the expected guerrilla groups from conducting resistance to the occupation.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 22, 2018, 12:40:04 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
It's the Japanese way to govern. Remember that the Emperor was a figurehead for centuries, the actual rulers used him as a rubber stamp. Hirohito had no actually power, and the militants would have replaced him with one of his brothers if he didn't toe the line.

I think you are assuming the Meiji restoration wasn't real, just a show for Shogunate by other means.

King George VI for instance, was a figurehead ... but without his overturning King Edward VII, and supporting Churchill (who had supported King George VI in 1936), then nothing good would have happened, other than the British Empire supporting Hitler from the get go.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 22, 2018, 01:40:03 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I think you are assuming the Meiji restoration wasn't real, just a show for Shogunate by other means.

King George VI for instance, was a figurehead ... but without his overturning King Edward VII, and supporting Churchill (who had supported King George VI in 1936), then nothing good would have happened, other than the British Empire supporting Hitler from the get go.
Count the number of times an Emperor spoke up in the Imperial Conferences. That total was "one".

The military got control of the Japanese government when the constitution was changed to return the offices of War Minister and Navy Minister to active duty officers. After 1932 the Army and/or Navy could bring down a cabinet by simply reassigning the officer who held that Ministerial position. No Prime Minister could be sure of staying in office unless he catered to the military. THAT is where the real power lay.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 22, 2018, 03:43:08 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Count the number of times an Emperor spoke up in the Imperial Conferences. That total was "one".

The military got control of the Japanese government when the constitution was changed to return the offices of War Minister and Navy Minister to active duty officers. After 1932 the Army and/or Navy could bring down a cabinet by simply reassigning the officer who held that Ministerial position. No Prime Minister could be sure of staying in office unless he catered to the military. THAT is where the real power lay.

But is that what the Emperor wanted, acting thru others?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 22, 2018, 03:56:04 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
But is that what the Emperor wanted, acting thru others?
How could we know that?
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 22, 2018, 04:05:50 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
How could we know that?

Exactly ... from the minimalist position.  Since we don't know George Washington's private thoughts or conversations ... it must not have happened.  If one ups the standard for fact in historical description, there isn't too much to know, because needing so many un-conflicted witnesses, and their testimony has to be un-polished for posterity.  Much of the post WW II German general autobiography is too eager to blame Hitler for everything.

http://www.realclearlife.com/history/emperor-hirohito-war-criminal/

History is complicated.  I think Hirohito should be thanked for ending the war with Japan, and assisting the post-war reconstruction.  Japanese cooperation was essential for recovering from the initial defeat of the UN in Korea (Toyota trucks).  Perhaps that makes up (under American occupation) for what the Chinese would have certainly executed him for ... on the theory that the Emperor must take responsibility, not his generals.

The ultimate minimalist position is solipsism ... if I didn't witness it myself, then it didn't happen.  And I am not sure (based on real evidence from criminal cases) that I can believe my lying eyes.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Gawdzilla Sama on December 22, 2018, 04:59:52 PM
Like I said above, the person on the Chrysanthemum Throne was the key to a quick end to the war or an endless guerilla-bedeviled occupation. Regardless of his personal responsibility he was in the position to save many lives and allow Japan to begin to heal.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Minimalist on December 22, 2018, 05:27:25 PM
MacArthur fully understood the emperor's role in the pacification of japan.  MacArthur wasn't above judicially murdering the japanese commanders who beat him but he needed Hirohito.  He didn't need Homma and Yamashita.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 25, 2018, 10:20:51 PM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Like I said above, the person on the Chrysanthemum Throne was the key to a quick end to the war or an endless guerilla-bedeviled occupation. Regardless of his personal responsibility he was in the position to save many lives and allow Japan to begin to heal.

I've enjoyed the thoughtful discussion between you and Baruch.  I knew most of it, but a focused discussion is valuable.

Thank you both.  But you are right...

Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Baruch on December 26, 2018, 12:01:10 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I've enjoyed the thoughtful discussion between you and Baruch.  I knew most of it, but a focused discussion is valuable.

Thank you both.  But you are right...

Real talk leads to real results.  Being a controversialist and a poser, isn't very valuable, but it can be entertaining.
Title: Re: Pearl Harbor day special ...
Post by: Cavebear on December 26, 2018, 01:21:52 AM
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Real talk leads to real results.  Being a controversialist and a poser, isn't very valuable, but it can be entertaining.

In that case, I trust you entertained yourself, controversially.