Couple of guys used refinements to the Drake Equation to calculate that "unless the probability for evolving a civilization on a habitable-zone planet is less than one in 10 billion trillion" we are not the first technologically advanced civilization in the Milky Way galaxy. Although unless the average lifetime of such a civilization is really really long there is a good chance that are we are the only one that exists right now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/opinion/sunday/yes-there-have-been-aliens.html?WT.mc_id=2016-FEB-RET-GRACE&WT.mc_ev=click&ad-keywords=dunning2&_r=0
My father was talking about a book written about this. May be as it is not something I want to be real, I am not sure, I didn't want to get in to it.
It sounds SOOO depressing.
Why don't you want it to be real, and why is it depressing?
I have a hard time believing there aren't other civilizations out there somewhere and think it would be depressing to think we are the only one.
I think the probability of life is high. And even if there are long odds for a technologically-advanced civilization, there's bound to be at least one inside our galaxy. This is important because making contact, even with a dead civilization, would be the biggest achievement our species has ever known. The wealth of scientific knowledge alone... But in order to do that, we have to survive our current problems and develop the technology to get out there. Not an easy feat. But Endless Space is out there, waiting for us.
Without the drake equation, just the fact that our planet has produced a few hominids including Denisovan and Neanderthal man, and several species that exhibit decision making skills, I think the likelihood high. Evolution occurring on any other water bearing planet might well follow similar paths to similar results.
Survival traits exist for each species. Camouflage or coloration, physical skills of escape or attack- a whole host of developments by way of evolution. Among hominids brain size and the use of hands. We can never know if the dinosaurs had survived that there might be sentient reptilian or other forms. But conditions developing in a certain direction would likely lead to similar results.
It took a special combination of circumstances to get just to where we are now. A sentient society going further would similarly need a special combination to reach the point that they can assure the continued existence and advancement of their species. I personally think if there is ever a visit from an alien species, it will be long after our demise. We may become a regeneration experiment, like Jurassic Park, for a future super species.
Too many variables with no values. Wishful thinking at this point.
Its extremely depressing to think that there have been or will be other advanced civilizations out there but since they will never exist at the same time we do, we will never meet them.
Quote from: Nonsensei on June 24, 2016, 07:01:43 PM
Its extremely depressing to think that there have been or will be other advanced civilizations out there but since they will never exist at the same time we do, we will never meet them.
That could be the only thing saving us from being invaded by the Borg. I am not entirely sure being alone is a bad thing, if that's the case.
Quote from: _Xenu_ on June 24, 2016, 07:03:08 PM
That could be the only thing saving us from being invaded by the Borg. I am not entirely sure being alone is a bad thing, if that's the case.
Well the Borg, specifically, can only exist in a target rich environment. So it wouldn't be the Borg.
But as to a dangerous enemy, whatever. One day humanity will be no more. The last human will draw their last breath and that will be it. Whether that happens through sheer entropy or under the assault of a malevolent alien species makes little difference in the grand scheme of things. Personally I would take the chance of hostility if it comes with a chance for something better.
If somebody wants to build an interstellar vessel of enormous capability and fly thousands of light years just to kill/enslave/eat poor old us, I would be very surprised. We aren't worth the time involved, we live on a resource-depleted planet and anything they want they can find or create in outer space.
This kind of discussion is too wildly speculative for me to get involved with. We have no idea what would motivate an advanced civilization to contact us, even assuming they exist, and even if they have a way to do so, because we have no idea what they would want or need. There's just way too many possibilities and unanswered variables for me to get deeply into this. I will grant they are probably AI instead of biological unless a way around the speed of light is found, buts that's too alien a perspective for me to understand. I will let the rest of you continue this conversation and just watch.
Quote from: stromboli on June 24, 2016, 08:23:16 PM
If somebody wants to build an interstellar vessel of enormous capability and fly thousands of light years just to MEET poor old us, I would be very surprised. We aren't worth the time involved, we live on a resource-depleted planet and anything they want they can find or create in outer space.
ftfy
Going to a new world, rich with resources, and with no natives or weak natives ... is as old as the human race. So there is plenty of motivation, and maybe it happens in globular clusters ... where the stars are old and closely packed together.
Key word being "human". We can't possibly know what goes on in an alien mind. But as Gawdzilla pointed out
Quote
Too many variables with no values. Wishful thinking at this point.
We are on the outer arm of the galaxy. It does make more sense to go inward. Going inward the likelihoood of meeting sentient species is greater. Personally don't think we are that special. As the article said, the likelihood of meeting a living species we detect is small. Sheer distance, time of travel, the enormity of building, developing and then utilizing an interstellar craft- a whole lot of reasons it would make no sense.
I'm sure other intelligent aliens would very much want to meet us so that they could debate philosophical issues with us.
Quote from: SGOS on June 25, 2016, 09:37:14 AM
I'm sure other intelligent aliens would very much want to meet us so that they could debate philosophical issues with us.
Thousands of years of travel in a craft that would probably take decades to build to discuss John Locke. You betcha. :biggrin:
Quote from: stromboli on June 25, 2016, 09:20:28 AM
Key word being "human". We can't possibly know what goes on in an alien mind. But as Gawdzilla pointed out
We are on the outer arm of the galaxy. It does make more sense to go inward. Going inward the likelihoood of meeting sentient species is greater. Personally don't think we are that special. As the article said, the likelihood of meeting a living species we detect is small. Sheer distance, time of travel, the enormity of building, developing and then utilizing an interstellar craft- a whole lot of reasons it would make no sense.
Actually we're closer to the middle of of our arm. The radius of the Milky Way is about 50,000 light years, and we are 25,000 to 28,000 light years from the center. Moving to far inward would probably be a bad idea. There are a lot more stars there, but as a result it is also a lot more violent. We'd probably get fried pretty quick with gamma or X-Rays.
Quote from: SGOS on June 25, 2016, 09:37:14 AM
I'm sure other intelligent aliens would very much want to meet us so that they could debate philosophical issues with us.
That is satire, right? Why would they want to discuss issues with primitive ape people who are no longer sociable enough to pick lice off of each other?
Well lets just hope the Vulcans show up before the Klingons. Pretty sure a flak jacket can't stop a Disruptor.... Don't nobody be a broadcastin' no warp signatures, m'kay?
Quote from: SGOS on June 25, 2016, 09:37:14 AM
I'm sure other intelligent aliens would very much want to meet us so that they could debate philosophical issues with us.
In a C&W bar on Saturday night.
Quote from: _Xenu_ on June 24, 2016, 08:47:56 PM
This kind of discussion is too wildly speculative for me to get involved with. We have no idea what would motivate an advanced civilization to contact us, even assuming they exist, and even if they have a way to do so, because we have no idea what they would want or need. There's just way too many possibilities and unanswered variables for me to get deeply into this. I will grant they are probably AI instead of biological unless a way around the speed of light is found, buts that's too alien a perspective for me to understand. I will let the rest of you continue this conversation and just watch.
Then why are you involved????? :))))
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on June 25, 2016, 03:23:39 PM
In a C&W bar on Saturday night.
Are we talking Lamar's Silver Dollar Lounge in upstate New York or Callahan's Crosstime Saloon? In Lamar's place, the ability to throw a punch is kind of a requirement. If they have tentacles that might also be useful.
I read once, that the Kzin were very dangerous in saloon mode ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B65HEhBR-1s
Quote from: stromboli on June 25, 2016, 07:40:16 PM
Are we talking Lamar's Silver Dollar Lounge in upstate New York or Callahan's Crosstime Saloon? In Lamar's place, the ability to throw a punch is kind of a requirement. If they have tentacles that might also be useful.
While Callahan was open to various kinds of music I suspect that if you visited the place on any given night you'd hear blues. ;)